擔心由於唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）不斷變化的關稅政策而導致急劇經濟衰退的恐懼正在遍布華爾街

聯合國國際貨幣基金組織董事總經理克里斯塔利娜·格魯吉瓦（Kristalina Georgieva）週四表示，由於貿易中斷，該基金對其全球經濟增長的預測“顯著降低”

Fears of a sharp economic downturn due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are pervading Wall Street, as some of the most trusted observers of the economy say the U.S. is far from out of the woods on a tariff-driven recession, though the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday the border-spanning organization does not project such a downturn this year.

由於總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅政策而導致的急劇經濟衰退的擔憂遍布華爾街，因為經濟的一些最值得信賴的觀察者表示，美國在關稅驅動的經濟衰退中遠非遠離森林，儘管國際貨幣基金會周四表示，邊境跨國公司在本週四並未投射出如此低迷的年度下降。

Since President Donald Trump took office in January, economic forecasts have been a rollercoaster.

自從唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統在一月份上任以來，經濟預測一直是過山車。

Key Facts

關鍵事實

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the U.N. agency IMF, said Thursday the fund made “notable markdowns” to its global economic growth forecasts due to trade disruptions, though it still does not predict a recession, while warning the “high uncertainty raises the risk of financial market stress.”

聯合國國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）董事總經理克里斯塔利娜·喬治達（Kristalina Georgieva）週四表示，由於貿易破壞，該基金對其全球經濟增長預測的“明顯降低”，儘管它仍然沒有預測經濟衰退，同時警告“高不確定性會增加金融市場壓力的風險”。

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Tuesday his bank’s baseline economic forecast does not call for a recession this year, but other big banks’ economic models still indicate the chance of a recession this year remains a tossup: Morgan Stanley forecasts 40% odds, Goldman Sachs places 45% likelihood of a recession over the next year and JPMorgan Chase projects a 60% chance.

美國銀行首席執行官布萊恩·莫伊尼漢（Brian Moynihan）週二表示，他的銀行的基準經濟預測並不要求今年的經濟衰退，但是其他大型銀行的經濟模式仍然表明，今年衰退的機會仍然是一次折磨：摩根史丹利預測了40％的賠率，高盛薩克斯（Goldman Sachs）比下一年的經濟衰退45％的機會，並將45％的jpmorgan conbase conbase and jpmorgan comptiment a and jpmorgan。

National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told Fox Business' on Monday he is “100% not” expecting a recession in 2025, explaining recent discussions with CEOs indicated the “uncertainty over tariffs” won’t be “a big drag” on the economy.

國家經濟委員會主任凱文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）週一對福克斯（Fox Business）表示，他“ 100％否”期望在2025年將會衰退，並解釋說，最近與首席執行官的討論表明，“關稅的不確定性”不會對經濟“大大拖累”。

Though the Trump administration’s backdown last week from its most aggressive tariffs alleviated concerns the U.S. was on the cusp of a recession, Hassett’s confidence is far from a consensus view among Wall Street bigwigs and prominent economists.

儘管特朗普政府上週從最具侵略性的關稅減輕了擔憂，但美國在經濟衰退的風口浪尖，但哈塞特的信心遠非華爾街大wig和著名經濟學家的共識。

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, said in a Sunday interview with NBC News: “Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession, and I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

億萬富翁的億萬富翁雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）在周日接受NBC新聞的採訪時說：“現在，我們正處於決策時，並且非常接近衰退，我擔心如果這樣做得不好，我會比經濟衰退更糟糕。”

Lawrence Summers, the former Treasury Secretary during President Bill Clinton’s term, said in a Monday editorial podcast in The New York Times he believes it’s “six in 10 or better that a recession will start this year,” explaining: “The pause is certainly better than if we had simply charged along on the catastrophic path that we’re on, but anybody who thinks the genie is back in the bottle and that it’s all now OK should reconsider their position.”

