以太坊表現落後44%！與比特幣相比下降的原因

自 2022 年 9 月以太坊過渡到權益證明 (PoS) 共識模型以來，該加密貨幣的表現比比特幣低了 44%。

Since Ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus model in September 2022, the crypto has indeed underperformed compared to Bitcoin (BTC) by 44%. This underperformance is particularly striking considering the high expectations surrounding “The Merge”, an event that was supposed to herald a new era of efficiency and sustainability for Ethereum.

自 2022 年 9 月以太坊過渡到權益證明 (PoS) 共識模型以來，與比特幣 (BTC) 相比，加密貨幣的表現確實落後了 44%。考慮到人們對「合併」的高期望，這種表現不佳尤其引人注目，這一事件本應預示著以太坊進入了效率和可持續性的新時代。

One of the main reasons for this underperformance is the decline in Ethereum network activity compared to Bitcoin. Cumulative transaction fees on the Ethereum network have decreased, partly due to the Dencun update which reduced median transfer fees. In contrast, the Bitcoin network has seen unprecedented levels of transactional activity, mainly thanks to new Layer 2 solutions and inscriptions.

表現不佳的主要原因之一是與比特幣相比，以太坊網路活動有所下降。以太坊網路上的累積交易費用有所下降，部分原因是 Dencun 更新降低了轉帳費用中位數。相比之下，比特幣網路的交易活動達到了前所未有的水平，這主要歸功於新的第 2 層解決方案和銘文。

The ETH/BTC price ratio is currently at 0.0425, its lowest level since April 2021. This figure indicates that despite the technical improvements brought by “The Merge”, Ethereum has failed to dominate the market as expected. In July, even the approval of spot ETFs based on Ethereum in the United States wasn't enough to reverse this trend, with an additional 18% drop.

ETH/BTC價格比目前為0.0425，為2021年4月以來的最低水平。 7月份，即使基於以太坊的現貨ETF在美國獲得批准，也不足以扭轉這一趨勢，進一步下跌了18%。

Unfavorable supply dynamics and lower transfer fees have also contributed to this underperformance. The ETH/BTC market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is now 0.6, meaning Ethereum could still fall before hitting its undervaluation zone, identified at a ratio of 0.45. The last time Ethereum entered this zone, its price was 0.02 compared to Bitcoin, suggesting a potential further decline.

不利的供應動態和較低的轉讓費也導致了表現不佳。 ETH/BTC 市值與實現價值 (MVRV) 比率目前為 0.6，這意味著以太坊在觸及低估區域（比率為 0.45）之前仍可能下跌。以太坊上次進入該區域時，其價格與比特幣相比為 0.02，表明可能會進一步下跌。

Interestingly, despite Ethereum's current underperformance, experts predict that this network could outperform Bitcoin by 2029, thanks to its technical improvements and growing adoption. Although “The Merge” was a technical success, it has not yet delivered the expected market performance benefits for Ethereum. Investors seem to prefer Bitcoin, as the data shows. The current situation thus highlights the importance of network activity and supply dynamics in the relative performance of cryptocurrencies.

有趣的是，儘管以太坊目前表現不佳，但專家預測，由於其技術改進和日益普及，到 2029 年該網路的表現可能會超過比特幣。儘管「The Merge」在技術上取得了成功，但尚未為以太坊帶來預期的市場表現效益。數據顯示，投資人似乎更喜歡比特幣。因此，目前的情況凸顯了網路活動和供應動態在加密貨幣相對錶現中的重要性。