高盛（Goldman Sachs）在特朗普宣布关税停顿后扭转了经济衰退的预测

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统宣布对政府的大部分新关税宣布停顿90天，镇定市场因贸易战争的恐惧而使市场平静下来。

Goldman Sachs has reversed its recession forecast for the US economy, citing President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on most of the administration’s new tariffs.

高盛萨克斯（Goldman Sachs）扭转了对美国经济的经济衰退预测，理由是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布在政府的大多数新关税上宣布停顿90天。

Earlier Wednesday, Goldman analysts shifted to a recession baseline following the unveiling of new country-specific tariffs, which sparked volatility in the markets.

周三早些时候，高盛分析师在揭幕新国家特定关税后转移到了经济衰退的基准，这引起了市场的波动。

However, after Trump announced a pause on new tariffs and opened direct talks with several countries to resolve trade issues, Goldman updated its outlook to a “non-recession baseline.” This predicts modest GDP growth of 0.5% by Q4 2025 and three expected Fed rate cuts starting in June, according to CNBC reporting.

但是，在特朗普宣布对新的关税停顿并与几个国家进行直接谈判以解决贸易问题之后，高盛将其前景更新为“非衰退基准”。根据CNBC的报告，这预测到第4季度2025年第4季度的GDP增长为0.5％，根据CNBC的报告，从6月开始进行三项预期的FED降低。

Markets responded quickly to Trump’s announcement. Bitcoin surged past $82,000, and the Nasdaq approached a 10% gain, recovering from its worst multi-day performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The 10-year Treasury yield also eased from 4.5% to 4.4%.

市场迅速回应了特朗普的宣布。比特币飙升了82,000美元，纳斯达克币取得了10％的收益，这是自2008年金融危机以来最糟糕的多日表现。 10年的财政收益率也从4.5％降低到4.4％。

Goldman Sachs’ research department publishing these two headlines 73 minutes apart lmao pic.twitter.com/45TJplzU9I

高盛研究部出版这两个头条新闻73分钟73分钟lmao pic.twitter.com/45tjplzu9i

Trump, posting on Truth Social, said multiple countries had initiated talks over trade and currency, prompting the tariff pause and a temporary reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate to 10%. However, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 125%, effective immediately.

特朗普在《真相社会》上发表说，多个国家已经就贸易和货币发起了谈判，促使关税停顿，并暂时降低了相互关税率至10％。但是，对中国进口的关税提高到125％，立即生效。

Goldman now estimates a 45% chance of recession and expects core inflation to peak at 3.5%, according to its latest client note.

根据其最新的客户票据，高盛估计衰退的机会有45％，并预计核心通货膨胀率达到3.5％。

The surprise move came after four days of intense market volatility and mounting fears of a global recession. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will now lead upcoming trade negotiations, a shift Wall Street views positively due to his moderate stance.

令人惊讶的举动发生在四天的激烈市场波动和对全球衰退的担忧日益加剧之后。财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）现在将领导即将举行的贸易谈判，这是由于他的温和立场，华尔街的转变景色。