担心由于唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）不断变化的关税政策而导致急剧经济衰退的恐惧正在遍布华尔街

联合国国际货币基金组织董事总经理克里斯塔利娜·格鲁吉瓦（Kristalina Georgieva）周四表示，由于贸易中断，该基金对其全球经济增长的预测“显着降低”

Fears of a sharp economic downturn due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are pervading Wall Street, as some of the most trusted observers of the economy say the U.S. is far from out of the woods on a tariff-driven recession, though the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday the border-spanning organization does not project such a downturn this year.

由于总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税政策而导致的急剧经济衰退的担忧遍布华尔街，因为经济的一些最值得信赖的观察者表示，美国在关税驱动的经济衰退中远非远离森林，尽管国际货币基金会周四表示，边境跨国公司在本周四并未投射出如此低迷的年度下降。

Since President Donald Trump took office in January, economic forecasts have been a rollercoaster.

自从唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统在一月份上任以来，经济预测一直是过山车。

Key Facts

关键事实

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the U.N. agency IMF, said Thursday the fund made “notable markdowns” to its global economic growth forecasts due to trade disruptions, though it still does not predict a recession, while warning the “high uncertainty raises the risk of financial market stress.”

联合国国际货币基金组织（IMF）董事总经理克里斯塔利娜·乔治达（Kristalina Georgieva）周四表示，由于贸易破坏，该基金对其全球经济增长预测的“明显降低”，尽管它仍然没有预测经济衰退，同时警告“高不确定性会增加金融市场压力的风险”。

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Tuesday his bank’s baseline economic forecast does not call for a recession this year, but other big banks’ economic models still indicate the chance of a recession this year remains a tossup: Morgan Stanley forecasts 40% odds, Goldman Sachs places 45% likelihood of a recession over the next year and JPMorgan Chase projects a 60% chance.

美国银行首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼汉（Brian Moynihan）周二表示，他的银行的基准经济预测并不要求今年的经济衰退，但是其他大型银行的经济模式仍然表明，今年衰退的机会仍然是一次折磨：摩根史丹利预测了40％的赔率，高盛萨克斯（Goldman Sachs）比下一年的经济衰退45％的机会，并将45％的jpmorgan conbase conbase and jpmorgan comptiment a and jpmorgan。

National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told Fox Business' on Monday he is “100% not” expecting a recession in 2025, explaining recent discussions with CEOs indicated the “uncertainty over tariffs” won’t be “a big drag” on the economy.

国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）周一对福克斯（Fox Business）表示，他“ 100％否”期望在2025年将会衰退，并解释说，最近与首席执行官的讨论表明，“关税的不确定性”不会对经济“大大拖累”。

Though the Trump administration’s backdown last week from its most aggressive tariffs alleviated concerns the U.S. was on the cusp of a recession, Hassett’s confidence is far from a consensus view among Wall Street bigwigs and prominent economists.

尽管特朗普政府上周从最具侵略性的关税减轻了担忧，但美国在经济衰退的风口浪尖，但哈塞特的信心远非华尔街大wig和著名经济学家的共识。

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, said in a Sunday interview with NBC News: “Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession, and I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

亿万富翁的亿万富翁雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）在周日接受NBC新闻的采访时说：“现在，我们正处于决策时，并且非常接近衰退，我担心如果这样做得不好，我会比经济衰退更糟糕。”

Lawrence Summers, the former Treasury Secretary during President Bill Clinton’s term, said in a Monday editorial podcast in The New York Times he believes it’s “six in 10 or better that a recession will start this year,” explaining: “The pause is certainly better than if we had simply charged along on the catastrophic path that we’re on, but anybody who thinks the genie is back in the bottle and that it’s all now OK should reconsider their position.”

劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）是比尔·克林顿（Bill Clinton）总统任期任期期间的前司务秘书，他在《纽约时报》的一次社论播客中说，他认为“今年将要衰退将在今年开始十分之六或更高”，“当然，临时肯定是更好的说：“肯定会更好，如果我们只是在灾难性的道路上，那就是我们现在都可以看出的那样，这是我们现在的灾难性之路。

Last week, Summers predicted such a downturn would leave an additional 2 million Americans unemployed, a more than 28% increase from the 7.1 million unemployed Americans in March, and a $5,000 or greater decline in annual household income.

上周，萨默斯（Summers）预测，这种低迷将使额外的200万美国人失业，比3月份的710万失业美国人增长了28％以上，每年的家庭收入下降了5,000美元或更高。

Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi said Monday on “CNN News Central” he sees the U.S. sinking into a recession over the next “three, four” weeks if the policy uncertainty is still “very thick,” saying he hopes “the president and the administration kind of finds an off ramp here and the trade war de-escalates.”

穆迪的分析马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）周一在“ CNN新闻中心”上表示，如果政策不确定性仍然“非常厚”，他认为美国在下一个“三，四个星期”中陷入了衰退，他希望“他希望“总统和政府在这里找到一个偏高的问题，并在这里找到一个贸易战，而贸易战降低了。”

Bank Of America Survey Finds Investors’ Economic Growth Expectations At 3-Decade Low

美国银行调查发现投资者的经济增长预期为3年。

Some 42% of big money managers now expect as of April—the fourth-highest monthly reading of the last two decades for Bank of America’s April fund manager survey, which also found the 82% of respondents expect weaker global economic growth, the highest reading in 30 years. The closely watched poll was conducted among 195 managers of an aggregate $444 billion assets under management April 4-10, the week after Trump announced his country-by-country tariffs.

现在，大约有42％的大型货币经理截至4月，这是美国银行四月基金经理调查的过去二十年中第四高的每月阅读，该调查还发现，82％的受访者预计全球经济增长较弱，是30年来最高的阅读。密切关注的民意调查是在4月4日至10日的195名经理中进行的4440亿美元资产，特朗普宣布他的国家 /地区关税。

Crucial Quote

关键报价

“The prospect of a recession has increased,” Goldman CEO David Solomon said in a Monday earnings call. “Our clients, including corporate CEOs and institutional investors are concerned by the significant near-term and longer-term uncertainty that has constrained their ability to make important decisions,” continued Solomon.

高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门（David Solomon）在周一的税收电话会议上说：“经济衰退的前景有所增加。”所罗门继续说：“我们的客户，包括公司首席执行官和机构投资者，对限制了他们做出重要决策能力的重大近期和长期不确定性感到关注。”

News Peg

新闻钉

Corporate earnings season is underway, which should better reveal the health of the economy during the first three months of 2025. United Airlines took a rarely seen step this week of issuing a pair of profit forecasts, one in the case of a recession, and one in the case of more stable growth. “A single consensus no longer exists, and therefore the Company’s expectation has become bimodal – either the U.S. economy will remain weaker but stable, or the U.S. may enter into a recession,” the company wrote in a regulatory filing.

公司收入季节正在进行中，这应该在2025年的前三个月中更好地揭示经济健康状况。《联合航空》本周很少见到一对利润预测，在经济衰退的情况下进行了两步，而在一个更稳定的增长情况下。该公司在监管文件中写道：“单一的共识不再存在，因此公司的期望已成为双峰 - 要么美国经济将保持较弱但稳定，要么美国可能会陷入衰退。”

Gold And Oil Prices Hint At Potential Global Slowdowngold and oil prices certainly point to the prospect of a global slowdown. Gold prices are up more than 10% this year to a record $3,300 per troy ounce as investors flood into the historic safe haven asset, while prices for international benchmark Brent Crude sank this month to their lowest point since 2021

黄金和石油价格暗示了潜在的全球放缓元，石油价格当然表明了全球放缓的前景。随着投资者涌入历史悠久的避风港资产，今年的黄金价格今年上涨了10％以上，达到每三盎司3,300美元，而国际基准Brent原油的价格本月将自2021年以来的最低点降至最低点。