JP Morgan分析师预计比特币在2025年的其余时间内将胜过黄金

该研究公司在越来越多的美国机构购买比特币和黄金损失的零和贸易的背景下预测了这一表现。

JP Morgan analysts expect Bitcoin to outperform gold for the rest of the year.

JP Morgan分析师预计比特币在今年余下的时间内将胜过黄金。

The research firm predicts this performance on the back of more US institutions buying Bitcoin and a zero-sum trade where Gold is losing lately.

该研究公司在越来越多的美国机构购买比特币和黄金损失的零和贸易的背景下预测了这一表现。

Gold’s blitz fading

黄金的闪电战褪色

Gold had a strong start to 2025, racing to a 28% gain in its 52-week peak at $3,509.9 per ounce on April 22.

Gold在2025年的开局很强，在52周的高峰期，在4月22日的峰值上获得了28％的涨幅。

At that time, Bitcoin was down 3% for the year till then.

当时，直到那一年，比特币下跌了3％。

This rally was largely fueled by heightened geopolitical tensions, escalating US-China trade tensions, and persistent global recession fears fueled by tariffs, which drove significant safe-haven buying.

这次集会在很大程度上是由于地缘政治紧张局势加剧，美国 - 中国贸易紧张局势的加剧，以及持续的全球衰退担忧，这引起了关税的推动，这引起了大量的安全购买。

Central bank purchases also played a role in this upward trajectory.

中央银行购买也在这一向上轨迹中发挥了作用。

A JP Morgan analyst in an earlier note said that momentum in gold’s price could push it to $6,000 over the next four to five years.

JP Morgan的一位分析师在较早的一份说明中说，黄金价格的势头可能会在未来四到五年内将其提高到6,000美元。

This surge would be fueled by a change in investors’ preference towards US investments.

投资者对美国投资的偏好变化将推动这一激增。

A debasement trade where investors buy gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against weakening international currencies has turned into a zero-sum game in 2025, JP Morgan analysts noted.

JP Morgan分析师指出，一项贬低的贸易是投资者购买黄金和比特币作为对冲的对冲，在2025年变成了零和游戏。

Gold was the asset that was gaining, and Bitcoin was losing in this arrangement until recently, they said.

他们说，黄金是收益的资产，直到最近，比特币在这种安排中一直损失。

Since April’s peak, Gold prices have declined by 8% while Bitcoin has gained by 18%.

自4月的顶峰以来，黄金价格下跌了8％，而比特币的增长率下降了18％。

The analysts noted that this performance has reflected in investor appetite as well.

分析师指出，这种表现也反映在投资者的胃口中。

Data indicating the flow of money showed that money was taken out of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and being poured into spot bitcoin and crypto funds since April, JP Morgan said.

摩根大通（JP Morgan）说，表明金钱流的数据表明，自4月以来，钱是从黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）中拿出的，并被倒入现货比特币和加密基金中。

Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in inflows since their approval in 2024.

自2024年批准以来，比特币ETF吸引了超过400亿美元的流入。

In futures data, the gold position has declined while bitcoin has been trending upwards.

在期货数据中，黄金位置下降了，而比特币一直在上升。

Catalyst for Bitcoin

比特币的催化剂

The surge in Bitcoin price was also supported by companies and US institutions, either buying the crypto asset or encouraging the buying with supporting regulations.

比特币价格上涨也得到了公司和美国机构的支持，即购买加密资产或通过支持法规鼓励购买。

Strategy, a business intelligence company, has plans to buy $84 billion worth of bitcoin by 2027 in two separate $42 billion plans.

一家商业情报公司Strategy计划在2027年之前在两个单独的420亿美元计划中购买价值840亿美元的比特币。

The company said it has already met 60% of the first $42 billion buying project.

该公司表示，它已经达到了第一个420亿美元购买项目的60％。

Prominent hedge funds like Citadel, Millennium, and Susquehanna have also invested in the crypto asset.

诸如Citadel，Millennium和Susquehanna之类的著名对冲基金也投资了加密资产。

Major companies like Tesla, Coinbase, Block, and MetaPlanet have also add Bitcoin to their reserve.

特斯拉，Coinbase，Block和Metaplanet等主要公司也为其储备金增加了比特币。

US states are also buying bitcoin to pad their reserves. New Hampshire recently became the first US state to pass a crypto bill.

美国州也正在购买比特币来加油。新罕布什尔州最近成为美国第一个通过加密账单的州。

Under the new rule, the state can invest up to 10% of its public funds in Bitcoin and precious metals.

根据新规定，该州可以将多达10％的公共资金投资于比特币和贵金属。

Arizona also passed a Bitcoin reserve bill into law and promises no increased taxes.

亚利桑那州还将一项比特币储备法案通过了法律，并保证不会增加税收。

Analysts said that as more US states make rules to invest in Bitcoin, it could act as a “sustained positive” catalyst for Bitcoin.

分析人士说，随着美国越来越多的国家对比特币进行投资的规定，它可以作为比特币的“持续阳性”催化剂。