數據可見性在循環的代幣供應中的重要性

在快速發展的加密貨幣領域中，數據可見性經常被視為中心原理。然而，當它與最重要的指標之一有關

In the rapidly evolving realm of cryptocurrency, data visibility is frequently extolled as a central principle. However, when it pertains to one of the most vital indicators in tokenomics—the circulating supply—things are still not very clear.

在快速發展的加密貨幣領域中，數據可見性經常被視為中心原理。但是，當它與令牌學中最重要的指標之一（循環供應）有關時，這仍然不是很清楚。

Many traders and speculators rely on figures from sites such as CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, which they assume to be accurate accounts of how many tokens are currently in circulation. But the Honest Tokenomics team has some serious doubts.

許多交易者和投機者依靠來自Coingecko或CoinMarketCap等網站的數字，他們認為這是目前流通量中有多少代幣的準確說明。但是誠實的標記團隊有一些嚴重的疑問。

The space between perception and reality can have some big consequences for investment choices, token valuation, and project credibility. To give you an idea of the gravity of the situation, let’s unpack the difference between ‘unlocked supply’ and ‘circulating supply’; and to understand why this is especially critical right now, let’s look at a real-world example: $CONX.

感知與現實之間的空間可能會對投資選擇，代幣估值和項目信譽產生一些重大影響。為了讓您了解情況的嚴重性，讓我們解開“未鎖定供應”和“循環供應”之間的區別；為了了解為什麼現在特別關鍵，讓我們看一個現實世界中的示例：$ conx。

Understanding the Two Types of Supply

了解兩種類型的供應

This matter revolves around two distinct metrics of supply: unlocked supply and circulating supply. They might appear to be the same, but they narrate entirely different tales.

此事圍繞兩個不同的供應指標：解鎖的供應和循環供應。它們似乎是一樣的，但是他們講述了完全不同的故事。

Released supply refers to the number of tokens that have been issued according to the vesting schedule laid out in the project’s whitepaper. These tokens are liquid—they are no longer locked by smart contracts or other restrictions. However, just because tokens are released doesn’t mean they’re actively being traded or held by the public. This category often includes tokens allocated for foundation, team reserves, or marketing efforts, as well as staking rewards. While these tokens are “available,” they might still be held by insiders or entities with no immediate intention to sell.

發布的供應是指根據項目白皮書中規定的歸屬時間表發行的令牌數量。這些令牌是流動性的 - 它們不再被智能合約或其他限制所鎖定。但是，僅僅因為釋放令牌並不意味著它們會積極地被公眾交易或舉行。此類別通常包括分配給基金會，團隊儲備或營銷工作的代幣，以及積分獎勵。儘管這些令牌“可用”，但內部人員或沒有立即出售意圖的實體可能仍然持有它們。

On the other hand, circulating supply should be understood as the number of tokens actually in the hands of the market—tokens that are tradable and, ideally, in active use. But here’s the catch: Unlike real public companies, blockchain projects have no legal obligation to disclose anything to anyone. So Circulating supply figures are often self-reported by project teams to data aggregators like CoinGecko. This means the accuracy of this number depends largely on how diligent and transparent the teams are in maintaining their own data.

另一方面，應將循環供應理解為實際上市場上的代幣數量，即可交易且理想地在積極使用中的tokens。但這是捕獲：與真正的上市公司不同，區塊鏈項目沒有法律義務向任何人披露任何東西。因此，項目團隊經常向Coingecko等數據聚合器進行自我報告。這意味著該數字的準確性在很大程度上取決於團隊在維護自己的數據方面的勤奮和透明程度。

The $CONX Case Study: A Cautionary Tale

$ CONX案例研究：警示性故事

To show how this difference works out in real time, let’s consider $CONX, a token that has been heating up and has lately drawn attention for its supply data mismatch.

為了展示這種差異如何實時奏效，讓我們考慮一下$ conx，這是一個正在加熱並最近引起其供應數據不匹配的關注的令牌。

The project’s whitepaper and vesting documents indicate that more than 62 million $CONX tokens are currently unlocked. This should imply that a serious amount of liquidity actually exists, likely in team wallets, foundation reserves, or designated ecosystem funds.

