After a Long Desert Crossing, Altcoins Are Finally Showing Signs of Awakening

Bitcoin dominance has continuously grown over the past three years, rising from 39% to nearly 65% today. This level represents a major technical resistance which, historically, has systematically preceded significant market reversals.

After a prolonged desert crossing, altcoins are finally displaying signs of awakening. In a remarkable display of resilience, Ethereum has surged by more than 32% in a single week, rekindling hope for a true "altseason." As Bitcoin dominance reaches 65% of the total market capitalization, many analysts are interpreting this milestone as a harbinger of an imminent shift in market favor.

Bitcoin Dominance at a Crucial Technical Resistance

Over the past three years, Bitcoin dominance has steadily grown, starting from 39% and reaching nearly 65% today. This level represents a major technical resistance which, historically, has systematically preceded significant market reversals.

At this threshold, a steeper decline in Bitcoin dominance is anticipated, paving the way for a swift recovery in altcoins.

This analysis is further supported by the identification of an ascending wedge pattern on the dominance chart, a chart pattern generally heralding a bearish reversal.

Integration of Macroeconomic Factors

This technical outlook is interwoven with recent macroeconomic developments.

The Chinese central bank has lowered its interest rates to a historic floor of 1.3%, and reduced the reserve requirements for commercial banks. These quantitative easing measures have injected substantial liquidity into global financial markets, leading to an appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar.

This monetary relationship directly influences cryptocurrencies.

When the yuan appreciates, the US dollar weakens, which signals a positive economic cycle and contributes to strength in the altcoin markets.

Expert Perspectives on the Coming Months

While some experts see this convergence of signals as the start of an explosive altseason, others remain more cautious.

Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, notes that "this cycle is different, because when BlackRock and Saylor buy Bitcoin, they merely hold it and do not trade it against altcoins."

This lack of arbitrage opportunities could hinder a rapid shift in favor of altcoins, despite the strong technical signals.

Nic, co-founder of Coinbase, offers a more nuanced perspective on the term "altcoin season." For him, several conditions need to be met for a true altcoin season to occur.

Firstly, Bitcoin dominance should fall below 54%, a level at which the market begins to factor in a pessimistic scenario for Bitcoin and a corresponding bullish outlook for altcoins.

Secondly, the Fed needs to introduce official monetary easing measures, reducing interest rates and injecting liquidity into the markets.

Finally, Bitcoin should stabilize at all-time highs, facilitating the flow of capital into altcoins.

A Different Dynamic for 2025

The Kaiko Research report also suggests that 2025 might favor targeted investments in certain altcoins rather than a generalized rally.

The first cryptos to benefit would likely be the established "dinosaurs," including Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, BNB, and Litecoin.

This convergence of technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain signals suggests that a major turning point is approaching for the crypto market. The historic resistance of Bitcoin dominance at 65% could well be the last bastion before a spectacular rebalancing in favor of altcoins.

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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.