摩根大通看到前所未有的改變正在醞釀

全球投行摩根大通週五發布報告，強調美國大選對稅收政策、政府債務和市場穩定的潛在影響

Global investment bank JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) offered a report on Friday to help investors approach the upcoming U.S. election as it pertains to tax policy, government debt, and market stability.

全球投資銀行摩根大通（NYSE：JPM）週五發布了一份報告，以幫助投資者應對即將到來的美國大選，因為它涉及稅收政策、政府債務和市場穩定。

According to JPMorgan analysts, key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire in 2025, at which point Congress will likely revisit tax policy. If the measures are not extended, personal tax rates will revert higher, and it would result in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all U.S. households, as well as a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of earners.

摩根大通分析師表示，2017 年減稅和就業法案 (TCJA) 的關鍵條款將於 2025 年到期，屆時國會可能會重新審視稅收政策。如果這些措施不延長，個人稅率將恢復更高，這將導致所有美國家庭的稅後收入減少1.8%，收入最高的1%人口的稅後收入減少3.1%。

In all, if the temporary provisions in the TCJA expire, personal tax rates would revert higher, and it would result in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all U.S. households, as well as a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of earners.

總而言之，如果TCJA的臨時規定到期，個人稅率將恢復更高，這將導致所有美國家庭的稅後收入減少1.8%，最富有的1%的人的稅後收入減少3.1%的賺錢者。

Given this, JPMorgan anticipates an effort from both parties to push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, although the specifics will depend on the election’s outcome.

有鑑於此，摩根大通預計兩黨都會努力推動至少部分延長 TCJA，但具體細節將取決於選舉結果。

Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan anticipates an increase under either candidate’s proposals, with potential impacts on bond yields. The report describes: “If all of the policy proposals from the campaign trail become reality (unlikely), the deficit could increase by over $1 trillion over the next 10 years under Kamala Harris, and by nearly $4 trillion under Donald Trump. This is why it makes some sense that bond yields have increased along with the odds of a Republican sweep.”

關於國家赤字，摩根大通預計，兩位候選人的提議都會增加國家赤字，並對債券殖利率產生潛在影響。報告描述：「如果競選過程中的所有政策建議都成為現實（不太可能），那麼在卡馬拉·哈里斯的領導下，未來10年赤字可能會增加超過1萬億美元，而在唐納德·川普的領導下，赤字可能會增加近4兆美元。這就是為什麼債券收益率隨著共和黨大獲全勝的可能性而上升是有道理的。

While debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan suggested that some fears may be overstated. The report explains:

儘管債務擔憂顯而易見，但摩根大通表示，一些擔憂可能被誇大了。報告解釋：

While we view the debt and deficit trajectory as a risk, we think some of the fear is misplaced. In fact, current all-in yields give investors a second bite at the apple. For anyone who felt they missed the opportunity to add to core bonds, this may be your second chance.

雖然我們將債務和赤字軌跡視為一種風險，但我們認為有些擔憂是多餘的。事實上，目前的總收益率讓投資者再次嚐到了蘋果的甜頭。對於那些覺得自己錯過了增加核心債券機會的人來說，這可能是你的第二次機會。

JPMorgan also addressed the possibility of an extended or contested election, noting: “It is difficult to say when we will know who won this election, and it’s possible that we may not have a clear answer for a week or two. In the event of a close election, we would expect to see court challenges and other legal action through the end of the year. It is important to also note that the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act is meant to strengthen the mechanisms that ensure a clear implementation of election results.”

摩根大通也談到了延長選舉或有爭議的選舉的可能性，並指出：「很難說我們什麼時候會知道誰贏得了這次選舉，而且我們可能一兩週內都沒有明確的答案。如果選舉結果勢均力敵，我們預計到年底都會面臨法庭挑戰和其他法律訴訟。還需要注意的是，2022 年選舉計數改革法案旨在加強確保選舉結果明確執行的機制。

However, the analysts advised investors: “Equity market volatility tends to fall relatively quickly after the new composition of government is confirmed, and on average, equities are higher 12 months after the election. Said differently, don’t let an election derail your plans—election outcomes don’t drive market returns over the long run.”

不過，分析師建議投資人：「新政府組成確定後，股市波動往往會相對較快下降，平均而言，大選後 12 個月股市走高。換句話說，不要讓選舉破壞你的計劃——從長遠來看，選舉結果不會推動市場回報。

This week, JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, also predicted that a Trump victory could drive retail investors toward risk assets, potentially boosting prices for bitcoin and gold as part of a broader “debasement trade.”

本週，以董事總經理Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 為首的摩根大通分析師也預測，川普的勝利可能會推動散戶投資者轉向風險資產，作為更廣泛的「貶值交易」的一部分，可能會推高比特幣和黃金的價格。