ETH的集會雖然令人印象深刻，但仍有很多不足

Ether的Eth $ Rally雖然令人印象深刻，但仍有很多不足之處。那是因為據說休息短褲會助長集會，而不是新鮮的渴望或看漲

Ether’s (ETH$) rally, though noteworthy, may be leaving some details untold.

以太（Ether）的集會雖然值得注意，但可能會留下一些細節。

As the recent surge in ether prices has been swift and significant, it’s heating up an interesting discussion: Is this rally being fueled by fresh longs, leveraged bets on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives, or something else entirely?

隨著最近的以太價格迅速迅速迅速而繁榮，它正在加熱一個有趣的討論：這次集會是由新鮮的渴望加劇，槓桿押注芝加哥商業交易所（CME）衍生品，還是其他東西？

According to Sui Chung, CEO of crypto index provider CF Benchmarks, the rally is primarily the result of traders covering their shorts, not a sudden surge of bullish conviction in the ether market. CME's derivatives, preferred by institutions, track the CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York (BRRNY) variant.

Crypto索引提供商CF基準的首席執行官Sui Chung表示，集會主要是交易者覆蓋短褲的結果，而不是在以太市場中突然的看漲信念激增。 CME的衍生工具受到機構的首選，跟踪CF基準的比特幣參考率-New York（BRRNY）變體。

When bears cover their shorts, it means they are buying back futures contracts that were initially sold. This action of short covering temporarily boosts demand in the market, putting upward pressure on prices.

當熊隊覆蓋短褲時，這意味著他們正在回購最初出售的期貨合約。短暫覆蓋的這種行動暫時增強了市場的需求，給價格上漲。

Chung highlighted the still-low CME futures premium (basis) as a key indicator of the short-covering narrative.

Chung強調了仍然低的CME期貨溢價（基礎），作為短期覆蓋敘事的關鍵指標。

While ether's spot price has surged nearly 90% to above $2,600 since the early April sell-off, the annualized one-month basis in the CME's ether has held flat between 6% and 10%, according to data source Velo.

根據數據源Velo的數據，雖然Ether的現貨價格自4月初拋售以來的價格上漲了近90％，至2,600美元以上，但CME Ether的年度化為期一個月的基礎已保持6％至10％。

"In more conventional setups, we would expect rising basis levels if traders were initiating fresh longs with leverage," Chung noted. "It's a reminder that not all rallies are fueled by new demand; sometimes, they reflect repositioning and risk reduction."

Chung指出：“在更常規的設置中，如果交易者發起新鮮的渴望，我們預計基礎水平會上升。” “這提醒人們，並非所有的集會都受到新需求的推動；有時，它們反映了重新定位和降低風險。”

One might argue that the basis has remained steady due to sophisticated trades "arbing" away the price difference between the CME ETH futures and the spot index price by shorting futures and buying ETH spot ETFs. However, that argument seems weak when considering the U.S.-listed spot ETFs have seen net positive inflows on just ten trading days in the past four weeks.

有人可能會認為，由於賣空CME ETH期貨與現貨指數價格之間的價格差異，基礎一直保持穩定。但是，考慮到過去四個星期的十個交易日，在考慮美國上市的ETF時，該論點似乎很弱。

Moreover, the net inflows tallied more than $100 million just once, according to the data source SoSoValue.

此外，根據數據源Sosovalue的數據，淨流入僅佔1億美元以上。

"The lack of inflows into ETH ETFs and the muted basis paints a different picture, and this latest move higher doesn't appear to be driven by new leveraged longs," Chung added.

Chung補充說：“缺乏流入ETH ETF的流入和混亂的基礎描繪了不同的圖片，而最新的舉動似乎並不是由新的槓桿型渴望驅動的。”