您現在應該在Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）上投資1,000美元嗎？

去年，加密貨幣領域中更有趣的案例研究之一是Dogecoin（加密：Doge）。

One of the more interesting case studies in the cryptocurrency realm over the last year is that of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). In 2024, the price of Dogecoin surged by 251% -- handily outperforming the likes of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and crypto's most popular name, Bitcoin.

去年，加密貨幣領域中更有趣的案例研究之一是Dogecoin（加密：Doge）。在2024年，Dogecoin的價格飆升了251％ - 易於超過標準普爾500指數，納斯達克復合材料和加密貨幣最受歡迎的名稱比特幣之類的價格。

Unfortunately, 2025 hasn't been as good for Dogecoin as last year.

不幸的是，2025年對Dogecoin並不像去年那樣好。

As of April 21, the price of Dogecoin has cratered by 50% so far this year. Per historical trends, Dogecoin's current price action suggests a big move could be coming soon.

截至4月21日，今年迄今為止，Dogecoin的價格已達到50％。根據歷史趨勢，Dogecoin目前的價格行動表明，很快可能會發生重大舉措。

Is now an opportunity to buy the dip in Dogecoin? Let's find out.

現在有機會在Dogecoin購買蘸醬嗎？讓我們找出答案。

Looking at Dogecoin's historical patterns

看Dogecoin的歷史模式

The chart below illustrates the price of Dogecoin over the last five years. Given the trends below, it becomes clear that Dogecoin is a volatile asset. While there have been quite a few spikes in its price, I also see another detail.

下圖說明了過去五年中Dogecoin的價格。鑑於以下趨勢，很明顯，多黴素是一種揮發性的資產。儘管價格上有很多峰值，但我也看到了另一個細節。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的Dogecoin價格數據

Namely, Dogecoin's price tends to bottom around $0.10. Generally, after that, it begins to rebound. But Dogecoin's rebounds are always fleeting.

也就是說，Dogecoin的價格傾向於最低售價0.10美元。通常，此後，它開始反彈。但是Dogecoin的籃板總是短暫的。

So history suggests a price increase could come soon with the current level of around $0.15. But I think it might not play out that way from here.

因此，歷史表明，當前水平約為0.15美元，價格可能很快就會增加。但是我認為從這裡可能不會那樣發揮作用。

Why I think this time could be different

為什麼我認為這次可能會有所不同

I've been closely covering Dogecoin over the last several months. The biggest takeaway I've gathered from the crypto's price volatility is that it became correlated to the outcome of the presidential election. Back in November, the price of Dogecoin went parabolic following Donald Trump's victory. But why?

在過去的幾個月中，我一直密切關注狗狗幣。我從加密貨幣的價格波動中收集的最大收穫是，它與總統選舉的結果相關。早在11月，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的勝利後，多黴素的價格就拋棄了。但為什麼？

Well, he created a program called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is meant to cut spending in the federal budget. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is leading this effort. For years, Musk has appeared to like to Dogecoin -- often posting memes about it on social media, which some novice investors likely viewed as an endorsement from the billionaire entrepreneur.

好吧，他制定了一個名為政府效率部（DOGE）的計劃，該計劃旨在削減聯邦預算中的支出。特斯拉（納斯達克：TSLA）首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）正在領導這項工作。多年來，馬斯克似乎一直喜歡Dogecoin-經常在社交媒體上發布有關它的模因，一些新手投資者可能被認為是億萬富翁企業家的認可。

Given the creation of DOGE and Musk's involvement with the program, some investors may have thought that Dogecoin would somehow be a beneficiary. While I personally think that idea was far-fetched to begin with, Musk himself has confirmed that the U.S. government has "no plans" to use Dogecoin in any capacity that he is aware of.

鑑於Doge和Musk參與該計劃的創建，一些投資者可能認為Dogecoin會以某種方式成為受益人。雖然我個人認為這個想法是從一開始就牽強的，但馬斯克本人已經確認，美國政府沒有計劃以他所知道的任何能力使用狗狗幣。

Dogecoin's price has been sliding for some time now. And given Musk's recent commentary, my thinking is that the sell-off will continue and that Dogecoin will continue to slide.

Dogecoin的價格已經下滑了一段時間。鑑於馬斯克最近的評論，我的想法是，拋售將繼續下去，而Dogecoin將繼續滑落。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Dogecoin is entertaining, but should be avoided as a serious investment

Dogecoin很有趣，但應避免作為一項嚴肅的投資

At the end of the day, Dogecoin is an entertaining asset, but it's a meme coin with no real utility, not something serious investors should be considering. In my own eyes, any money that has ever been made in Dogecoin comes down to two factors: timing and luck.

歸根結底，Dogecoin是一項有趣的資產，但這是一個沒有真正效用的模因硬幣，不應該考慮認真的投資者。在我看來，狗狗幣曾經賺到的任何錢都取決於兩個因素：時機和運氣。

Even if the price of Dogecoin does begin to bounce higher, the price rise itself will likely be fleeting. I don't think Dogecoin should earn a position in the portfolio of a long-term investor given its speculative nature and unpredictability.

即使Dogecoin的價格確實開始更高，價格上漲本身也可能會轉瞬即逝。我認為，鑑於其投機性質和不可預測性，Dogecoin不應在長期投資者的投資組合中獲得職位。