以太坊（ETH）在這個週期中已經達到頂峰嗎？

自2025年5月初以來，以太坊（ETH）上演了一個顯著的恢復，在5月的頭幾天中，4月中旬的$ 2,200增加到了2,600美元以上。

Since early May 2025, Ethereum (ETH) has staged a notable recovery, rising from around $2,200 in mid-April to above $2,600 in the first days of May.

自2025年5月初以來，以太坊（ETH）上演了一個顯著的恢復，在5月的頭幾天中，4月中旬的$ 2,200增加到了2,600美元以上。

However, despite the strong price rebound, on-chain signals and market sentiment suggest that ETH may not have entered its true breakout phase in this cycle. Instead, the current rally appears to be driven mainly by institutional accumulation, while common indicators of an “altseason” have yet to clearly emerge.

但是，儘管價格有很高的反彈，但鏈上信號和市場情緒表明，在本週期中，ETH可能沒有進入其真正的突破階段。取而代之的是，目前的集會似乎主要是由機構積累驅動的，而“季前賽”的共同指標尚未明顯出現。

Is Ethereum already at its peak or is this just the beginning of a new growth phase?

以太坊已經達到頂峰，還是僅僅是新增長階段的開始？

Ethereum Gas: A Reflection of the Ecosystem’s Real Demand

以太坊氣體：反映生態系統的真實需求

One of the key indicators that the Ethereum ecosystem has not fully heated up again is the current gas fee level. According to data from Ultrasound Money, average gas prices have remained low, often below 25 gwei for several consecutive weeks.

以太坊生態系統尚未完全加熱的關鍵指標之一是當前的汽油費水平。根據超聲貨幣的數據，平均汽油價格仍然很低，通常連續幾週低於25 GWEI。

This is modest compared to previous bull markets, when gas prices often exceeded 100 gwei due to surging demand for dApps, NFTs, and DeFi activity.

與以前的牛市相比，這是適度的，因為由於對DAPP，NFTS和DEFI活動的需求激增，汽油價格通常超過100 GWEI。

Source: Ultrasound

資料來源：超聲波

It indicates that major trends in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as NFTs, DeFi, SocialFi, or memecoins, have yet to generate enough pressure to push the network into congestion. While ETH’s price is rising, actual on-chain activity remains cautious – a sign that the current rally lacks the retail-driven FOMO typically seen at cycle peaks.

它表明以太坊生態系統（例如NFTS，DEFI，Socialfi或Memecoins）的主要趨勢尚未產生足夠的壓力以將網絡推向擁堵。儘管ETH的價格上漲，但實際的鏈上活動仍然謹慎 - 這表明目前的集會缺乏零售驅動的FOMO，通常在周期峰值上看到。

Institutions Are Accumulating, But That Doesn’t Mean ETH Is Ready to Soar

機構正在積累，但這並不意味著ETH準備飆升

According to data from Glassnode, institutional capital continues to flow into ETH through investment vehicles such as the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and CME futures. The growing accumulation by whale wallets and institutional players suggests increasing long-term confidence in ETH.

根據GlassNode的數據，機構資本繼續通過諸如灰度以太坊信託（ETHE）和CME Futures等投資工具進入ETH。鯨魚錢包和機構參與者的積累日益增長表明，對ETH的長期信心提高。

Source: Coinglass

資料來源：小店

Altseason Not Yet Here: Index Remains in the Lows

altseason還沒有：索引仍然處於低點

Another important indicator is the Altseason Index, which measures the relative strength of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. Currently, the index is still hovering below 30, indicating that the market has not yet entered a full-blown FOMO phase for tokens smaller than ETH. In previous cycles, this index typically had to exceed 75 to confirm that an altseason had truly begun.

另一個重要的指標是Altsease指數，該指數衡量了與比特幣相比的替代幣的相對強度。目前，該指數仍在30歲以下，這表明該市場尚未進入小於ETH的代幣成熟的FOMO階段。在以前的周期中，該指數通常必須超過75個，以確認Altseason確實已經開始。

With altseason still absent, it suggests that ETH – as the leading representative – has yet to reach its final euphoric peak in this cycle. This leaves room for ETH to continue rising, but the market needs more time for a clearer rotation of capital from BTC into higher-risk assets.

