数据可见性在循环的代币供应中的重要性

在快速发展的加密货币领域中，数据可见性经常被视为中心原理。然而，当它与最重要的指标之一有关

In the rapidly evolving realm of cryptocurrency, data visibility is frequently extolled as a central principle. However, when it pertains to one of the most vital indicators in tokenomics—the circulating supply—things are still not very clear.

在快速发展的加密货币领域中，数据可见性经常被视为中心原理。但是，当它与令牌学中最重要的指标之一（循环供应）有关时，这仍然不是很清楚。

Many traders and speculators rely on figures from sites such as CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, which they assume to be accurate accounts of how many tokens are currently in circulation. But the Honest Tokenomics team has some serious doubts.

许多交易者和投机者依靠来自Coingecko或CoinMarketCap等网站的数字，他们认为这是目前流通量中有多少代币的准确说明。但是诚实的标记团队有一些严重的疑问。

The space between perception and reality can have some big consequences for investment choices, token valuation, and project credibility. To give you an idea of the gravity of the situation, let’s unpack the difference between ‘unlocked supply’ and ‘circulating supply’; and to understand why this is especially critical right now, let’s look at a real-world example: $CONX.

感知与现实之间的空间可能会对投资选择，代币估值和项目信誉产生一些重大影响。为了让您了解情况的严重性，让我们解开“未锁定供应”和“循环供应”之间的区别；为了了解为什么现在特别关键，让我们看一个现实世界中的示例：$ conx。

Understanding the Two Types of Supply

了解两种类型的供应

This matter revolves around two distinct metrics of supply: unlocked supply and circulating supply. They might appear to be the same, but they narrate entirely different tales.

此事围绕两个不同的供应指标：解锁的供应和循环供应。它们似乎是一样的，但是他们讲述了完全不同的故事。

Released supply refers to the number of tokens that have been issued according to the vesting schedule laid out in the project’s whitepaper. These tokens are liquid—they are no longer locked by smart contracts or other restrictions. However, just because tokens are released doesn’t mean they’re actively being traded or held by the public. This category often includes tokens allocated for foundation, team reserves, or marketing efforts, as well as staking rewards. While these tokens are “available,” they might still be held by insiders or entities with no immediate intention to sell.

发布的供应是指根据项目白皮书中规定的归属时间表发行的令牌数量。这些令牌是流动性的 - 它们不再被智能合约或其他限制所锁定。但是，仅仅因为释放令牌并不意味着它们会积极地被公众交易或举行。此类别通常包括分配给基金会，团队储备或营销工作的代币，以及积分奖励。尽管这些令牌“可用”，但内部人员或没有立即出售意图的实体可能仍然持有它们。

On the other hand, circulating supply should be understood as the number of tokens actually in the hands of the market—tokens that are tradable and, ideally, in active use. But here’s the catch: Unlike real public companies, blockchain projects have no legal obligation to disclose anything to anyone. So Circulating supply figures are often self-reported by project teams to data aggregators like CoinGecko. This means the accuracy of this number depends largely on how diligent and transparent the teams are in maintaining their own data.

另一方面，应将循环供应理解为实际上市场上的代币数量，即可交易且理想地在积极使用中的tokens。但这是捕获：与真正的上市公司不同，区块链项目没有法律义务向任何人披露任何东西。因此，项目团队经常向Coingecko等数据聚合器进行自我报告。这意味着该数字的准确性在很大程度上取决于团队在维护自己的数据方面的勤奋和透明程度。

The $CONX Case Study: A Cautionary Tale

$ CONX案例研究：警示性故事

To show how this difference works out in real time, let’s consider $CONX, a token that has been heating up and has lately drawn attention for its supply data mismatch.

为了展示这种差异如何实时奏效，让我们考虑一下$ conx，这是一个正在加热并最近引起其供应数据不匹配的关注的令牌。

The project’s whitepaper and vesting documents indicate that more than 62 million $CONX tokens are currently unlocked. This should imply that a serious amount of liquidity actually exists, likely in team wallets, foundation reserves, or designated ecosystem funds.

