經過漫長的沙漠過境，山寨幣終於顯示出覺醒的跡象

在過去的三年中，比特幣的優勢一直在不斷增長，從39％上升到今天的65％。該級別代表了一種主要的技術抵抗，從歷史上看，它已經系統地逆轉了大量的市場逆轉。

After a prolonged desert crossing, altcoins are finally displaying signs of awakening. In a remarkable display of resilience, Ethereum has surged by more than 32% in a single week, rekindling hope for a true "altseason." As Bitcoin dominance reaches 65% of the total market capitalization, many analysts are interpreting this milestone as a harbinger of an imminent shift in market favor.

在長時間的沙漠穿越之後，Altcoins終於顯示出覺醒的跡象。在一個顯著的彈性展示中，以太坊在一個星期內飆升了32％以上，重新激發了對真正的“ Altseason”的希望。隨著比特幣優勢達到總市值的65％，許多分析師將這一里程碑解釋為即將轉變市場青睞的預兆。

Bitcoin Dominance at a Crucial Technical Resistance

比特幣在至關重要的技術抵抗力下優勢

比特幣在至關重要的技術抵抗力下優勢

Over the past three years, Bitcoin dominance has steadily grown, starting from 39% and reaching nearly 65% today. This level represents a major technical resistance which, historically, has systematically preceded significant market reversals.

在過去的三年中，比特幣優勢穩步增長，從39％開始，今天達到了近65％。該級別代表了一種主要的技術抵抗，從歷史上看，它已經系統地逆轉了大量的市場逆轉。

At this threshold, a steeper decline in Bitcoin dominance is anticipated, paving the way for a swift recovery in altcoins.

在這個門檻上，預計比特幣優勢會更加急劇下降，為迅速恢復Altcoins鋪平了道路。

This analysis is further supported by the identification of an ascending wedge pattern on the dominance chart, a chart pattern generally heralding a bearish reversal.

通過在主導圖表上識別上升楔形模式進一步支持了這種分析，圖表模式通常會預示看跌的逆轉。

Integration of Macroeconomic Factors

宏觀經濟因素的整合

宏觀經濟因素的整合

This technical outlook is interwoven with recent macroeconomic developments.

這種技術前景與最近的宏觀經濟發展交織在一起。

The Chinese central bank has lowered its interest rates to a historic floor of 1.3%, and reduced the reserve requirements for commercial banks. These quantitative easing measures have injected substantial liquidity into global financial markets, leading to an appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar.

中國央行將其利率降低到歷史悠久的地板1.3％，並降低了商業銀行的儲備要求。這些量化措施已向全球金融市場注入了大量的流動性，從而對元人民幣兌美元匯率表示讚賞。

This monetary relationship directly influences cryptocurrencies.

這種貨幣關係直接影響加密貨幣。

When the yuan appreciates, the US dollar weakens, which signals a positive economic cycle and contributes to strength in the altcoin markets.

當人民幣欣賞時，美元削弱了，這標誌著積極的經濟周期，並有助於替補市場的實力。

Expert Perspectives on the Coming Months

對未來幾個月的專家觀點

對未來幾個月的專家觀點

While some experts see this convergence of signals as the start of an explosive altseason, others remain more cautious.

儘管一些專家將這種信號的融合視為爆炸性的季后賽的開始，但其他人則更加謹慎。

Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, notes that "this cycle is different, because when BlackRock and Saylor buy Bitcoin, they merely hold it and do not trade it against altcoins."

阿波羅（Apollo）的聯合創始人托馬斯·法勒（Thomas Fahrer）指出：“這個週期是不同的，因為當貝萊德（Blackrock）和塞勒（Saylor）購買比特幣時，他們只是持有它，而不會與Altcoins進行交易。”

This lack of arbitrage opportunities could hinder a rapid shift in favor of altcoins, despite the strong technical signals.

儘管技術信號強烈，但缺乏套利機會可能會阻礙替代幣的迅速轉變。

Nic, co-founder of Coinbase, offers a more nuanced perspective on the term "altcoin season." For him, several conditions need to be met for a true altcoin season to occur.

Coinbase的聯合創始人Nic在“ Altcoin季節”一詞中提供了更細微的觀點。對他來說，真正需要滿足真正的Altcoin季節。

Firstly, Bitcoin dominance should fall below 54%, a level at which the market begins to factor in a pessimistic scenario for Bitcoin and a corresponding bullish outlook for altcoins.

首先，比特幣優勢應降至54％以下，在這種水平上，市場開始考慮比特幣的悲觀情景以及對山寨幣的相應看漲前景。

Secondly, the Fed needs to introduce official monetary easing measures, reducing interest rates and injecting liquidity into the markets.

其次，美聯儲需要引入官方的貨幣緩和措施，降低利率並將流動性注入市場。

Finally, Bitcoin should stabilize at all-time highs, facilitating the flow of capital into altcoins.

最後，比特幣應在歷史最高的高點上穩定，從而促進資本流入山寨幣。

A Different Dynamic for 2025

2025年的不同動態

2025年的不同動態

The Kaiko Research report also suggests that 2025 might favor targeted investments in certain altcoins rather than a generalized rally.

Kaiko研究報告還表明，2025年可能有利於針對某些Altcoins的有針對性的投資，而不是廣義的集會。

The first cryptos to benefit would likely be the established "dinosaurs," including Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, BNB, and Litecoin.

第一個受益的加密貨幣可能是既定的“恐龍”，包括以太坊，XRP，Cardano，Chainlink，BNB和Litecoin。

This convergence of technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain signals suggests that a major turning point is approaching for the crypto market. The historic resistance of Bitcoin dominance at 65% could well be the last bastion before a spectacular rebalancing in favor of altcoins.

技術，宏觀經濟和鍊鍊信號的這種融合表明，一個主要的轉折點是加密市場。比特幣優勢佔65％的歷史性抵抗很可能是壯觀的重新平衡以支持AltCoins的最後一個堡壘。

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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

對比特幣充滿熱情，我喜歡探索區塊鍊和加密貨幣的曲折，並與社區分享我的發現。我的夢想是生活在一個保證每個人的隱私和財務自由的世界中，我堅信比特幣是可以實現這一目標的工具。