由於Altseason仍然缺席，這表明ETH作為領先的代表 - 在這個週期中尚未達到其最終的欣喜高峰。這為ETH留出了繼續上升的空間，但是市場需要更多的時間才能將BTC的資本更清晰地旋轉到高風險的資產。

Source: BlockchainCenter

來源：區塊鏈

What’s particularly notable is that despite ETH’s strong recent rally, the Altseason Index has remained subdued. Historically, such a powerful move in ETH would trigger broader market enthusiasm and push the index higher. The fact that this has not happened indicates that there is still significant untapped potential in the altcoin market, and further upside momentum could emerge as capital is gradually rotates from BTC.

特別值得注意的是，儘管ETH最近舉行了強烈的集會，但Altseason指數仍然柔和。從歷史上看，在ETH中，如此強大的舉動將引發更廣泛的市場熱情，並將指數提高。這尚未發生的事實表明，山寨幣市場仍然存在巨大的未開發潛力，並且隨著資本逐漸從BTC旋轉，可能會出現進一步的上升勢頭。

ETH Shorts No Longer at Record Highs, Has the Market Turned?

ETH短褲不再處於創紀錄的高點，市場轉向了嗎？

Data from Coinglass shows a significant shift in Ethereum’s derivatives market positioning. The 24-hour Long/Short ratio is currently (0.9585), while top traders on Binance are showing a clear bias toward long positions with a nearly 3:1 ratio (2.9766).

來自Coinglass的數據顯示以太坊的衍生物市場定位發生了重大變化。 24小時長/短比率目前為（0.9585），而二手交易者對長位置顯示出明顯的偏見，即將接近3：1的比例（2.9766）。

In addition, total short liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $26.88 million, while long liquidations were significantly higher at $71.85 million. In reality, short positioning has weakened considerably compared to February 2025, when it had surged over 500% since November of the previous year.

此外，在過去的24小時中，總的短量清算量達到2688萬美元，而長量清算顯著高於7185萬美元。實際上，與2025年2月相比，短期定位較弱，自上一年11月以來，它飆升了500％以上。

This suggests that institutional players may be gradually abandoning a bearish short-term outlook and instead waiting for stronger signals to confirm a sustained bullish trend in ETH. The market currently appears to be in a phase of positioning and recalibration rather than another large-scale short wave.

這表明，機構參與者可能會逐漸放棄看跌的短期前景，而是等待更強的信號確認ETH的持續看漲趨勢。當前的市場似乎處於定位和重新校準的階段，而不是另一個大型短波。

Ethereum’s Potentially Leading Trends Still Awaiting Activation

以太坊的潛在領先趨勢仍在等待激活

Ethereum remains the foundational platform for many of the most promising trends of this new cycle, including:

以太坊仍然是該新周期中許多最有希望的趨勢的基礎平台，包括：

However, the common denominator across these trends is that none has truly exploded to the point of lifting the entire ecosystem. This reinforces the view that ETH remains in the final accumulation phase of a mid-cycle, rather than having reached a cycle top.

但是，這些趨勢的共同點是，沒有人真正爆炸到提升整個生態系統的地步。這加強了這樣一種觀點，即ETH仍處於中期週期的最終積累階段，而不是達到週期頂部。

Conclusion

結論

Recent ETH price gains are a positive sign, but they are not enough to confirm that Ethereum’s growth cycle has peaked. With low gas fees, a weak altseason index, muted ecosystem activity, and growing institutional short positions, ETH is likely still in a pre-breakout phase.

最近的ETH價格上漲是一個積極的跡象，但它們不足以確認以太坊的增長周期已經達到頂峰。由於氣體費用低，較弱的Altseason指數，靜音的生態系統活動以及機構短期位置的增長，ETH可能仍處於破裂前的階段。

This means long-term investors may still have an opportunity to accumulate ETH at reasonable prices before the cycle truly tops out. At the same time, caution is warranted in the short term, as the market has yet to fully “mature” in this current rally phase.

這意味著長期投資者可能仍然有機會以合理的價格積累ETH，然後才能真正提高。同時，由於市場在當前的拉力賽階段尚未完全“成熟”，因此要謹慎行事。

Once trends like restaking,

曾經像恢復一樣趨勢