E-mini S&P（九月）/E-mini NQ（九月）

S&P，上周收盘：收盘价 5370.25，周五涨 22.00，周跌 5.75NQ，上周收盘：收盘价 18,616.00，周五涨 90.75，周跌 59.75

E-mini S&P futures in the chart above. A rally out of VIX spikes to 50 in August 2015 and February 2018, but beware of a retest.

上图中的 E-mini S&P 期货。 VIX 的反弹在 2015 年 8 月和 2018 年 2 月飙升至 50，但要小心重新测试。

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

E-mini S&P（九月）/E-mini NQ（九月）

S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5370.25, up 22.00 on Friday and down 5.75 on the week

标普上周收盘：结算价 5370.25，周五上涨 22.00，本周下跌 5.75

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,616.00, up 90.75 on Friday and 59.75 on the week

NQ，上周收盘：收于18,616.00，周五上涨90.75，本周上涨59.75

Inflation and the consumer will be front and center this week, but we also see equally important anecdotes driving markets, which I will get to next. Today at 10:00 am CT, the NY Fed will release 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations. Fed Chair Powell has called inflation expectations a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think about it: if everyone expects gas prices to be higher next week, they will be filling the car this week and thus driving prices higher. Tomorrow morning, we will get the July PPI report before CPI Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. The July Retail Sales report and earnings from Home Depot will also be released tomorrow morning. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is due Thursday.

通货膨胀和消费者将成为本周的焦点，但我们也看到同样重要的推动市场的轶事，我将在接下来介绍。今天中部时间上午 10:00，纽约联储将发布一年期消费者通胀预期。美联储主席鲍威尔称通胀预期是一个自我实现的预言。想想看：如果每个人都预计下周汽油价格会更高，那么他们就会在本周给汽车加油，从而推高价格。明天早上，我们将在周三 CPI 之前公布 7 月 PPI 报告。请记住，生产者价格是消费者价格的领先指标。 7 月份零售销售报告和家得宝 (Home Depot) 收益也将于明天上午发布。全球最大的零售商沃尔玛将于周四上市。

Markets will ebb and flow in response to this data, but we do believe last Monday’s volatility event laid the groundwork for higher prices in the weeks to come, barring a severe escalation in geopolitical tensions. The Olympics’ closing ceremony was yesterday, and it is important to remember that only days after the 2022 Winter Olympics closed in China, Russia invaded Ukraine. Tensions are running hotter between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East than in recent weeks. As for the volatility spike, last week, we compared the event to August 2015 and February 2018. Outside of the pandemic, these were the last two instances the VIX hit 50, and upon such, it also marked a low in the S&P. It is important to understand that after a significant rally in the weeks to come during both instances, we did see a retest into the range of the session in which the VIX hit 50. Are we in the clear? Certainly not. However, the VIX is now trading at 20, and upon volatility suppression, it is very reasonable to expect the market to drift higher, at minimum, at least for a trade.

市场将根据这些数据而波动，但我们确实相信上周一的波动事件为未来几周价格上涨奠定了基础，除非地缘政治紧张局势严重升级。奥运会闭幕式于昨天举行，重要的是要记住，2022 年冬奥会在中国闭幕后仅几天，俄罗斯就入侵了乌克兰。俄罗斯-乌克兰和中东之间的紧张局势比最近几周更加紧张。至于波动性飙升，上周我们将这一事件与 2015 年 8 月和 2018 年 2 月进行了比较。在大流行之外，这是 VIX 最后两次触及 50 的情况，因此，它也标志着标准普尔指数的低点。重要的是要明白，在这两种情况下，在接下来的几周内大幅上涨之后，我们确实看到了 VIX 指数再次触及 50 的交易区间。我们已经安全了吗？当然不是。然而，VIX 目前交易价格为 20，在波动性受到抑制的情况下，预计市场至少会走高是非常合理的，至少对于一笔交易来说是这样。

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are extending their range higher ahead of the U.S. open. We are looking for the first 30-60 minutes after the bell to help define an acceptance of the higher range and usher in continued buying. We must see the E-mini S&P hold out above major three-star support at 5359.35-5366.50 and positively digest a retest into our Pivot and point of balance at 5370.25-5376, which aligns with settlement from August 2nd.

E-mini S&P 和 E-mini NQ 期货在美国开盘前扩大其区间走高。我们正在寻找盘后前 30-60 分钟的时间，以帮助确定较高区间的接受度并迎来持续的买盘。我们必须看到 E-mini 标准普尔指数守住主要三星级支撑位 5359.35-5366.50，并积极消化对枢轴点和平衡点 5370.25-5376 的重新测试，该点与 8 月 2 日的结算价一致。