Nassim Nicholas Taleb对比特币的批评加倍，将其标记为“技术郁金香”

尽管近年来比特币的韧性和创纪录的表现，但塔利布仍然坚定地说，数字资产从根本上存在缺陷和不可持续的声明。

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the renowned essayist, statistician, and author of The Black Swan, has once again unleashed a tirade against Bitcoin, this time branding it a “technological tulip” and doubling down on his harsh critique of the cryptocurrency.

著名的散文家，统计学家，《黑天鹅》的作者纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔利布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）再次释放了反对比特币的长篇大论，这次将其贴上了“技术郁金香”的烙印，并将其对他对加密货币的严厉批评倍增。

Despite Bitcoin’s remarkable resilience and record-breaking performances in recent years, Taleb remains unyielding in his assertion that the digital asset is fundamentally flawed and unsustainable.

尽管近年来比特币具有出色的韧性和创纪录的表现，但塔利布仍然断言数字资产从根本上存在缺陷和不可持续。

Unlike traditional skeptics like Peter Schiff, who have consistently opposed Bitcoin from its early days, Taleb’s perspective carries unique weight. At one point, Taleb was a supporter of Bitcoin, describing it as “the first organic currency.” He also contributed the foreword to Saifedean Ammous’s book The Bitcoin Standard, in which he praised Bitcoin as a potential hedge against government overreach.

与彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）这样的传统怀疑论者不同，从早期就一直反对比特币的传统怀疑论者，塔莱布（Taleb）的观点具有独特的体重。有一次，塔莱布（Taleb）是比特币的支持者，称其为“第一种有机货币”。他还为塞菲德·普罗姆斯（Saifedean Ammous）的书《比特币标准》（Bitcoin Standard）贡献了前言，他称赞比特币是针对政府过度的潜在对冲。

However, Taleb’s outlook changed dramatically. By 2021, he began distancing himself from Bitcoin, calling it a speculative asset incapable of functioning as a currency. He published a paper that dismissed Bitcoin’s ability to operate without government backing, labeling its price essentially worthless and its volatility too extreme to serve as a reliable store of value. In his view, Bitcoin’s high risk and lack of stability undermine its usefulness as a hedge against systemic financial shocks.

但是，塔莱布的前景发生了巨大变化。到2021年，他开始远离比特币，称其为投机资产，无法用作货币。他发表了一篇论文，该论文驳回了比特币在没有政府支持的情况下运营的能力，标记其价格本质上是毫无价值的，而波动性的极端性太极为是可靠的价值存储。他认为，比特币的高风险和缺乏稳定性破坏了它的实用性，作为抵抗系统性财务冲击的对冲。

Taleb’s criticism goes deeper than economics. He has described Bitcoin as a “cult” and likened its supporters to irrational speculators from the infamous Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century. This comparison is not incidental — calling Bitcoin a “technological tulip” is a direct reference to the historical bubble often cited as one of the first major speculative frenzies in financial history. The implication is clear: Taleb sees Bitcoin as being driven by hype rather than intrinsic value or technological necessity.

塔勒布的批评比经济学更深入。他将比特币描述为“邪教”，并将其支持者比作非理性的投机者，来自臭名昭著的17世纪荷兰郁金香狂热。这种比较并不是偶然的 - 将比特币称为“技术郁金香”是直接引用的历史泡沫通常被认为是财务历史上第一个主要的投机性疯狂之一。这意味着很明显：Taleb认为比特币是由炒作驱动的，而不是内在的价值或技术必要性。

In one of his most scathing assessments in 2023, Taleb went as far as to claim that Bitcoin is a “detector of imbeciles,” suggesting that its widespread popularity reveals a lack of financial literacy and rational thinking. His contempt for the crypto culture is evident, and his dismissal of the coin’s long-term prospects is equally harsh. Even as Bitcoin surged in value and gained more institutional acceptance, Taleb maintained that it fails to meet the standards of a serious monetary instrument.

在他2023年最严厉的评估之一中，塔利布（Taleb）甚至声称比特币是“ imbeciles的探测者”，这表明其广泛的受欢迎程度表明缺乏金融知识和理性思维。他对加密文化的蔑视是显而易见的，他对硬币的长期前景的解雇同样苛刻。即使比特币的价值激增并获得了更多的机构认可，塔莱布仍坚持认为，它无法满足严重的货币工具的标准。

Some critics argue that Taleb’s turn against Bitcoin may be as personal as it is ideological. His falling out with Ammous and a broader disillusionment with the Bitcoin community may have contributed to his increasingly hostile tone. However, the intensity of Taleb’s rhetoric is a testament to the strong feelings that are often generated in the world of cryptocurrencies.

一些批评家认为，塔勒布（Taleb）反对比特币的人可能是意识形态上的个人化。他因比特币社区的宽容和更广泛的幻灭而陷入困境，这可能导致了他日益敌对的基调。但是，塔勒布（Taleb）的言论的强度证明了加密货币世界中经常产生的强烈感觉。

As the Bitcoin narrative continues to unfold, it will be interesting to see how Taleb’s perspective evolves. His criticisms, though harsh, raise valid questions that enthusiasts may be quick to dismiss in their zeal for the cryptocurrency.

随着比特币叙事继续展开，看到塔莱布的观点如何发展将很有趣。他的批评虽然很苛刻，但提出了有效的问题，即发烧友可能很快就对加密货币的热情驳斥。