经过漫长的沙漠过境，山寨币终于显示出觉醒的迹象

在过去的三年中，比特币的优势一直在不断增长，从39％上升到今天的65％。该级别代表了一种主要的技术抵抗，从历史上看，它已经系统地逆转了大量的市场逆转。

After a prolonged desert crossing, altcoins are finally displaying signs of awakening. In a remarkable display of resilience, Ethereum has surged by more than 32% in a single week, rekindling hope for a true "altseason." As Bitcoin dominance reaches 65% of the total market capitalization, many analysts are interpreting this milestone as a harbinger of an imminent shift in market favor.

在长时间的沙漠穿越之后，Altcoins终于显示出觉醒的迹象。在一个显着的弹性展示中，以太坊在一个星期内飙升了32％以上，重新激发了对真正的“ Altseason”的希望。随着比特币优势达到总市值的65％，许多分析师将这一里程碑解释为即将转变市场青睐的预兆。

Bitcoin Dominance at a Crucial Technical Resistance

比特币在至关重要的技术抵抗力下优势

比特币在至关重要的技术抵抗力下优势

Over the past three years, Bitcoin dominance has steadily grown, starting from 39% and reaching nearly 65% today. This level represents a major technical resistance which, historically, has systematically preceded significant market reversals.

在过去的三年中，比特币优势稳步增长，从39％开始，今天达到了近65％。该级别代表了一种主要的技术抵抗，从历史上看，它已经系统地逆转了大量的市场逆转。

At this threshold, a steeper decline in Bitcoin dominance is anticipated, paving the way for a swift recovery in altcoins.

在这个门槛上，预计比特币优势会更加急剧下降，为迅速恢复Altcoins铺平了道路。

This analysis is further supported by the identification of an ascending wedge pattern on the dominance chart, a chart pattern generally heralding a bearish reversal.

通过在主导图表上识别上升楔形模式进一步支持了这种分析，图表模式通常会预示看跌的逆转。

Integration of Macroeconomic Factors

宏观经济因素的整合

宏观经济因素的整合

This technical outlook is interwoven with recent macroeconomic developments.

这种技术前景与最近的宏观经济发展交织在一起。

The Chinese central bank has lowered its interest rates to a historic floor of 1.3%, and reduced the reserve requirements for commercial banks. These quantitative easing measures have injected substantial liquidity into global financial markets, leading to an appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar.

中国央行将其利率降低到历史悠久的地板1.3％，并降低了商业银行的储备要求。这些量化措施已向全球金融市场注入了大量的流动性，从而对元人民币兑美元汇率表示赞赏。

This monetary relationship directly influences cryptocurrencies.

这种货币关系直接影响加密货币。

When the yuan appreciates, the US dollar weakens, which signals a positive economic cycle and contributes to strength in the altcoin markets.

当人民币欣赏时，美元削弱了，这标志着积极的经济周期，并有助于替补市场的实力。

Expert Perspectives on the Coming Months

对未来几个月的专家观点

对未来几个月的专家观点

While some experts see this convergence of signals as the start of an explosive altseason, others remain more cautious.

尽管一些专家将这种信号的融合视为爆炸性的季后赛的开始，但其他人则更加谨慎。

Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, notes that "this cycle is different, because when BlackRock and Saylor buy Bitcoin, they merely hold it and do not trade it against altcoins."

阿波罗（Apollo）的联合创始人托马斯·法勒（Thomas Fahrer）指出：“这个周期是不同的，因为当贝莱德（Blackrock）和塞勒（Saylor）购买比特币时，他们只是持有它，而不会与Altcoins进行交易。”

This lack of arbitrage opportunities could hinder a rapid shift in favor of altcoins, despite the strong technical signals.

尽管技术信号强烈，但缺乏套利机会可能会阻碍替代币的迅速转变。

Nic, co-founder of Coinbase, offers a more nuanced perspective on the term "altcoin season." For him, several conditions need to be met for a true altcoin season to occur.

Coinbase的联合创始人Nic在“ Altcoin季节”一词中提供了更细微的观点。对他来说，真正需要满足真正的Altcoin季节。

Firstly, Bitcoin dominance should fall below 54%, a level at which the market begins to factor in a pessimistic scenario for Bitcoin and a corresponding bullish outlook for altcoins.

首先，比特币优势应降至54％以下，在这种水平上，市场开始考虑比特币的悲观情景以及对山寨币的相应看涨前景。

Secondly, the Fed needs to introduce official monetary easing measures, reducing interest rates and injecting liquidity into the markets.

其次，美联储需要引入官方的货币缓和措施，降低利率并将流动性注入市场。

Finally, Bitcoin should stabilize at all-time highs, facilitating the flow of capital into altcoins.

最后，比特币应在历史最高的高点上稳定，从而促进资本流入山寨币。

A Different Dynamic for 2025

2025年的不同动态

2025年的不同动态

The Kaiko Research report also suggests that 2025 might favor targeted investments in certain altcoins rather than a generalized rally.

Kaiko研究报告还表明，2025年可能有利于针对某些Altcoins的有针对性的投资，而不是广义的集会。

The first cryptos to benefit would likely be the established "dinosaurs," including Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, BNB, and Litecoin.

第一个受益的加密货币可能是既定的“恐龙”，包括以太坊，XRP，Cardano，Chainlink，BNB和Litecoin。

This convergence of technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain signals suggests that a major turning point is approaching for the crypto market. The historic resistance of Bitcoin dominance at 65% could well be the last bastion before a spectacular rebalancing in favor of altcoins.

技术，宏观经济和链链信号的这种融合表明，一个主要的转折点是加密市场。比特币优势占65％的历史性抵抗很可能是壮观的重新平衡以支持AltCoins的最后一个堡垒。

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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j'aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l'outil qui peut rendre cela possible.

对比特币充满热情，我喜欢探索区块链和加密货币的曲折，并与社区分享我的发现。我的梦想是生活在一个保证每个人的隐私和财务自由的世界中，我坚信比特币是可以实现这一目标的工具。