黄金成为2024年的黑马，但它会持续下去吗？

虽然交易员一直关注标准普尔 500 指数等股票市场和贝莱德 IBIT 等现货比特币交易所交易基金，但黄金的回报率刚刚超过了这两者。

Gold outperformed both the S&P 500 and BlackRock’s IBIT exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2024, recording a 29% gain.

2024 年，黄金表现优于标准普尔 500 指数和贝莱德 IBIT 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，涨幅达 29%。

At $2,660 per ounce, gold's returns surpassed IBIT's 24% gain since its January 11th inception and outperformed the S&P 500's gains of around 20%.

黄金回报率达到每盎司 2,660 美元，超过了 IBIT 自 1 月 11 日推出以来 24% 的涨幅，也超过了标准普尔 500 指数约 20% 的涨幅。

“Gold has been climbing higher tortoise style,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.

彭博资讯分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯(Eric Balchunas)表示，“金价一直在以乌龟风格攀升”。

The precious metal's performance was fueled by rising tensions between Iran and Israel, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

伊朗和以色列之间紧张局势加剧推动了贵金属的表现，这提振了对避险资产的需求。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped this week, with Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, noting that gold is better suited for hedging against geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin protects against traditional finance issues.

与此同时，比特币本周下跌，渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 指出，黄金更适合对冲地缘政治风险，而比特币则可以防范传统金融问题。

However, while gold surged initially amid geopolitical tensions, historical data suggests its outperformance may not be sustained.

然而，尽管金价最初因地缘政治紧张局势而飙升，但历史数据表明其优异表现可能不会持续。

During the US-Iran escalation in 2020, gold initially outpaced other assets, but Bitcoin rebounded more strongly in the following months.

2020年美伊冲突升级期间，黄金最初跑赢其他资产，但比特币在接下来的几个月里反弹更为强劲。

This pattern has been consistent in recent years, according to JAN3, the developer behind the Aquabitcoin digital wallet.

Aquabitcoin 数字钱包的开发商 JAN3 表示，这种模式近年来一直存在。

Bitcoin's ability to bounce back more sharply than gold was observed during major events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 US election, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

在 COVID-19 大流行、2020 年美国大选和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰等重大事件期间，我们观察到比特币的反弹能力比黄金更强劲。

Usually, it takes about 60 days for Bitcoin to recover after massive geopolitical events, according to a recent report by BlackRock.

根据贝莱德最近的一份报告，通常情况下，在大规模地缘政治事件之后，比特币需要大约 60 天的时间才能恢复。

So, should investors choose gold or Bitcoin? Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, addressed this question in a recent blog.

那么，投资者应该选择黄金还是比特币呢？ Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 在最近的博客中解决了这个问题。

He argues that it boils down to whether investors prioritize higher returns or lower risk.

他认为，这归结为投资者是否优先考虑更高的回报或更低的风险。

Using Bitwise's estimates and comparing traditional stock and bonds portfolios with up to 5% allocation to either Bitcoin or gold, Hougan analyzed their performance.

Hougan 使用 Bitwise 的估计并比较了传统股票和债券投资组合（比特币或黄金的分配比例高达 5%），分析了它们的表现。

The simulation was based on data from January 2014 to September 26, 2024.

模拟基于2014年1月至2024年9月26日的数据。

Portfolios with 5% Bitcoin showed a yield of over 208% on the investment, while a similar gold allocation yielded just over 100%.

包含 5% 比特币的投资组合的投资收益率超过 208%，而类似的黄金配置收益率略高于 100%。

For Hougan, the answer to which asset to choose is clear: “Bitcoin.”

对于 Hougan 来说，选择哪种资产的答案很明确：“比特币”。