摩根大通看到前所未有的变化正在酝酿

全球投行摩根大通周五发布报告，强调美国大选对税收政策、政府债务和市场稳定的潜在影响

Global investment bank JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) offered a report on Friday to help investors approach the upcoming U.S. election as it pertains to tax policy, government debt, and market stability.

全球投资银行摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）周五发布了一份报告，以帮助投资者应对即将到来的美国大选，因为它涉及税收政策、政府债务和市场稳定。

According to JPMorgan analysts, key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire in 2025, at which point Congress will likely revisit tax policy. If the measures are not extended, personal tax rates will revert higher, and it would result in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all U.S. households, as well as a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of earners.

摩根大通分析师表示，2017 年减税和就业法案 (TCJA) 的关键条款将于 2025 年到期，届时国会可能会重新审视税收政策。如果这些措施不延长，个人税率将恢复更高，这将导致所有美国家庭的税后收入减少1.8%，收入最高的1%人群的税后收入减少3.1%。

In all, if the temporary provisions in the TCJA expire, personal tax rates would revert higher, and it would result in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all U.S. households, as well as a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of earners.

总而言之，如果TCJA的临时规定到期，个人税率将恢复更高，这将导致所有美国家庭的税后收入减少1.8%，最富有的1%的人的税后收入减少3.1%的赚钱者。

Given this, JPMorgan anticipates an effort from both parties to push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, although the specifics will depend on the election’s outcome.

鉴于此，摩根大通预计两党都会努力推动至少部分延长 TCJA，但具体细节将取决于选举结果。

Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan anticipates an increase under either candidate’s proposals, with potential impacts on bond yields. The report describes: “If all of the policy proposals from the campaign trail become reality (unlikely), the deficit could increase by over $1 trillion over the next 10 years under Kamala Harris, and by nearly $4 trillion under Donald Trump. This is why it makes some sense that bond yields have increased along with the odds of a Republican sweep.”

关于国家赤字，摩根大通预计，两位候选人的提议都会增加国家赤字，并对债券收益率产生潜在影响。报告描述道：“如果竞选过程中的所有政策建议都成为现实（不太可能），那么在卡马拉·哈里斯的领导下，未来10年赤字可能会增加超过1万亿美元，而在唐纳德·特朗普的领导下，赤字可能会增加近4万亿美元。这就是为什么债券收益率随着共和党大获全胜的可能性而上升是有道理的。”

While debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan suggested that some fears may be overstated. The report explains:

尽管债务担忧显而易见，但摩根大通表示，一些担忧可能被夸大了。报告解释道：

While we view the debt and deficit trajectory as a risk, we think some of the fear is misplaced. In fact, current all-in yields give investors a second bite at the apple. For anyone who felt they missed the opportunity to add to core bonds, this may be your second chance.

虽然我们将债务和赤字轨迹视为一种风险，但我们认为有些担忧是多余的。事实上，当前的总收益率让投资者再次尝到了苹果的甜头。对于那些觉得自己错过了增加核心债券机会的人来说，这可能是你的第二次机会。

JPMorgan also addressed the possibility of an extended or contested election, noting: “It is difficult to say when we will know who won this election, and it’s possible that we may not have a clear answer for a week or two. In the event of a close election, we would expect to see court challenges and other legal action through the end of the year. It is important to also note that the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act is meant to strengthen the mechanisms that ensure a clear implementation of election results.”

摩根大通还谈到了延长选举或有争议的选举的可能性，并指出：“很难说我们什么时候会知道谁赢得了这次选举，而且我们可能一两周内都没有明确的答案。如果选举结果势均力敌，我们预计到年底都会面临法庭挑战和其他法律诉讼。还需要注意的是，2022 年选举计数改革法案旨在加强确保选举结果明确执行的机制。”

However, the analysts advised investors: “Equity market volatility tends to fall relatively quickly after the new composition of government is confirmed, and on average, equities are higher 12 months after the election. Said differently, don’t let an election derail your plans—election outcomes don’t drive market returns over the long run.”

不过，分析师建议投资者：“新政府组成确定后，股市波动往往会相对较快下降，平均而言，大选后 12 个月股市走高。换句话说，不要让选举破坏你的计划——从长远来看，选举结果不会推动市场回报。”

This week, JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, also predicted that a Trump victory could drive retail investors toward risk assets, potentially boosting prices for bitcoin and gold as part of a broader “debasement trade.”

本周，以董事总经理 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 为首的摩根大通分析师也预测，特朗普的胜利可能会推动散户投资者转向风险资产，作为更广泛的“贬值交易”的一部分，可能会推高比特币和黄金的价格。