聯準會降息：對比特幣意味著什麼

大多數分析師認為，聯準會的政策逆轉可能對比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場來說是個好兆頭。

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above the $61,000 price point on Wednesday following the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points.

在聯準會決定將基準利率降低 50 個基點後，比特幣 (BTC) 的價格週三上漲至 61,000 美元以上。

This marks the first rate cut by the world’s most important central bank after its most aggressive hiking cycle in four years. Most analysts believe the Fed’s policy reversal could bode well for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

這標誌著全球最重要的央行在經歷四年來最激進的升息週期後首次降息。大多數分析師認為，聯準會的政策逆轉可能對比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場來說是個好兆頭。

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did what many economists forecasted: It opted for a massive rate cut. The FOMC slashed its federal funds rate to a target range of 4.75% to 5.00%, marking its very first rate cut in four years.

聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）做了許多經濟學家的預測：選擇大幅降息。 FOMC 將聯邦基金利率下調至 4.75% 至 5.00% 的目標區間，這是四年來的首次降息。

“The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” a press release stated. “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

一份新聞稿稱：“委員會對通膨持續向 2% 邁進的信心增強，並判斷實現就業和通膨目標的風險大致平衡。” “經濟前景不確定，委員會正在關注其雙重使命雙方面臨的風險。”

The move comes as recent economic indicators have suggested that the economy continues to expand, but the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference.

聯準會主席鮑威爾在記者會上表示，近期經濟指標顯示經濟持續擴張，但通膨上行風險已減弱，就業下行風險增加。

“This is a recalibration. We're not pivoting,” Powell said, regarding today's rate cut.

“這是一次重新校準。我們不會轉向，」鮑威爾在談到今天的降息時說道。

Market participants highly anticipated a rate cut following Powell’s proclamation at last month’s Jackson Hole symposium that “the time has come for policy to adjust” with easing inflation and soaring unemployment numbers. However, traders were split on whether the Fed would slash borrowing costs by 25 bps or opt for a jumbo-sized, 50 bps cut.

鮑威爾在上個月的傑克遜霍爾研討會上宣布，隨著通膨緩解和失業率飆升，“政策調整的時機已經到來”，市場參與者高度期待降息。然而，對於聯準會是否將借貸成本削減 25 個基點，還是選擇大幅降息 50 個基點，交易員存在分歧。

Historically, rate cuts have been considered bullish for Bitcoin, as monetary easing typically weakens the U.S. dollar and boosts demand for risk-on assets like BTC. In other words, the more investors that are willing to take risks, the more money they’ll want to put into the sector — which could catalyze the price of Bitcoin.

從歷史上看，降息被認為對比特幣有利，因為貨幣寬鬆通常會削弱美元並提振對比特幣等風險資產的需求。換句話說，願意承擔風險的投資者越多，他們願意投入該行業的資金就越多，這可能會刺激比特幣的價格。

The price of the maiden crypto popped above the $61,000 mark immediately after the Fed announcement but has pulled back to about $59,616 as of this writing, down 0.9% on the day.

在聯準會宣布這項消息後，首次加密貨幣的價格立即突破 61,000 美元大關，但截至撰寫本文時已回落至約 59,616 美元，當天下跌 0.9%。

Analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital believe that the Fed's decision on Wednesday will have a significant impact on the financial markets. They predict that there will be increased short-term volatility following the massive rate cut.

總部位於新加坡的QCP Capital分析師認為，聯準會週三的決定將對金融市場產生重大影響。他們預測，大規模降息後短期波動將會加劇。

“We are confident that volatility will be high in the days following the meeting, as traders readjust their positions over the next few weeks and the regime change could also signal the start of strong macro trends,” QCP noted.

QCP 指出：“我們相信，會議後幾天的波動性將會很高，因為交易員將在未來幾週內重新調整頭寸，而政權更迭也可能預示著強勁宏觀趨勢的開始。”

While the strategists expect possible BTC price weakness in the short term, they urge investors to focus on the long term.

雖然策略師預計比特幣價格短期內可能會走軟，但他們敦促投資者關注長期。

“While drawdowns and high volatility are expected, don’t let it detract from the path to higher Bitcoin prices, and we favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in Bitcoin prices,” the QCP analysts added.

QCP 分析師補充說：「雖然預計會出現回撤和高波動性，但不要讓它阻礙比特幣價格上漲的道路，我們傾向於具有無限上漲空間的長期結構，以利用比特幣價格潛在的拋物線上漲。