高盛（Goldman Sachs）在特朗普宣布關稅停頓後扭轉了經濟衰退的預測

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統宣布對政府的大部分新關稅宣布停頓90天，鎮定市場因貿易戰爭的恐懼而使市場平靜下來。

Goldman Sachs has reversed its recession forecast for the US economy, citing President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on most of the administration’s new tariffs.

高盛薩克斯（Goldman Sachs）扭轉了對美國經濟的經濟衰退預測，理由是唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣佈在政府的大多數新關稅上宣布停頓90天。

Earlier Wednesday, Goldman analysts shifted to a recession baseline following the unveiling of new country-specific tariffs, which sparked volatility in the markets.

週三早些時候，高盛分析師在揭幕新國家特定關稅後轉移到了經濟衰退的基準，這引起了市場的波動。

However, after Trump announced a pause on new tariffs and opened direct talks with several countries to resolve trade issues, Goldman updated its outlook to a “non-recession baseline.” This predicts modest GDP growth of 0.5% by Q4 2025 and three expected Fed rate cuts starting in June, according to CNBC reporting.

但是，在特朗普宣布對新的關稅停頓並與幾個國家進行直接談判以解決貿易問題之後，高盛將其前景更新為“非衰退基準”。根據CNBC的報告，這預測到第4季度2025年第4季度的GDP增長為0.5％，根據CNBC的報告，從6月開始進行三項預期的FED降低。

Markets responded quickly to Trump’s announcement. Bitcoin surged past $82,000, and the Nasdaq approached a 10% gain, recovering from its worst multi-day performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The 10-year Treasury yield also eased from 4.5% to 4.4%.

市場迅速回應了特朗普的宣布。比特幣飆升了82,000美元，納斯達克幣取得了10％的收益，這是自2008年金融危機以來最糟糕的多日表現。 10年的財政收益率也從4.5％降低到4.4％。

Goldman Sachs’ research department publishing these two headlines 73 minutes apart lmao pic.twitter.com/45TJplzU9I

高盛研究部出版這兩個頭條新聞73分鐘73分鐘lmao pic.twitter.com/45tjplzu9i

Trump, posting on Truth Social, said multiple countries had initiated talks over trade and currency, prompting the tariff pause and a temporary reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate to 10%. However, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 125%, effective immediately.

特朗普在《真相社會》上發表說，多個國家已經就貿易和貨幣發起了談判，促使關稅停頓，並暫時降低了相互關稅率至10％。但是，對中國進口的關稅提高到125％，立即生效。

Goldman now estimates a 45% chance of recession and expects core inflation to peak at 3.5%, according to its latest client note.

根據其最新的客戶票據，高盛估計衰退的機會有45％，並預計核心通貨膨脹率達到3.5％。

The surprise move came after four days of intense market volatility and mounting fears of a global recession. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will now lead upcoming trade negotiations, a shift Wall Street views positively due to his moderate stance.

令人驚訝的舉動發生在四天的激烈市場波動和對全球衰退的擔憂日益加劇之後。財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）現在將領導即將舉行的貿易談判，這是由於他的溫和立場，華爾街的轉變景色。