您现在应该在Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）上投资1,000美元吗？

去年，加密货币领域中更有趣的案例研究之一是Dogecoin（加密：Doge）。

One of the more interesting case studies in the cryptocurrency realm over the last year is that of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). In 2024, the price of Dogecoin surged by 251% -- handily outperforming the likes of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and crypto's most popular name, Bitcoin.

去年，加密货币领域中更有趣的案例研究之一是Dogecoin（加密：Doge）。在2024年，Dogecoin的价格飙升了251％ - 易于超过标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克复合材料和加密货币最受欢迎的名称比特币之类的价格。

Unfortunately, 2025 hasn't been as good for Dogecoin as last year.

不幸的是，2025年对Dogecoin并不像去年那样好。

As of April 21, the price of Dogecoin has cratered by 50% so far this year. Per historical trends, Dogecoin's current price action suggests a big move could be coming soon.

截至4月21日，今年迄今为止，Dogecoin的价格已达到50％。根据历史趋势，Dogecoin目前的价格行动表明，很快可能会发生重大举措。

Is now an opportunity to buy the dip in Dogecoin? Let's find out.

现在有机会在Dogecoin购买蘸酱吗？让我们找出答案。

Looking at Dogecoin's historical patterns

看Dogecoin的历史模式

The chart below illustrates the price of Dogecoin over the last five years. Given the trends below, it becomes clear that Dogecoin is a volatile asset. While there have been quite a few spikes in its price, I also see another detail.

下图说明了过去五年中Dogecoin的价格。鉴于以下趋势，很明显，多霉素是一种挥发性的资产。尽管价格上有很多峰值，但我也看到了另一个细节。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的Dogecoin价格数据

Namely, Dogecoin's price tends to bottom around $0.10. Generally, after that, it begins to rebound. But Dogecoin's rebounds are always fleeting.

也就是说，Dogecoin的价格倾向于最低售价0.10美元。通常，此后，它开始反弹。但是Dogecoin的篮板总是短暂的。

So history suggests a price increase could come soon with the current level of around $0.15. But I think it might not play out that way from here.

因此，历史表明，当前水平约为0.15美元，价格可能很快就会增加。但是我认为从这里可能不会那样发挥作用。

Why I think this time could be different

为什么我认为这次可能会有所不同

I've been closely covering Dogecoin over the last several months. The biggest takeaway I've gathered from the crypto's price volatility is that it became correlated to the outcome of the presidential election. Back in November, the price of Dogecoin went parabolic following Donald Trump's victory. But why?

在过去的几个月中，我一直密切关注狗狗币。我从加密货币的价格波动中收集的最大收获是，它与总统选举的结果相关。早在11月，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的胜利后，多霉素的价格就抛弃了。但为什么？

Well, he created a program called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is meant to cut spending in the federal budget. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is leading this effort. For years, Musk has appeared to like to Dogecoin -- often posting memes about it on social media, which some novice investors likely viewed as an endorsement from the billionaire entrepreneur.

好吧，他制定了一个名为政府效率部（DOGE）的计划，该计划旨在削减联邦预算中的支出。特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）正在领导这项工作。多年来，马斯克似乎一直喜欢Dogecoin-经常在社交媒体上发布有关它的模因，一些新手投资者可能被认为是亿万富翁企业家的认可。

Given the creation of DOGE and Musk's involvement with the program, some investors may have thought that Dogecoin would somehow be a beneficiary. While I personally think that idea was far-fetched to begin with, Musk himself has confirmed that the U.S. government has "no plans" to use Dogecoin in any capacity that he is aware of.

鉴于Doge和Musk参与该计划的创建，一些投资者可能认为Dogecoin会以某种方式成为受益人。虽然我个人认为这个想法是从一开始就牵强的，但马斯克本人已经确认，美国政府没有计划以他所知道的任何能力使用狗狗币。

Dogecoin's price has been sliding for some time now. And given Musk's recent commentary, my thinking is that the sell-off will continue and that Dogecoin will continue to slide.

Dogecoin的价格已经下滑了一段时间。鉴于马斯克最近的评论，我的想法是，抛售将继续下去，而Dogecoin将继续滑落。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Dogecoin is entertaining, but should be avoided as a serious investment

Dogecoin很有趣，但应避免作为一项严肃的投资

At the end of the day, Dogecoin is an entertaining asset, but it's a meme coin with no real utility, not something serious investors should be considering. In my own eyes, any money that has ever been made in Dogecoin comes down to two factors: timing and luck.

归根结底，Dogecoin是一项有趣的资产，但这是一个没有真正效用的模因硬币，不应该考虑认真的投资者。在我看来，狗狗币曾经赚到的任何钱都取决于两个因素：时机和运气。

Even if the price of Dogecoin does begin to bounce higher, the price rise itself will likely be fleeting. I don't think Dogecoin should earn a position in the portfolio of a long-term investor given its speculative nature and unpredictability.

即使Dogecoin的价格确实开始更高，价格上涨本身也可能会转瞬即逝。我认为，鉴于其投机性质和不可预测性，Dogecoin不应在长期投资者的投资组合中获得职位。