该项目的白皮书和归属文件表明，目前已解锁超过6200万美元的Conx代币。这应该意味着实际上存在大量的流动性，可能存在于团队钱包，基金会储备或指定的生态系统基金中。

What’s the real circulating supply of a token?

令牌的真正循环供应是什么？

Nobody really knows, sometimes not even the team themselves.

没有人真正知道，有时甚至不是团队自己。

That’s why our team is laser-focused on revealing the supply truth.

这就是为什么我们的团队专注于揭示供应真相的原因。

If you've looked at $CONX lately, you might’ve seen two numbers:

如果您最近查看了$ CONX，您可能已经看到了两个数字：

• Unlocked Supply•… pic.twitter.com/rxE9uwsMoq— Tokenomist (prev. TokenUnlocks) (@Tokenomist_ai) May 13, 2025

•解锁供应•…pic.twitter.com/rxe9uwsmoq- tokenomist（prav。tokenunlocks）（@Tokenomist_Ai）（@Tokenomist_AI），2025年5月13日

However, if you examine the circulating supply figures on CoinGecko, they indicate only about 1.15 million tokens—a token that appears not to have budged in many months.

但是，如果您检查了Coingecko上的循环供应数据，它们仅表示约115万个令牌，这是一个在很多月内似乎都没有发芽的令牌。

This glaring gap—over 60 million tokens—isn’t just a technicality. It has serious implications for anyone assessing the token’s market cap, liquidity, and risk profile. If an investor mistakenly thinks that only 1.15 million tokens exist in the market, they might make decisions based on a misguided understanding of the token’s market cap or price volatility. Whereas the truth is that tens of millions of tokens could become active any time now.

这个明显的差距（超过6000万个令牌）不仅仅是技术性。它对评估令牌市值，流动性和风险状况的任何人都具有严重的影响。如果投资者错误地认为市场上只有115万个令牌，他们可能会根据对代币的市值或价格波动的误导性做出决定。事实是，现在任何时候都可以在任何时候变得活跃。

It’s not to say the team behind $CONX is trying to mislead investors. Sometimes teams don’t update the circulating supply figures very often, and sometimes they take a more conservative approach and only count tokens that are actively distributed. But without the circulating supply number being up-to-date and accurate, market participants are left to guess and make decisions that are sometimes very ill-informed.

并不是说$ Conx背后的团队试图误导投资者。有时，团队不会经常更新流通的供应数字，有时他们采用更保守的方法，只计算积极分发的代币。但是，如果没有循环的供应编号是最新和准确的，那么市场参与者就可以猜测并做出有时非常了解的决策​​。

Why Supply Transparency Matters

为什么供应透明度很重要

Comprehending token supply is more than merely an academic exercise—it is a foundation of robust investment analyses. The supply side of unlocked tokens sheds further light on a project’s token dynamics. But it is by no means the sole or even the primary tool used to investigate such matters. Supply and demand, the twin pillars of all economic analysis, also underpin the way we think about unlocked tokens. And even though we use them in the context of the Investable Universe, they are economic tools of general applicability.

理解令牌供应不仅仅是一项学术练习，而是强大的投资分析的基础。解锁代币的供应方面进一步阐明了项目的代币动态。但这绝不是用于调查此类问题的鞋底甚至主要工具。供需，所有经济分析的双支柱，也以我们对解锁令牌的思考方式支撑。即使我们在可投资宇宙的背景下使用它们，它们还是一般适用性的经济工具。

The circulating supply that is reported can still be a very useful and helpful snapshot to have—especially when it is maintained and audited carefully. That said, it should never be taken at face value. The perception of the market can be distorted, as was the case with $CONX, by reported figures that

据报道的循环供应仍然是一个非常有用且有用的快照，尤其是在维护和仔细审核时。也就是说，它绝不应该以面值为单位。据报道，对市场的看法可能会像$ CONX一样扭曲。