黃金成為2024年的黑馬，但它會持續下去嗎？

雖然交易員一直在關注標準普爾 500 指數等股票市場和貝萊德 IBIT 等現貨比特幣交易所交易基金，但黃金的回報率剛剛超過了這兩者。

Gold outperformed both the S&P 500 and BlackRock’s IBIT exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2024, recording a 29% gain.

2024 年，黃金表現優於標準普爾 500 指數和貝萊德 IBIT 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，漲幅達 29%。

At $2,660 per ounce, gold's returns surpassed IBIT's 24% gain since its January 11th inception and outperformed the S&P 500's gains of around 20%.

黃金回報率達到每盎司 2,660 美元，超過了 IBIT 自 1 月 11 日推出以來 24% 的漲幅，也超過了標準普爾 500 指數約 20% 的漲幅。

“Gold has been climbing higher tortoise style,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.

彭博資訊分析師 Eric Balchunas表示，「金價一直以烏龜風格攀升」。

The precious metal's performance was fueled by rising tensions between Iran and Israel, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

伊朗和以色列之間緊張局勢加劇推動了貴金屬的表現，這提振了對避險資產的需求。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped this week, with Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, noting that gold is better suited for hedging against geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin protects against traditional finance issues.

同時，比特幣本週下跌，渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 指出，黃金更適合對沖地緣政治風險，而比特幣則可以防範傳統金融議題。

However, while gold surged initially amid geopolitical tensions, historical data suggests its outperformance may not be sustained.

然而，儘管金價最初因地緣政治緊張局勢而飆升，但歷史數據表明其優異表現可能不會持續。

During the US-Iran escalation in 2020, gold initially outpaced other assets, but Bitcoin rebounded more strongly in the following months.

2020年美伊衝突升級期間，黃金最初跑贏其他資產，但比特幣在接下來的幾個月反彈更為強勁。

This pattern has been consistent in recent years, according to JAN3, the developer behind the Aquabitcoin digital wallet.

Aquabitcoin 數位錢包的開發商 JAN3 表示，這種模式近年來一直存在。

Bitcoin's ability to bounce back more sharply than gold was observed during major events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 US election, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

在 COVID-19 大流行、2020 年美國大選和俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭等重大事件期間，我們觀察到比特幣的反彈能力比黃金更強勁。

Usually, it takes about 60 days for Bitcoin to recover after massive geopolitical events, according to a recent report by BlackRock.

根據貝萊德最近的一份報告，通常情況下，在大規模地緣政治事件之後，比特幣需要大約 60 天的時間才能恢復。

So, should investors choose gold or Bitcoin? Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, addressed this question in a recent blog.

那麼，投資人該選擇黃金還是比特幣呢？ Bitwise 資訊長 Matt Hougan 在最近的部落格中解決了這個問題。

He argues that it boils down to whether investors prioritize higher returns or lower risk.

他認為，這歸結為投資者是否優先考慮更高的回報或更低的風險。

Using Bitwise's estimates and comparing traditional stock and bonds portfolios with up to 5% allocation to either Bitcoin or gold, Hougan analyzed their performance.

Hougan 使用 Bitwise 的估計並比較了傳統股票和債券投資組合（比特幣或黃金的分配比例高達 5%），分析了它們的表現。

The simulation was based on data from January 2014 to September 26, 2024.

模擬基於2014年1月至2024年9月26日的數據。

Portfolios with 5% Bitcoin showed a yield of over 208% on the investment, while a similar gold allocation yielded just over 100%.

包含 5% 比特幣的投資組合的投資收益率超過 208%，而類似的黃金配置收益率略高於 100%。

For Hougan, the answer to which asset to choose is clear: “Bitcoin.”

對於 Hougan 來說，選擇哪種資產的答案很明確：「比特幣」。