該項目的白皮書和歸屬文件表明，目前已解鎖超過6200萬美元的Conx代幣。這應該意味著實際上存在大量的流動性，可能存在於團隊錢包，基金會儲備或指定的生態系統基金中。

What’s the real circulating supply of a token?

令牌的真正循環供應是什麼？

Nobody really knows, sometimes not even the team themselves.

沒有人真正知道，有時甚至不是團隊自己。

That’s why our team is laser-focused on revealing the supply truth.

這就是為什麼我們的團隊專注於揭示供應真相的原因。

If you've looked at $CONX lately, you might’ve seen two numbers:

如果您最近查看了$ CONX，您可能已經看到了兩個數字：

• Unlocked Supply•… pic.twitter.com/rxE9uwsMoq— Tokenomist (prev. TokenUnlocks) (@Tokenomist_ai) May 13, 2025

•解鎖供應•…pic.twitter.com/rxe9uwsmoq- tokenomist（prav。tokenunlocks）（@Tokenomist_Ai）（@Tokenomist_AI），2025年5月13日

However, if you examine the circulating supply figures on CoinGecko, they indicate only about 1.15 million tokens—a token that appears not to have budged in many months.

但是，如果您檢查了Coingecko上的循環供應數據，它們僅表示約115萬個令牌，這是一個在很多月內似乎都沒有發芽的令牌。

This glaring gap—over 60 million tokens—isn’t just a technicality. It has serious implications for anyone assessing the token’s market cap, liquidity, and risk profile. If an investor mistakenly thinks that only 1.15 million tokens exist in the market, they might make decisions based on a misguided understanding of the token’s market cap or price volatility. Whereas the truth is that tens of millions of tokens could become active any time now.

這個明顯的差距（超過6000萬個令牌）不僅僅是技術性。它對評估令牌市值，流動性和風險狀況的任何人都具有嚴重的影響。如果投資者錯誤地認為市場上只有115萬個令牌，他們可能會根據對代幣的市值或價格波動的誤導性做出決定。事實是，現在任何時候都可以在任何時候變得活躍。

It’s not to say the team behind $CONX is trying to mislead investors. Sometimes teams don’t update the circulating supply figures very often, and sometimes they take a more conservative approach and only count tokens that are actively distributed. But without the circulating supply number being up-to-date and accurate, market participants are left to guess and make decisions that are sometimes very ill-informed.

並不是說$ Conx背後的團隊試圖誤導投資者。有時，團隊不會經常更新流通的供應數字，有時他們採用更保守的方法，只計算積極分發的代幣。但是，如果沒有循環的供應編號是最新和準確的，那麼市場參與者就可以猜測並做出有時非常了解的決策​​。

Why Supply Transparency Matters

為什麼供應透明度很重要

Comprehending token supply is more than merely an academic exercise—it is a foundation of robust investment analyses. The supply side of unlocked tokens sheds further light on a project’s token dynamics. But it is by no means the sole or even the primary tool used to investigate such matters. Supply and demand, the twin pillars of all economic analysis, also underpin the way we think about unlocked tokens. And even though we use them in the context of the Investable Universe, they are economic tools of general applicability.

理解令牌供應不僅僅是一項學術練習，而是強大的投資分析的基礎。解鎖代幣的供應方面進一步闡明了項目的代幣動態。但這絕不是用於調查此類問題的鞋底甚至主要工具。供需，所有經濟分析的雙支柱，也以我們對解鎖令牌的思考方式支撐。即使我們在可投資宇宙的背景下使用它們，它們還是一般適用性的經濟工具。

The circulating supply that is reported can still be a very useful and helpful snapshot to have—especially when it is maintained and audited carefully. That said, it should never be taken at face value. The perception of the market can be distorted, as was the case with $CONX, by reported figures that

據報導的循環供應仍然是一個非常有用且有用的快照，尤其是在維護和仔細審核時。也就是說，它絕不應該以面值為單位。據報導，對市場的看法可能會像$ CONX一樣扭曲。