E-mini S&P（九月）/E-mini NQ（九月）

S&P，上週收盤：收盤價 5370.25，週五漲 22.00，週跌 5.75NQ，上週收盤：收盤價 18,616.00，週五漲 90.75，週跌 59.75

E-mini S&P futures in the chart above. A rally out of VIX spikes to 50 in August 2015 and February 2018, but beware of a retest.

上圖的 E-mini S&P 期貨。 VIX 的反彈在 2015 年 8 月和 2018 年 2 月飆升至 50，但要小心重新測試。

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

E-mini S&P（九月）/E-mini NQ（九月）

S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5370.25, up 22.00 on Friday and down 5.75 on the week

標普上週收盤：結算價 5370.25，週五上漲 22.00，本週下跌 5.75

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,616.00, up 90.75 on Friday and 59.75 on the week

NQ，上週收盤：收在18,616.00，週五上漲90.75，本週上漲59.75

Inflation and the consumer will be front and center this week, but we also see equally important anecdotes driving markets, which I will get to next. Today at 10:00 am CT, the NY Fed will release 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations. Fed Chair Powell has called inflation expectations a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think about it: if everyone expects gas prices to be higher next week, they will be filling the car this week and thus driving prices higher. Tomorrow morning, we will get the July PPI report before CPI Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. The July Retail Sales report and earnings from Home Depot will also be released tomorrow morning. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is due Thursday.

通貨膨脹和消費者將成為本週的焦點，但我們也看到同樣重要的推動市場的軼事，我將在接下來介紹。今天中部時間上午 10:00，紐約聯邦儲備銀行將發布一年期消費者通膨預期。聯準會主席鮑威爾稱通膨預期是一個自我實現的預言。想想看：如果每個人都預計下週汽油價格會更高，那麼他們就會在本週給汽車加油，從而推高價格。明天早上，我們將在周三 CPI 之前得到 7 月 PPI 報告。請記住，生產者價格是消費者價格的領先指標。 7 月零售銷售報告和家得寶 (Home Depot) 收益也將於明天上午發布。全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪將於週四上市。

Markets will ebb and flow in response to this data, but we do believe last Monday’s volatility event laid the groundwork for higher prices in the weeks to come, barring a severe escalation in geopolitical tensions. The Olympics’ closing ceremony was yesterday, and it is important to remember that only days after the 2022 Winter Olympics closed in China, Russia invaded Ukraine. Tensions are running hotter between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East than in recent weeks. As for the volatility spike, last week, we compared the event to August 2015 and February 2018. Outside of the pandemic, these were the last two instances the VIX hit 50, and upon such, it also marked a low in the S&P. It is important to understand that after a significant rally in the weeks to come during both instances, we did see a retest into the range of the session in which the VIX hit 50. Are we in the clear? Certainly not. However, the VIX is now trading at 20, and upon volatility suppression, it is very reasonable to expect the market to drift higher, at minimum, at least for a trade.

市場將根據這些數據而波動，但我們確實相信上週一的波動事件為未來幾週價格上漲奠定了基礎，除非地緣政治緊張局勢嚴重升級。奧運閉幕式於昨天舉行，重要的是要記住，2022 年冬季奧運在中國閉幕後僅幾天，俄羅斯就入侵了烏克蘭。俄羅斯-烏克蘭和中東之間的緊張局勢比最近幾週更加緊張。至於波動性飆升，上週我們將這一事件與2015 年8 月和2018 年2 月進行了比較。普爾指數的低點。重要的是要明白，在這兩種情況下，在接下來的幾週內大幅上漲之後，我們確實看到了 VIX 指數再次觸及 50 的交易區間。當然不是。然而，VIX 目前交易價格為 20，在波動性受到抑制的情況下，預計市場至少會走高是非常合理的，至少對於一筆交易來說是如此。

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are extending their range higher ahead of the U.S. open. We are looking for the first 30-60 minutes after the bell to help define an acceptance of the higher range and usher in continued buying. We must see the E-mini S&P hold out above major three-star support at 5359.35-5366.50 and positively digest a retest into our Pivot and point of balance at 5370.25-5376, which aligns with settlement from August 2nd.

E-mini S&P 和 E-mini NQ 期貨在美國開盤前擴大其區間走高。我們正在尋找盤後前 30-60 分鐘的時間，以幫助確定較高區間的接受度並迎來持續的買盤。我們必須看到 E-mini 標準普爾指數守住主要三星級支撐位 5359.35-5366.50，並積極消化對樞軸點和平衡點 5370.25-5376 的重新測試，該點與 8 月 2 日的結算價一致。