JP Morgan分析師預計比特幣在2025年的其餘時間內將勝過黃金

該研究公司在越來越多的美國機構購買比特幣和黃金損失的零和貿易的背景下預測了這一表現。

JP Morgan analysts expect Bitcoin to outperform gold for the rest of the year.

JP Morgan分析師預計比特幣在今年餘下的時間內將勝過黃金。

The research firm predicts this performance on the back of more US institutions buying Bitcoin and a zero-sum trade where Gold is losing lately.

該研究公司在越來越多的美國機構購買比特幣和黃金損失的零和貿易的背景下預測了這一表現。

Gold’s blitz fading

黃金的閃電戰褪色

Gold had a strong start to 2025, racing to a 28% gain in its 52-week peak at $3,509.9 per ounce on April 22.

Gold在2025年的開局很強，在52週的高峰期，在4月22日的峰值上獲得了28％的漲幅。

At that time, Bitcoin was down 3% for the year till then.

當時，直到那一年，比特幣下跌了3％。

This rally was largely fueled by heightened geopolitical tensions, escalating US-China trade tensions, and persistent global recession fears fueled by tariffs, which drove significant safe-haven buying.

這次集會在很大程度上是由於地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，美國 - 中國貿易緊張局勢的加劇，以及持續的全球衰退擔憂，這引起了關稅的推動，這引起了大量的安全購買。

Central bank purchases also played a role in this upward trajectory.

中央銀行購買也在這一向上軌跡中發揮了作用。

A JP Morgan analyst in an earlier note said that momentum in gold’s price could push it to $6,000 over the next four to five years.

JP Morgan的一位分析師在較早的一份說明中說，黃金價格的勢頭可能會在未來四到五年內將其提高到6,000美元。

This surge would be fueled by a change in investors’ preference towards US investments.

投資者對美國投資的偏好變化將推動這一激增。

A debasement trade where investors buy gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against weakening international currencies has turned into a zero-sum game in 2025, JP Morgan analysts noted.

JP Morgan分析師指出，一項貶低的貿易是投資者購買黃金和比特幣作為對沖的對沖，在2025年變成了零和遊戲。

Gold was the asset that was gaining, and Bitcoin was losing in this arrangement until recently, they said.

他們說，黃金是收益的資產，直到最近，比特幣在這種安排中一直損失。

Since April’s peak, Gold prices have declined by 8% while Bitcoin has gained by 18%.

自4月的頂峰以來，黃金價格下跌了8％，而比特幣的增長率下降了18％。

The analysts noted that this performance has reflected in investor appetite as well.

分析師指出，這種表現也反映在投資者的胃口中。

Data indicating the flow of money showed that money was taken out of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and being poured into spot bitcoin and crypto funds since April, JP Morgan said.

摩根大通（JP Morgan）說，表明金錢流的數據表明，自4月以來，錢是從黃金交易所交易基金（ETF）中拿出的，並被倒入現貨比特幣和加密基金中。

Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in inflows since their approval in 2024.

自2024年批准以來，比特幣ETF吸引了超過400億美元的流入。

In futures data, the gold position has declined while bitcoin has been trending upwards.

在期貨數據中，黃金位置下降了，而比特幣一直在上升。

Catalyst for Bitcoin

比特幣的催化劑

The surge in Bitcoin price was also supported by companies and US institutions, either buying the crypto asset or encouraging the buying with supporting regulations.

比特幣價格上漲也得到了公司和美國機構的支持，即購買加密資產或通過支持法規鼓勵購買。

Strategy, a business intelligence company, has plans to buy $84 billion worth of bitcoin by 2027 in two separate $42 billion plans.

一家商業情報公司Strategy計劃在2027年之前在兩個單獨的420億美元計劃中購買價值840億美元的比特幣。

The company said it has already met 60% of the first $42 billion buying project.

該公司表示，它已經達到了第一個420億美元購買項目的60％。

Prominent hedge funds like Citadel, Millennium, and Susquehanna have also invested in the crypto asset.

諸如Citadel，Millennium和Susquehanna之類的著名對沖基金也投資了加密資產。

Major companies like Tesla, Coinbase, Block, and MetaPlanet have also add Bitcoin to their reserve.

特斯拉，Coinbase，Block和Metaplanet等主要公司也為其儲備金增加了比特幣。

US states are also buying bitcoin to pad their reserves. New Hampshire recently became the first US state to pass a crypto bill.

美國州也正在購買比特幣來加油。新罕布什爾州最近成為美國第一個通過加密賬單的州。

Under the new rule, the state can invest up to 10% of its public funds in Bitcoin and precious metals.

根據新規定，該州可以將多達10％的公共資金投資於比特幣和貴金屬。

Arizona also passed a Bitcoin reserve bill into law and promises no increased taxes.

亞利桑那州還將一項比特幣儲備法案通過了法律，並保證不會增加稅收。

Analysts said that as more US states make rules to invest in Bitcoin, it could act as a “sustained positive” catalyst for Bitcoin.

分析人士說，隨著美國越來越多的國家對比特幣進行投資的規定，它可以作為比特幣的“持續陽性”催化劑。