Nassim Nicholas Taleb對比特幣的批評加倍，將其標記為“技術鬱金香”

儘管近年來比特幣的韌性和創紀錄的表現，但塔利布仍然堅定地說，數字資產從根本上存在缺陷和不可持續的聲明。

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the renowned essayist, statistician, and author of The Black Swan, has once again unleashed a tirade against Bitcoin, this time branding it a “technological tulip” and doubling down on his harsh critique of the cryptocurrency.

著名的散文家，統計學家，《黑天鵝》的作者納西姆·尼古拉斯·塔利布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）再次釋放了反對比特幣的長篇大論，這次將其貼上了“技術鬱金香”的烙印，並將其對他對加密貨幣的嚴厲批評倍增。

Despite Bitcoin’s remarkable resilience and record-breaking performances in recent years, Taleb remains unyielding in his assertion that the digital asset is fundamentally flawed and unsustainable.

儘管近年來比特幣具有出色的韌性和創紀錄的表現，但塔利布仍然斷言數字資產從根本上存在缺陷和不可持續。

Unlike traditional skeptics like Peter Schiff, who have consistently opposed Bitcoin from its early days, Taleb’s perspective carries unique weight. At one point, Taleb was a supporter of Bitcoin, describing it as “the first organic currency.” He also contributed the foreword to Saifedean Ammous’s book The Bitcoin Standard, in which he praised Bitcoin as a potential hedge against government overreach.

與彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）這樣的傳統懷疑論者不同，從早期就一直反對比特幣的傳統懷疑論者，塔萊布（Taleb）的觀點具有獨特的體重。有一次，塔萊布（Taleb）是比特幣的支持者，稱其為“第一種有機貨幣”。他還為塞菲德·普羅姆斯（Saifedean Ammous）的書《比特幣標準》（Bitcoin Standard）貢獻了前言，他稱讚比特幣是針對政府過度的潛在對沖。

However, Taleb’s outlook changed dramatically. By 2021, he began distancing himself from Bitcoin, calling it a speculative asset incapable of functioning as a currency. He published a paper that dismissed Bitcoin’s ability to operate without government backing, labeling its price essentially worthless and its volatility too extreme to serve as a reliable store of value. In his view, Bitcoin’s high risk and lack of stability undermine its usefulness as a hedge against systemic financial shocks.

但是，塔萊布的前景發生了巨大變化。到2021年，他開始遠離比特幣，稱其為投機資產，無法用作貨幣。他發表了一篇論文，該論文駁回了比特幣在沒有政府支持的情況下運營的能力，標記其價格本質上是毫無價值的，而波動性的極端性太極為是可靠的價值存儲。他認為，比特幣的高風險和缺乏穩定性破壞了它的實用性，作為抵抗系統性財務衝擊的對沖。

Taleb’s criticism goes deeper than economics. He has described Bitcoin as a “cult” and likened its supporters to irrational speculators from the infamous Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century. This comparison is not incidental — calling Bitcoin a “technological tulip” is a direct reference to the historical bubble often cited as one of the first major speculative frenzies in financial history. The implication is clear: Taleb sees Bitcoin as being driven by hype rather than intrinsic value or technological necessity.

塔勒布的批評比經濟學更深入。他將比特幣描述為“邪教”，並將其支持者比作非理性的投機者，來自臭名昭著的17世紀荷蘭鬱金香狂熱。這種比較並不是偶然的 - 將比特幣稱為“技術鬱金香”是直接引用的歷史泡沫通常被認為是財務歷史上第一個主要的投機性瘋狂之一。這意味著很明顯：Taleb認為比特幣是由炒作驅動的，而不是內在的價值或技術必要性。

In one of his most scathing assessments in 2023, Taleb went as far as to claim that Bitcoin is a “detector of imbeciles,” suggesting that its widespread popularity reveals a lack of financial literacy and rational thinking. His contempt for the crypto culture is evident, and his dismissal of the coin’s long-term prospects is equally harsh. Even as Bitcoin surged in value and gained more institutional acceptance, Taleb maintained that it fails to meet the standards of a serious monetary instrument.

在他2023年最嚴厲的評估之一中，塔利布（Taleb）甚至聲稱比特幣是“ imbeciles的探測者”，這表明其廣泛的受歡迎程度表明缺乏金融知識和理性思維。他對加密文化的蔑視是顯而易見的，他對硬幣的長期前景的解僱同樣苛刻。即使比特幣的價值激增並獲得了更多的機構認可，塔萊布仍堅持認為，它無法滿足嚴重的貨幣工具的標準。

Some critics argue that Taleb’s turn against Bitcoin may be as personal as it is ideological. His falling out with Ammous and a broader disillusionment with the Bitcoin community may have contributed to his increasingly hostile tone. However, the intensity of Taleb’s rhetoric is a testament to the strong feelings that are often generated in the world of cryptocurrencies.

一些批評家認為，塔勒布（Taleb）反對比特幣的人可能是意識形態上的個人化。他因比特幣社區的寬容和更廣泛的幻滅而陷入困境，這可能導致了他日益敵對的基調。但是，塔勒布（Taleb）的言論的強度證明了加密貨幣世界中經常產生的強烈感覺。

As the Bitcoin narrative continues to unfold, it will be interesting to see how Taleb’s perspective evolves. His criticisms, though harsh, raise valid questions that enthusiasts may be quick to dismiss in their zeal for the cryptocurrency.

隨著比特幣敘事繼續展開，看到塔萊布的觀點如何發展將很有趣。他的批評雖然很苛刻，但提出了有效的問題，即發燒友可能很快就對加密貨幣的熱情駁斥。