福布斯「殭屍區塊鏈」：炒作還是現實？

《富比士》列出了 20 個儘管實用性極低但估值仍達數十億美元的“殭屍區塊鏈”，其中包括 ADA、XRP 和 LTC 等知名品牌。這些區塊鏈的開發者活動和收費較低，顯示它們的估值與實際網路使用情況之間存在脫節。然而，對網路交易價值（NVT）等關鍵指標的分析表明，一些殭屍區塊鏈可能不像看起來那樣處於休眠狀態，這可能表明其估值被低估或未來成長的潛力。

Forbes' "Zombie Blockchains": Misnomer or Accurate Assessment?

福布斯「殭屍區塊鏈」：用詞不當還是準確評估？

In a recent report, Forbes has classified 20 blockchain networks as "zombies," citing their billions of dollars in valuations despite their perceived low utility. While the term "zombie blockchain" is intriguing, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture, challenging the validity of Forbes' categorization.

在最近的一份報告中，《富比士》將 20 個區塊鏈網路列為“殭屍”，理由是儘管它們被認為效用較低，但估值卻高達數十億美元。雖然「殭屍區塊鏈」這個術語很有趣，但仔細研究會發現更微妙的情況，挑戰了福布斯分類的有效性。

Defining Zombie Blockchains

定義殭屍區塊鏈

Forbes describes zombie blockchains as those characterized by "low utility, high trading." Essentially, these networks have valuations in the billions of dollars but limited real-world applications or usage. According to Forbes, the following blockchains fall under this category:

福布斯將殭屍區塊鏈描述為「低效用、高交易」的區塊鏈。從本質上講，這些網路的估值高達數十億美元，但實際應用或使用有限。根據《富比士》報道，以下區塊鏈屬於此類：

• XRP (XRP)
• Cardano (ADA)
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Litecoin (LTC)
• Internet Computer (ICP)
• Ethereum Classic (ETC)
• Stellar (XLM)
• Stacks (STX)
• Kaspa (KAS)
• Fantom (FTM)
• Monero (XMR)
• Arweave (AR)
• Algorand (ALGO)
• Flow (FLOW)
• MultiversX (EGLD)
• Bitcoin SV (BSV)
• Mina (MINA)
• Tezos (XTZ)
• Theta (THETA)
• EOS (EOS)

Metrics in Question

XRP (XRP)卡爾達諾(ADA)比特幣現金(BCH)萊特幣(LTC)互聯網計算機(ICP)以太坊經典(ETC)Stellar (XLM)Stacks (STX)Kaspa (KAS)Fantom (FTM)Monero ( XMR)Arweave (AR )Algorand (ALGO)Flow (FLOW)MultiversX (EGLD)Bitcoin SV (BSV)Mina (MINA)Tezos (XTZ)Theta (THETA)EOS (EOS)有問題的指標

Forbes primarily relies on metrics such as the number of developers, fee collection, and active addresses to determine the "low utility" of these networks. However, a deeper analysis reveals a more complex story.

福布斯主要依靠開發者數量、費用收取和活躍地址等指標來確定這些網路的「低效用」。然而，更深入的分析揭示了一個更複雜的故事。

Cardano: A Case in Point

卡爾達諾：一個典型的例子

Cardano, one of the blockchains labeled as a zombie, has been criticized for its declining active addresses and low fee collection. However, a closer examination reveals that Cardano has a robust community of developers, with over 150 weekly active core developers, which is higher than many other Layer 1 blockchains.

卡爾達諾是被貼上殭屍標籤的區塊鏈之一，因其活躍地址下降和收費低而受到批評。然而，仔細檢查後發現，卡爾達諾擁有強大的開發者社區，每週活躍的核心開發者超過 150 名，這一數字高於許多其他第 1 層區塊鏈。

Furthermore, Cardano's Adjusted Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, a measure of network value relative to transaction volume, is significantly lower than that of Ethereum Classic (ETC), another blockchain on the zombie list. This suggests that Cardano's valuation is relatively undervalued compared to its transaction activity.

此外，卡爾達諾的調整後網路價值與交易量（NVT）比率（衡量網路價值相對於交易量的指標）明顯低於殭屍名單上的另一個區塊鏈以太坊經典（ETC）。這表明卡爾達諾的估值與其交易活動相比相對被低估。

Pump and Dump Allegations

拉高和拋售指控

Forbes also points to the presence of large holders and pump-and-dump schemes as contributing factors to the "zombie" status of these cryptocurrencies. While it is true that some large holders may engage in such activities, it is important to note that these allegations have not been substantiated with concrete evidence.

福布斯也指出，大量持有者和拉高拋售計畫的存在是導致這些加密貨幣「殭屍」狀態的因素。雖然一些大股東確實可能參與此類活動，但值得注意的是，這些指控尚未得到具體證據證實。

Assessing the Zombie List

評估殭屍名單

A critical examination of the Forbes list reveals that several of the included blockchains have been operating for extended periods, with established communities and significant usage. For instance, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash have been around for years and continue to have active user bases. XRP, despite regulatory challenges, remains a widely used asset for cross-border payments and remittances.

對福布斯榜單的嚴格審查顯示，其中的幾個區塊鏈已經運行了很長時間，擁有成熟的社區和大量使用。例如，萊特幣和比特幣現金已經存在多年，並且仍然擁有活躍的用戶群。儘管面臨監管挑戰，XRP 仍然是跨境支付和匯款廣泛使用的資產。

Moreover, the NVT ratio, which Forbes does not consider, provides a more balanced view of network valuations. By comparing the network value to transaction volume, the NVT ratio helps identify potential overvaluations. According to Messari data, the Adjusted NVTs of several blockchains on the zombie list, including ADA, KASPA, and ICP, are relatively low, suggesting that they are not significantly overvalued.

此外，《富比士》不考慮的 NVT 比率提供了對網路估值更加平衡的看法。透過將網路價值與交易量進行比較，NVT 比率有助於識別潛在的高估。根據 Messari 數據，殭屍名單上的幾個區塊鏈（包括 ADA、KASPA、ICP）調整後的 NVT 都相對較低，顯示它們並未被嚴重高估。

Conclusion

結論

While the concept of "zombie blockchains" may be attention-grabbing, a thorough analysis of the Forbes list and the underlying metrics reveals a more nuanced picture. Several of the included networks have demonstrated notable development activity, established communities, and growing transaction volumes.

雖然「殭屍區塊鏈」的概念可能很引人注目，但對福布斯排行榜和基本指標的徹底分析揭示了更微妙的情況。其中幾個網絡已展現出顯著的開發活動、已建立的社區以及不斷增長的交易量。

The NVT ratio, which Forbes overlooks, provides a more comprehensive assessment of network valuations, suggesting that some of the so-called "zombies" may be undervalued rather than overvalued.

福布斯忽視的NVT比率提供了對網路估值更全面的評估，表明一些所謂的「殭屍」可能被低估而不是被高估。

It is crucial to approach such classifications with a critical eye and consider a broader range of factors beyond the limited metrics used by Forbes. The blockchain industry is constantly evolving, and dismissing networks as "zombies" based on a snapshot in time may hinder our understanding of their potential and long-term value.

至關重要的是，要以批判的眼光對待此類分類，並考慮福布斯使用的有限指標之外的更廣泛的因素。區塊鏈產業不斷發展，基於時間快照將網路視為「殭屍」可能會阻礙我們對其潛力和長期價值的理解。