勞倫斯·薩默斯（Lawrence Summers）是比爾·克林頓（Bill Clinton）總統任期任期期間的前司務秘書，他在《紐約時報》的一次社論播客中說，他認為“今年將要衰退將在今年開始十分之六或更高”，“當然，臨時肯定是更好的說：“肯定會更好，如果我們只是在災難性的道路上，那就是我們現在都可以看出的那樣，這是我們現在的災難性之路。

Last week, Summers predicted such a downturn would leave an additional 2 million Americans unemployed, a more than 28% increase from the 7.1 million unemployed Americans in March, and a $5,000 or greater decline in annual household income.

上週，薩默斯（Summers）預測，這種低迷將使額外的200萬美國人失業，比3月份的710萬失業美國人增長了28％以上，每年的家庭收入下降了5,000美元或更高。

Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi said Monday on “CNN News Central” he sees the U.S. sinking into a recession over the next “three, four” weeks if the policy uncertainty is still “very thick,” saying he hopes “the president and the administration kind of finds an off ramp here and the trade war de-escalates.”

穆迪的分析馬克·贊迪（Mark Zandi）週一在“ CNN新聞中心”上表示，如果政策不確定性仍然“非常厚”，他認為美國在下一個“三，四個星期”中陷入了衰退，他希望“他希望“總統和政府在這裡找到一個偏高的問題，並在這裡找到一個貿易戰，而貿易戰降低了。 ”

Bank Of America Survey Finds Investors’ Economic Growth Expectations At 3-Decade Low

美國銀行調查發現投資者的經濟增長預期為3年。

Some 42% of big money managers now expect as of April—the fourth-highest monthly reading of the last two decades for Bank of America’s April fund manager survey, which also found the 82% of respondents expect weaker global economic growth, the highest reading in 30 years. The closely watched poll was conducted among 195 managers of an aggregate $444 billion assets under management April 4-10, the week after Trump announced his country-by-country tariffs.

現在，大約有42％的大型貨幣經理截至4月，這是美國銀行四月基金經理調查的過去二十年中第四高的每月閱讀，該調查還發現，82％的受訪者預計全球經濟增長較弱，是30年來最高的閱讀。密切關注的民意調查是在4月4日至10日的195名經理中進行的4440億美元資產，特朗普宣布他的國家 /地區關稅。

Crucial Quote

關鍵報價

“The prospect of a recession has increased,” Goldman CEO David Solomon said in a Monday earnings call. “Our clients, including corporate CEOs and institutional investors are concerned by the significant near-term and longer-term uncertainty that has constrained their ability to make important decisions,” continued Solomon.

高盛首席執行官戴維·所羅門（David Solomon）在周一的稅收電話會議上說：“經濟衰退的前景有所增加。”所羅門繼續說：“我們的客戶，包括公司首席執行官和機構投資者，對限制了他們做出重要決策能力的重大近期和長期不確定性感到關注。”

News Peg

新聞釘

Corporate earnings season is underway, which should better reveal the health of the economy during the first three months of 2025. United Airlines took a rarely seen step this week of issuing a pair of profit forecasts, one in the case of a recession, and one in the case of more stable growth. “A single consensus no longer exists, and therefore the Company’s expectation has become bimodal – either the U.S. economy will remain weaker but stable, or the U.S. may enter into a recession,” the company wrote in a regulatory filing.

公司收入季節正在進行中，這應該在2025年的前三個月中更好地揭示經濟健康狀況。 《聯合航空》本週很少見到一對利潤預測，在經濟衰退的情況下進行了兩步，而在一個更穩定的增長情況下。該公司在監管文件中寫道：“單一的共識不再存在，因此公司的期望已成為雙峰 - 要么美國經濟將保持較弱但穩定，要么美國可能會陷入衰退。”

Gold And Oil Prices Hint At Potential Global Slowdowngold and oil prices certainly point to the prospect of a global slowdown. Gold prices are up more than 10% this year to a record $3,300 per troy ounce as investors flood into the historic safe haven asset, while prices for international benchmark Brent Crude sank this month to their lowest point since 2021

黃金和石油價格暗示了潛在的全球放緩元，石油價格當然表明了全球放緩的前景。隨著投資者湧入歷史悠久的避風港資產，今年的黃金價格今年上漲了10％以上，達到每三盎司3,300美元，而國際基準Brent原油的價格本月將自2021年以來的最低點降至最低點。