世界是Netflix（NASDAQ：NFLX）牡蛎。到2030年，这是1万亿美元的市值目标的数学

通过云处理处理的视频流将媒体部门变成了真正的全球游戏。 Netflix利用了这个全球派，投资于在欧洲，拉丁美洲，韩国和印度等市场上专门制作视频。

World is oyster for Netflix as it aims for $1 trillion market cap by 2030

世界是Netflix的牡蛎，因为它的目标是到2030年达到1万亿美元的市值

(Image: Getty)

（图片：Getty）

Video streaming processed through the cloud has turned the media sector into a truly worldwide game. This is how Netflix (NASDAQ:) has been able to grow so large, investing to produce video specifically in markets such as Europe, Latin America, South Korea, and India.

通过云处理处理的视频流将媒体部门变成了真正的全球游戏。这就是Netflix（NASDAQ :)能够成长如此大的方式，投资于在欧洲，拉丁美洲，韩国和印度等市场上专门制作视频。

That global expansion is how it eclipsed 300 million total subscribers at the end of 2024, making it the largest pure-play premium video streamer in the world. With a global population of 8 billion and rising use of the internet every year, there is plenty of room to expand its total subscribers in the years to come.

全球扩张是它在2024年底黯然失色的总订阅者的方式，使其成为世界上最大的纯高级视频流媒体。每年的全球人口为80亿，使用互联网的使用量增加，在未来几年中，有足够的空间可以扩大其总订户。

Another factor for success is pricing power. In the U.S., its premium subscription tier has gone from $11.99 a month in 2013 to $24.99 currently. This more than doubling in monthly subscription fees has helped revenue grow by close to 600% in the last 10 years.

成功的另一个因素是定价能力。在美国，其高级订阅层已从2013年的每月11.99美元增加到目前的24.99美元。在过去的10年中，每月订阅费用增加了一倍以上，这使收入增长了近600％。

More importantly, it has helped the company gain some operating leverage over its cost base, with operating income inflecting higher to $11.3 billion in the last few years. Free cash flow is now positive at $7.5 billion over the last 12 months, giving the company the flexibility to keep pushing for more growth globally.

更重要的是，它帮助公司在其成本基础上获得了一些运营杠杆作用，过去几年的营业收入增长到113亿美元。在过去的12个月中，自由现金流现在为75亿美元，使该公司具有继续推动全球增长的灵活性。

NFLX Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.

YCHARTS的NFLX操作保证金（TTM）数据； TTM =落后12个月。

Investors should be aware that these figures are still preliminary and may be revised in the coming months.

投资者应意识到，这些数字仍然是初步的，并且可以在未来几个月内进行修订。

According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, management aims to double its revenue to $80 billion in 2030 and triple its operating income to around $30 billion. Advertising revenue of $9 billion will be a large part of that equation.

根据《华尔街日报》的报道，管理层的目标是将其收入翻一番，达到2030年的800亿美元，并将其营业收入增加三倍，达到300亿美元。广告收入为90亿美元将是该方程式的很大一部分。

How will the company do it? It hopes to grow its total subscribers to 410 million compared to 300 million at the end of 2024. However, that would only lead to about a 30% increase in revenue assuming no changes to subscription pricing.

公司将如何做？它希望将其总订阅者增加到4.1亿，而到2024年底，其总订阅者为3亿美元。但是，假设订阅价格没有变化，则只会导致收入增加约30％。

What this means is that Netflix will need to continue increasing the price of its subscription service while simultaneously growing advertising sales if it hopes to double revenue in the next seven years. This is a tall task, but one it is poised to achieve.

这意味着Netflix将需要继续提高其订阅服务的价格，同时增加广告销售的价格，如果它希望在未来七年内获得一倍的收入。这是一项艰巨的任务，但它有望实现。

Tripling operating income to $30 billion feels doable as well. Expanding operating margins is not something a company can do indefinitely, but N has consistently pushed up its operating margin in the last 10 years, hitting 28% in the last 12 months. I think the company can keep expanding its profit margins as it scales up to greater heights in the years to come.

将营业收入达到300亿美元的三元，这也是可行的。公司无限期可以做到的业务利润率并不是一项无限期的事情，但是N在过去十年中一直在提高其营业利润率，在过去的12个月中达到了28％。我认为，随着未来几年的扩大到更高的高度，该公司可以继续扩大其利润率。

That $30 billion in operating income likely equates to $25 billion in net income when factoring in corporate tax rates. Should N be valued at a trillion-dollar market cap if it generates $25 billion in net income? Maybe. That is a P/E ratio of 40, which is well above the average for stocks, even durable growers like N.

在公司税率方面，这笔300亿美元的营业收入可能相当于250亿美元的净收入。如果n产生250亿美元的净收入，应该在万亿美元的市值中估值吗？或许。这是40个比率，远高于股票的平均值，甚至像N. N.

It is possible, but not a guarantee, that the market cap will double to $1 trillion in the next seven years. We have no idea what the stock's future P/E will be.

在未来七年中，市值将翻一番，达到1万亿美元，这是有可能的，但不能保证。我们不知道该股票的未来是什么。

It still remains a good hold for investors who have bought the stock in the past. However, I don't think N is a strong buy today.

对于过去购买了该股票的投资者来说，这仍然是一个良好的持股。但是，我认为N不是今天的强劲买入。