不要將科技裁員誤認為經濟衰退

如果就業人數如此強勁，為何伊隆馬斯克要削減 Twitter 的員工人數？

Despite strong job numbers, Twitter is reportedly planning layoffs. Here's why that doesn't signal a recession.

儘管就業數據強勁，但據報道推特仍在計劃裁員。這就是為什麼這並不預示著經濟衰退。

Two pieces of news landed Friday morning that seemed designed to confuse and mildly upset people in their own special way.

週五早上發布的兩則新聞似乎旨在以自己特殊的方式讓人們感到困惑和輕微不安。

On the one hand, we got news that Twitter, now owned by a visibly flailing Elon Musk, has threatened a round of layoffs that could cut as much as 50% of the social platform's staff.

一方面，我們得到消息稱，現在由明顯陷入困境的 Elon Musk 擁有的 Twitter 已威脅要進行一輪裁員，可能會裁減該社交平台多達 50% 的員工。

On the other, we got a jobs report that dramatically outperformed Wall Street projections. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal predicted that an average of 205,000 jobs would be added this quarter. Instead we got 261,000 new jobs, blowing out expectations even as unemployment rose by a hair to 3.7%.

另一方面，我們得到的就業報告大大超越了華爾街的預測。 《華爾街日報》調查的經濟學家預測，本季平均將增加 205,000 個就業機會。相反，我們創造了 261,000 個新就業崗位，超出了預期，儘管失業率上升了一點點至 3.7%。

The pair of items are a reminder of the deep disconnection between the tech sector and the rest of the economy. The Musk/Twitter situation is very unique and hilarious. But it’s also a typically Muskian exaggeration of the wider forces driving tech, at least for the moment, in the opposite direction of the rest of the U.S. economy.

這兩個項目提醒人們科技業與其他經濟領域之間的深度脫節。馬斯克/推特的情況非常獨特且搞笑。但這也是典型的馬斯克式對推動科技發展的更廣泛力量的誇大，至少目前是這樣，與美國經濟其他領域的發展方向相反。

Elon Musk is laying off half of Twitter staff because he bumbled into trapping himself buying a pig in a poke. In April he made an unsolicited offer of $44.20 per share for the company. That looked vaguely like a good deal at the time because Twitter, along with every other “tech” or “stay at home” stock, saw an absurd and clearly unsustainable run-up in equity prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, because (never forget) equity investors as a whole are a bunch of lemmings.

馬斯克(Elon Musk)正在解僱一半的推特員工，因為他無意中陷入了買豬的困境。 4 月份，他主動提出收購該公司每股 44.20 美元的要約。當時這看起來似乎是一筆划算的交易，因為 Twitter 與所有其他「科技」或「居家」股票一樣，在 COVID-19 大流行期間看到了股價荒謬且明顯不可持續的上漲，因為（從來沒有忘記了）股票投資者作為一個整體是一群旅鼠。

See also: Reading Elon’s Tea Leaves / Opinion

另請參閱：閱讀埃隆的茶葉/意見

Musk is apparently not any smarter than those lemmings, or at least not any better at controlling his emotions. That $44 billion is 20%-25% above the market cap Twitter had pre-pandemic, and Musk now has to finance a $13 billion mountain of debt that may well outpace Twitter’s own inconsistent and mediocre profit stream. This is, with little exaggeration, the equivalent of buying Peloton for $44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 because you thought people would continue buying overpriced stationary bikes forever.

馬斯克顯然不比那些旅鼠聰明，或至少不擅長控制自己的情緒。這 440 億美元比 Twitter 在大流行前的市值高出 20%-25%，而馬斯克現在必須為 130 億美元的巨額債務融資，這很可能超過 Twitter 自身不穩定且平庸的利潤流。毫不誇張地說，這相當於在 2020 年第四季斥資 440 億美元收購 Peloton，因為你認為人們會永遠繼續購買價格過高的固定自行車。

That’s why Musk’s both throwing crew off the Twitter ship at a pace likely to destabilize operations, and floating revenue-focused ideas, like charging for verification, that seem to reflect a profound misunderstanding of how the platform works. Personally, things are already so unhinged I’m ready to predict that Twitter under Musk crashes and burns, forcing a fire sale and/or a fresh public offering that leaves Musk personally in the hole for billions of dollars.

