基于美国通胀数据对比特币价格的预期不一

标准普尔500指数期货自9月6日触及低点以来​​上涨1.4%，投资者对美联储降息信心增强

Bitcoin ( BTC) price experienced a 7% decline over two days, beginning on September 5 and reaching a low of $54,000 on September 7. However, BTC managed to maintain a daily closing price above $54,000 and later recovered some of its losses, trading at $55,300 at the time of writing.

比特币（BTC）价格从 9 月 5 日开始，在两天内下跌了 7%，并于 9 月 7 日触及 54,000 美元的低点。不过，BTC 成功维持每日收盘价在 54,000 美元以上，随后收复部分失地，交易价格为在撰写本文时为 55,300 美元。

This movement largely mirrored the price action in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 futures rising 1.4% since hitting a low on September 6. The broader optimism among investors appeared to stem from an increasing likelihood that the U.S. central bank will begin cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy in the coming months.

这一走势在很大程度上反映了全球股市的价格走势，标准普尔 500 指数期货自 9 月 6 日触及低点以来​​上涨了 1.4%。投资者更广泛的乐观情绪似乎源于美联储开始降息的可能性越来越大以刺激未来几个月的经济。

Economists are predicting a slowdown in inflation, which has been a key hurdle for the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt a less restrictive monetary policy stance. A 2.6% year-over-year U.S. CPI increase is anticipated for August, with the report due on September 11.

经济学家预测通胀将放缓，这是美联储采取宽松货币政策立场的一个关键障碍。预计 8 月份美国 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，报告将于 9 月 11 日发布。

While lower inflation could intuitively be expected to impact Bitcoin negatively — given that part of its appeal has been its hedging capability against inflation due to its fixed monetary policy — some analysts believe that BTC price does benefit from increased liquidity in the system as both institutions and individuals gain access to cheaper capital and yields on fixed-income investments decline.

虽然直观上预计较低的通胀会对比特币产生负面影响——考虑到其吸引力的部分原因在于其固定货币政策对通胀的对冲能力——一些分析师认为，比特币价格确实受益于系统流动性的增加，因为机构和机构都在增加流动性。个人可以获得更便宜的资本，固定收益投资的收益率下降。

A chart from user apsk32 on X social media appeared to demonstrate that the previous cycle of interest rate cuts in the U.S., beginning in 2019, initially spurred bullish momentum for Bitcoin, although this proved unsustainable in the medium term.

X 社交媒体上用户 apsk32 的图表似乎表明，美国从 2019 年开始的上一轮降息最初刺激了比特币的看涨势头，尽管这在中期被证明是不可持续的。

However, the analyst suggested that a potential correction to the $45,000 to $55,000 range could offer an excellent entry point for "the survivors."

然而，分析师表示，45,000 美元至 55,000 美元区间的潜在修正可能为“幸存者”提供绝佳的切入点。

Thus, any bullish predictions for BTC price movements due to a decline in interest rates should be approached with skepticism. Some would argue that Bitcoin faces its greatest competition from tech stocks, whether due to extended periods of correlation between the two assets or simply because these companies provide a cash flow and growth opportunity in a market where both are scarce.

因此，任何因利率下降而对比特币价格走势的看涨预测都应该持怀疑态度。一些人认为，比特币面临着来自科技股的最大竞争，无论是因为这两种资产之间的长期相关性，还是仅仅因为这些公司在两者都稀缺的市场中提供了现金流和增长机会。

U.S. presidential election may boost Bitcoin priceWhile the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve are undoubtedly impactful, investor focus is also shifting toward the U.S. presidential election in November.

美国总统大选或提振比特币价格 虽然美联储的货币政策无疑具有影响力，但投资者的焦点也转向11月的美国总统大选。

The Republican party and former President Donald Trump have proposed imposing 100% import tariffs on countries that decide to bypass the U.S. dollar in international transactions.

共和党和前总统唐纳德·特朗普提议对决定在国际交易中绕过美元的国家征收 100% 的进口关税。

Recently, several nations, including China, India, Brazil, and Russia, have considered moving away from the U.S. dollar by using cross-collateral transactions. In response, candidate Trump promised to uphold the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s preferred reserve currency at a rally in Wisconsin on September 7, as reported by Bloomberg.

最近，包括中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯在内的多个国家已考虑通过使用交叉抵押品交易来摆脱美元。据彭博社报道，作为回应，候选人特朗普在 9 月 7 日威斯康星州的集会上承诺维护美元作为世界首选储备货币的地位。

According to Yahoo Finance, Ulrich Leuchtmann, a strategist at Commerzbank AG, said that Trump's plan might inadvertently encourage countries to “move away from the dollar,” which could also undermine the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries. Leuchtmann's comments were shared in a note on Friday, September 7.

据雅虎财经报道，德国商业银行策略师Ulrich Leuchtmann表示，特朗普的计划可能会无意中鼓励各国“放弃美元”，这也可能损害美国国债的避险地位。 Leuchtmann 的评论在 9 月 7 日星期五的一份报告中得到了分享。

“Statements made on the campaign trail should be treated with caution as they don't always translate into policy,” Leuchtmann advised investors, regarding Trump's statements on the matter.

关于特朗普就此事发表的声明，洛伊特曼建议投资者“应谨慎对待竞选过程中发表的声明，因为它们并不总是转化为政策”。

From a Bitcoin investment perspective, a weaker U.S. dollar is generally considered bullish for BTC price, although it does not assure that Bitcoin will outperform traditional stores of value like gold, stocks, or real estate. However, the resilience of Bitcoin's primary derivatives demand metric should be viewed as a positive indicator.

从比特币投资的角度来看，美元走软通常被认为有利于比特币价格，尽管这并不能保证比特币的表现会优于黄金、股票或房地产等传统价值储存手段。然而，比特币主要衍生品需求指标的弹性应被视为一个积极指标。

Bitcoin derivatives held firm despite recent price correctionBitcoin monthly futures inherently carry a cost due to their extended settlement periods, with sellers typically demanding a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for this risk.

尽管近期价格调整，比特币衍生品仍保持坚挺。由于结算期较长，比特币月度期货本身就存在成本，卖家通常要求 5% 至 10% 的年化溢价来补偿这种风险。

The annualized Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) has stabilized at 6%, indicating that demand for leveraged bets on a price decline has remained consistent over the past week. Although this level is below the more bullish 8% from four weeks ago, the data suggests a robust market that is supporting the strength of the $54,000 support level despite recent price volatility.

年化比特币期货溢价（基差率）稳定在 6%，表明过去一周对价格下跌的杠杆押注需求保持一致。尽管这一水平低于四周前更为看涨的 8%，但数据表明，尽管最近价格波动，但市场依然强劲，支撑着 54,000 美元的支撑位。

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

这里表达的观点和意见仅代表作者的观点，并不一定反映Cointelegraph的观点。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险。做出决定时您应该进行自己的研究。