黄金超过标准普尔500，因为不确定性为安全飞往安全

根据分析，随着投资者在经济和地缘政治不确定性越来越多的情况下，黄金在2024年的股票上表现出色。

Gold has sharply outperformed equities in 2024 as investors continue to seek safety amid mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainty, according to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, a prominent capital markets newsletter.

根据著名的资本市场新闻通讯Kobeissi Letter的分析，由于投资者在越来越多的经济和地缘政治不确定性中继续寻求安全性，黄金在2024年的股票上表现明显优于股票。

While gold had lagged the S&P 500 by nearly 10% since 2020, the tide has now turned. The newsletter notes that GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, is up 109% over the same period, compared to 74% for the S&P 500.

自2020年以来，黄金已经将标准普尔500指数落后了近10％，但现在的潮流已经转变。新闻通讯指出，SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD在同一时期增长了109％，而标准普尔500指数为74％。

Analysts attribute the shift not to weakness in equities, but to an overarching driver: uncertainty.

分析师将这种转变归因于股票的弱点，而是归因于总体驱动程序：不确定性。

"Why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers? Uncertainty remains the answer," the Kobeissi Letter wrote on X.

Kobeissi信中写道：“即使市场恢复恢复，为什么黄金价格也会上涨？不确定性仍然是答案。”

Why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers? Uncertainty remains the answer. ведет в настоящее время: The Kobeissi Letter

即使市场恢复，黄金价格也会上涨？不确定性仍然是答案。目前的主角：Kobeissi信

The recent surge in gold prices coincides with record-setting capital flows into gold funds. Three weeks ago, gold ETFs saw net inflows of $8 billion, the largest ever recorded, according to the Kobeissi Letter. The four-week moving average has now climbed to roughly $4 billion, another all-time high.

最近的黄金价格上涨与创纪录的资本流入黄金基金相吻合。根据Kobeissi的信件，三周前，Gold ETF的净流入为80亿美元，是有史以来最大的净流入。现在的四周移动平均线已经攀升至大约40亿美元，这是一个历史最高的。

Analysts described the current cycle as "likely the strongest gold market of all time," citing both investor sentiment and institutional demand.

分析师将当前周期描述为“有史以来最强大的黄金市场”，理由是投资者的情绪和机构需求。

The Kobeissi Letter also highlights aggressive central bank buying, which continues at historically elevated levels. Citing macro strategist Otavio Costa, the report says gold now makes up approximately 18% of global foreign exchange reserves, the highest proportion in 26 years.

Kobeissi的信还凸显了积极的中央银行购买，这在历史上仍在较高的水平上。报告称，该报告称黄金现在约占全球外汇储备的18％，这是26年来最高的比例。

At the same time, foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries has dropped to just 23% of total U.S. government debt, marking the lowest share in over two decades. This shift points to waning confidence in traditional dollar-denominated assets.

同时，美国国债的外国所有权已下降到美国政府总债务总额的23％，标志着二十年来最低的份额。这种转变表明，对传统美元计价资产的信心减少了。

Further boosting gold's appeal is the weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which recently touched a 52-week low. The index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, has declined nearly 10% since the start of the trade war cycle.

进一步提高了黄金的吸引力是削弱了美元指数（DXY），该指数最近触及了52周的低点。该指数追踪了一篮子外币，自贸易战周期开始以来，该指数已下降了近10％。

A weaker dollar typically makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, further enhancing demand. Kobeissi analysts even suggest that gold is now acting as a "leading indicator for tariffs", reflecting broader investor sentiment about macroeconomic risks.

较弱的美元通常使外国投资者更便宜，从而进一步提高了需求。 Kobeissi分析师甚至建议黄金现在充当“关税的领先指标”，反映出对宏观经济风险的更广泛的投资者情绪。