黃金超過標準普爾500，因為不確定性為安全飛往安全

根據分析，隨著投資者在經濟和地緣政治不確定性越來越多的情況下，黃金在2024年的股票上表現出色。

Gold has sharply outperformed equities in 2024 as investors continue to seek safety amid mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainty, according to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, a prominent capital markets newsletter.

根據著名的資本市場新聞通訊Kobeissi Letter的分析，由於投資者在越來越多的經濟和地緣政治不確定性中繼續尋求安全性，黃金在2024年的股票上表現明顯優於股票。

While gold had lagged the S&P 500 by nearly 10% since 2020, the tide has now turned. The newsletter notes that GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, is up 109% over the same period, compared to 74% for the S&P 500.

自2020年以來，黃金已經將標準普爾500指數落後了近10％，但現在的潮流已經轉變。新聞通訊指出，SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD在同一時期增長了109％，而標準普爾500指數為74％。

Analysts attribute the shift not to weakness in equities, but to an overarching driver: uncertainty.

分析師將這種轉變歸因於股票的弱點，而是歸因於總體驅動程序：不確定性。

"Why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers? Uncertainty remains the answer," the Kobeissi Letter wrote on X.

Kobeissi信中寫道：“即使市場恢復恢復，為什麼黃金價格也會上漲？不確定性仍然是答案。”

Why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers? Uncertainty remains the answer. ведет в настоящее время: The Kobeissi Letter

即使市場恢復，黃金價格也會上漲？不確定性仍然是答案。目前的主角：Kobeissi信

The recent surge in gold prices coincides with record-setting capital flows into gold funds. Three weeks ago, gold ETFs saw net inflows of $8 billion, the largest ever recorded, according to the Kobeissi Letter. The four-week moving average has now climbed to roughly $4 billion, another all-time high.

最近的黃金價格上漲與創紀錄的資本流入黃金基金相吻合。根據Kobeissi的信件，三週前，Gold ETF的淨流入為80億美元，是有史以來最大的淨流入。現在的四周移動平均線已經攀升至大約40億美元，這是一個歷史最高的。

Analysts described the current cycle as "likely the strongest gold market of all time," citing both investor sentiment and institutional demand.

分析師將當前週期描述為“有史以來最強大的黃金市場”，理由是投資者的情緒和機構需求。

The Kobeissi Letter also highlights aggressive central bank buying, which continues at historically elevated levels. Citing macro strategist Otavio Costa, the report says gold now makes up approximately 18% of global foreign exchange reserves, the highest proportion in 26 years.

Kobeissi的信還凸顯了積極的中央銀行購買，這在歷史上仍在較高的水平上。報告稱，該報告稱黃金現在約佔全球外匯儲備的18％，這是26年來最高的比例。

At the same time, foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries has dropped to just 23% of total U.S. government debt, marking the lowest share in over two decades. This shift points to waning confidence in traditional dollar-denominated assets.

同時，美國國債的外國所有權已下降到美國政府總債務總額的23％，標誌著二十年來最低的份額。這種轉變表明，對傳統美元計價資產的信心減少了。

Further boosting gold's appeal is the weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which recently touched a 52-week low. The index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, has declined nearly 10% since the start of the trade war cycle.

進一步提高了黃金的吸引力是削弱了美元指數（DXY），該指數最近觸及了52週的低點。該指數追踪了一籃子外幣，自貿易戰週期開始以來，該指數已下降了近10％。

A weaker dollar typically makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, further enhancing demand. Kobeissi analysts even suggest that gold is now acting as a "leading indicator for tariffs", reflecting broader investor sentiment about macroeconomic risks.

較弱的美元通常使外國投資者更便宜，從而進一步提高了需求。 Kobeissi分析師甚至建議黃金現在充當“關稅的領先指標”，反映出對宏觀經濟風險的更廣泛的投資者情緒。