美联储降息：对比特币意味着什么

大多数分析师认为，美联储的政策逆转可能对比特币和更广泛的加密市场来说是个好兆头。

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above the $61,000 price point on Wednesday following the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points.

在美联储决定将基准利率降低 50 个基点后，比特币 (BTC) 的价格周三上涨至 61,000 美元以上。

This marks the first rate cut by the world’s most important central bank after its most aggressive hiking cycle in four years. Most analysts believe the Fed’s policy reversal could bode well for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

这标志着全球最重要的央行在经历四年来最激进的加息周期后首次降息。大多数分析师认为，美联储的政策逆转可能对比特币和更广泛的加密市场来说是个好兆头。

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did what many economists forecasted: It opted for a massive rate cut. The FOMC slashed its federal funds rate to a target range of 4.75% to 5.00%, marking its very first rate cut in four years.

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）做了许多经济学家的预测：选择大幅降息。 FOMC 将联邦基金利率下调至 4.75% 至 5.00% 的目标区间，这是四年来的首次降息。

“The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” a press release stated. “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

一份新闻稿称：“委员会对通胀持续向 2% 迈进的信心增强，并判断实现就业和通胀目标的风险大致平衡。” “经济前景不确定，委员会正在关注其双重使命双方面临的风险。”

The move comes as recent economic indicators have suggested that the economy continues to expand, but the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference.

美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，近期经济指标表明经济继续扩张，但通胀上行风险已经减弱，就业下行风险有所增加。

“This is a recalibration. We're not pivoting,” Powell said, regarding today's rate cut.

“这是一次重新校准。我们不会转向，”鲍威尔在谈到今天的降息时说道。

Market participants highly anticipated a rate cut following Powell’s proclamation at last month’s Jackson Hole symposium that “the time has come for policy to adjust” with easing inflation and soaring unemployment numbers. However, traders were split on whether the Fed would slash borrowing costs by 25 bps or opt for a jumbo-sized, 50 bps cut.

鲍威尔在上个月的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上宣布，随着通胀缓解和失业率飙升，“政策调整的时机已经到来”，市场参与者高度期待降息。然而，对于美联储是否将借贷成本削减 25 个基点，还是选择大幅降息 50 个基点，交易员存在分歧。

Historically, rate cuts have been considered bullish for Bitcoin, as monetary easing typically weakens the U.S. dollar and boosts demand for risk-on assets like BTC. In other words, the more investors that are willing to take risks, the more money they’ll want to put into the sector — which could catalyze the price of Bitcoin.

从历史上看，降息被认为对比特币有利，因为货币宽松通常会削弱美元并提振对比特币等风险资产的需求。换句话说，愿意承担风险的投资者越多，他们愿意投入该行业的资金就越多，这可能会刺激比特币的价格。

The price of the maiden crypto popped above the $61,000 mark immediately after the Fed announcement but has pulled back to about $59,616 as of this writing, down 0.9% on the day.

在美联储宣布这一消息后，首次加密货币的价格立即突破 61,000 美元大关，但截至撰写本文时已回落至约 59,616 美元，当天下跌 0.9%。

Analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital believe that the Fed's decision on Wednesday will have a significant impact on the financial markets. They predict that there will be increased short-term volatility following the massive rate cut.

总部位于新加坡的QCP Capital分析师认为，美联储周三的决定将对金融市场产生重大影响。他们预测，大规模降息后短期波动将会加剧。

“We are confident that volatility will be high in the days following the meeting, as traders readjust their positions over the next few weeks and the regime change could also signal the start of strong macro trends,” QCP noted.

QCP 指出：“我们相信，会议后几天的波动性将会很高，因为交易员将在未来几周内重新调整头寸，而政权更迭也可能预示着强劲宏观趋势的开始。”

While the strategists expect possible BTC price weakness in the short term, they urge investors to focus on the long term.

虽然策略师预计比特币价格短期内可能走软，但他们敦促投资者关注长期。

“While drawdowns and high volatility are expected, don’t let it detract from the path to higher Bitcoin prices, and we favor long-dated structures with unlimited upside to capitalize on potential parabolic advances in Bitcoin prices,” the QCP analysts added.

QCP 分析师补充道：“虽然预计会出现回撤和高波动性，但不要让它阻碍比特币价格上涨的道路，我们倾向于具有无限上涨空间的长期结构，以利用比特币价格潜在的抛物线上涨。”