這就是為什麼馬斯克既以可能破壞營運穩定的速度將員工從 Twitter 上解僱，又提出了以收入為中心的想法，例如對驗證收費，這似乎反映出對該平台運作方式的深刻誤解。就我個人而言，事情已經如此混亂，我已經準備好預測馬斯克領導下的推特將崩潰並燒毀，迫使其進行減價出售和/或重新公開募股，這將使馬斯克個人陷入數十億美元的困境。

But as much as this is peak Elon Musk clownish nonsense, it is also the story, in microcosm, of the larger tech sector. For roughly a decade, “tech” (formal definition: any company that can convince a venture capitalist that it is “tech”) has run substantially on debt. Financial debt, yes, eased by a zero interest rate era that is now coming to a violent close.

儘管這是伊隆馬斯克最滑稽的胡言亂語，但這也是更大科技產業的縮影。大約十年來，「科技」（正式定義：任何能夠讓創投家相信自己是「科技」的公司）一直在負債累累。是的，金融債務因零利率時代而有所緩解，而零利率時代現在即將結束。

See also: Time to Decide: Are You an Investor or a Gambler? | Opinion

另請參閱：是時候做出決定了：您是投資者還是賭徒？ |觀點

But tech has also run on a more conceptual sort of debt, underwritten by forward-looking promises priced into the equity even of profitable operations like Amazon, Google, and Facebook/Meta. Meta in particular, with its stock down an aneurysm-inducing 70% since January, is showing what happens when the future becomes the present and you haven’t risen to meet it.

但科技公司也依靠一種更概念性的債務來運行，這些債務是由前瞻性承諾承保的，這些承諾甚至包括亞馬遜、谷歌和 Facebook/Meta 等盈利業務的股權。尤其是 Meta，自 1 月以來，其股價已下跌了 70%，令人心碎，它正在向人們展示，當未來變成現在，而你還沒有站起來迎接它時，會發生什麼。

Yet, it’s all happening at the same time as workers and companies in the rest of the economy are, if not entirely thriving, certainly healthy. Inflation is a serious looming worry – but it’s also deeply tied to this meta-economic rotation. The influx of cash that helped so many Americans during the pandemic is at least one factor in both current inflation and jobs strength. That cash plus the ensuing inflation is also likely driving a shift of wealth from the types of people who invest in venture-backed startups to the type of people who “invest” in food, cars, sneakers, gasoline and health care – categories among the top equity gainers right now.

然而，在這一切發生的同時，其他經濟領域的工人和公司即使不是完全繁榮，也肯定是健康的。通貨膨脹是一個迫在眉睫的嚴重擔憂，但它也與這種元經濟輪調密切相關。在疫情期間幫助瞭如此多美國人的現金湧入至少是當前通膨和就業強勁的因素之一。這些現金加上隨之而來的通貨膨脹也可能推動財富從投資風險投資支持的新創公司的人轉向「投資」食品、汽車、運動鞋、汽油和醫療保健的人——這些類別屬於目前股市漲幅最大的股票。

The past decade in tech has given rise to not just holy fools like Elon Musk but to outright swindlers like Elizabeth Holmes and Adam Neumann (who both, notably, pitched their non-tech companies under tech banners). Maybe a little harsh discipline isn’t such a bad thing – especially if the trade-off is more jobs for the rest of us.

過去十年，科技領域不僅誕生了埃隆馬斯克（Elon Musk）這樣的傻瓜，還誕生了伊麗莎白·霍姆斯（Elizabeth Holmes）和亞當·諾伊曼（Adam Neumann）這樣的徹頭徹尾的騙子（值得注意的是，他們都打著科技旗號推銷自己的非科技公司）。也許一點嚴厲的紀律並不是一件壞事——特別是如果代價是為我們其他人提供更多的就業機會的話。

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