基於美國通膨數據對比特幣價格的預期不一

標普500指數期貨自9月6日觸及低點以來上漲1.4%，投資人對聯準會降息信心增強

Bitcoin ( BTC) price experienced a 7% decline over two days, beginning on September 5 and reaching a low of $54,000 on September 7. However, BTC managed to maintain a daily closing price above $54,000 and later recovered some of its losses, trading at $55,300 at the time of writing.

比特幣（BTC）價格從9 月5 日開始，在兩天內下跌了7%，並於9 月7 日觸及54,000 美元的低點。部分失地，交易價格為在撰寫本文時為 55,300 美元。

This movement largely mirrored the price action in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 futures rising 1.4% since hitting a low on September 6. The broader optimism among investors appeared to stem from an increasing likelihood that the U.S. central bank will begin cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy in the coming months.

這一走勢在很大程度上反映了全球股市的價格走勢，標準普爾500 指數期貨自9 月6 日觸及低點以來上漲了1.4%。的可能性越來越大以刺激未來幾個月的經濟。

Economists are predicting a slowdown in inflation, which has been a key hurdle for the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt a less restrictive monetary policy stance. A 2.6% year-over-year U.S. CPI increase is anticipated for August, with the report due on September 11.

經濟學家預期通膨將放緩，這是聯準會採取寬鬆貨幣政策立場的一個主要障礙。預計 8 月美國 CPI 年增 2.6%，報告將於 9 月 11 日發布。

While lower inflation could intuitively be expected to impact Bitcoin negatively — given that part of its appeal has been its hedging capability against inflation due to its fixed monetary policy — some analysts believe that BTC price does benefit from increased liquidity in the system as both institutions and individuals gain access to cheaper capital and yields on fixed-income investments decline.

雖然直觀上預期較低的通膨會對比特幣產生負面影響——考慮到其吸引力的部分原因在於其固定貨幣政策對通膨的對沖能力——一些分析師認為，比特幣價格確實受益於系統流動性的增加，因為機構和機構都在增加流動性。

A chart from user apsk32 on X social media appeared to demonstrate that the previous cycle of interest rate cuts in the U.S., beginning in 2019, initially spurred bullish momentum for Bitcoin, although this proved unsustainable in the medium term.

X 社群媒體上用戶 apsk32 的圖表似乎表明，美國從 2019 年開始的上一輪降息最初刺激了比特幣的看漲勢頭，儘管這在中期被證明是不可持續的。

However, the analyst suggested that a potential correction to the $45,000 to $55,000 range could offer an excellent entry point for "the survivors."

然而，分析師表示，45,000 美元至 55,000 美元區間的潛在修正可能為「倖存者」提供絕佳的切入點。

Thus, any bullish predictions for BTC price movements due to a decline in interest rates should be approached with skepticism. Some would argue that Bitcoin faces its greatest competition from tech stocks, whether due to extended periods of correlation between the two assets or simply because these companies provide a cash flow and growth opportunity in a market where both are scarce.

因此，任何因利率下降而對比特幣價格走勢的看漲預測都應該持懷疑態度。有些人認為，比特幣面臨著來自科技股的最大競爭，無論是因為這兩種資產之間的長期相關性，還是僅僅因為這些公司在兩者都稀缺的市場中提供了現金流和成長機會。

U.S. presidential election may boost Bitcoin priceWhile the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve are undoubtedly impactful, investor focus is also shifting toward the U.S. presidential election in November.

美國總統大選或提振比特幣價格 雖然聯準會的貨幣政策無疑具有影響力，但投資者的焦點也轉向11月的美國總統大選。

The Republican party and former President Donald Trump have proposed imposing 100% import tariffs on countries that decide to bypass the U.S. dollar in international transactions.

共和黨和前總統川普提議對決定在國際交易中繞過美元的國家徵收 100% 的進口關稅。

Recently, several nations, including China, India, Brazil, and Russia, have considered moving away from the U.S. dollar by using cross-collateral transactions. In response, candidate Trump promised to uphold the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s preferred reserve currency at a rally in Wisconsin on September 7, as reported by Bloomberg.

最近，包括中國、印度、巴西和俄羅斯在內的多個國家已考慮透過使用交叉抵押品交易來擺脫美元。根據彭博社報道，作為回應，候選人川普在 9 月 7 日威斯康辛州的集會上承諾維護美元作為世界首選儲備貨幣的地位。

According to Yahoo Finance, Ulrich Leuchtmann, a strategist at Commerzbank AG, said that Trump's plan might inadvertently encourage countries to “move away from the dollar,” which could also undermine the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries. Leuchtmann's comments were shared in a note on Friday, September 7.

根據雅虎財經報道，德國商業銀行策略師Ulrich Leuchtmann表示，川普的計劃可能會無意中鼓勵各國“放棄美元”，這也可能損害美國國債的避險地位。 Leuchtmann 的評論在 9 月 7 日星期五的一份報告中得到了分享。

“Statements made on the campaign trail should be treated with caution as they don't always translate into policy,” Leuchtmann advised investors, regarding Trump's statements on the matter.

關於川普就此事發表的聲明，洛伊特曼建議投資者「應謹慎對待競選過程中發表的聲明，因為它們並不總是轉化為政策」。

From a Bitcoin investment perspective, a weaker U.S. dollar is generally considered bullish for BTC price, although it does not assure that Bitcoin will outperform traditional stores of value like gold, stocks, or real estate. However, the resilience of Bitcoin's primary derivatives demand metric should be viewed as a positive indicator.

從比特幣投資的角度來看，美元走軟通常被認為有利於比特幣價格，儘管這並不能保證比特幣的表現會優於黃金、股票或房地產等傳統價值儲存手段。然而，比特幣主要衍生性商品需求指標的彈性應被視為一個正面指標。

Bitcoin derivatives held firm despite recent price correctionBitcoin monthly futures inherently carry a cost due to their extended settlement periods, with sellers typically demanding a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for this risk.

儘管近期價格調整，比特幣衍生性商品仍保持堅挺。

The annualized Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) has stabilized at 6%, indicating that demand for leveraged bets on a price decline has remained consistent over the past week. Although this level is below the more bullish 8% from four weeks ago, the data suggests a robust market that is supporting the strength of the $54,000 support level despite recent price volatility.

年化比特幣期貨溢價（基差率）穩定在 6%，顯示過去一周對價格下跌的槓桿押注需求保持一致。儘管這一水平低於四周前更為看漲的 8%，但數據表明，儘管最近價格波動，但市場仍然強勁，支撐著 54,000 美元的支撐位。

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

這裡表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者的觀點，不一定反映Cointelegraph的觀點。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險。做出決定時您應該進行自己的研究。