丹·塔皮埃羅（Dan Tapiero

宏觀投資者兼基金經理丹·塔皮埃羅（Dan Tapiero）認為，如果美聯儲被迫降低利率，比特幣（BTC）將進行重大集會

Macro investor and fund manager Dan Tapiero believes Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a significant rally if the Federal Reserve is forced to slash interest rates in response to weakening U.S. economic conditions.

宏觀投資者兼基金經理丹·塔皮埃羅（Dan Tapiero）認為，如果美聯儲被迫削減利率削弱美國的經濟狀況，則對比特幣（BTC）進行了重大集會。

In a new post on social media platform X, Tapiero said the growing economic uncertainty tied to escalating tariffs is already creating a “growth-dampening impact” on both the U.S. and China.

塔皮埃羅（Tapiero）在社交媒體平台X上的新帖子中說，與關稅不斷升級有關的經濟不確定性日益嚴重，已經在對美國和中國都產生“增長阻尼的影響”。

According to Tapiero, this slowdown could pressure the Fed into initiating deep rate cuts—potentially as much as 250 basis points—a move he says would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin.

根據塔皮埃羅（Tapiero）的說法，這種放緩可能會給美聯儲（Fed）發起深度降低的速度（肯定要高達250個基點），他說這對比特幣將是極其看漲的。

“If the U.S. slows hard, could the Fed get to 1.4%—250bps from here? Imagine how high Bitcoin would go in that scenario. $200,000+,” Tapiero wrote.

“如果美國急速減慢，美聯儲可以從這裡獲得1.4％-250bps？想像一下，在這種情況下，比特幣會有多高。$ 200,000+，” Tapiero寫道。

China Already Leading the Way on Rate Cuts

中國已經領先於削減稅率

Tapiero’s prediction follows monetary easing steps already taken by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Earlier this week, the PBOC lowered its policy lending rate by 10 basis points, from 1.5% to 1.4%, and cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. That move is expected to inject roughly 1 trillion yuan (~$138.5 billion) into the Chinese financial system, increasing liquidity and encouraging lending.

Tapiero的預測是在中國人民銀行（PBOC）已採取的貨幣緩和步驟之後。本週早些時候，PBOC將其政策貸款利率降低了10個基點，從1.5％降低到1.4％，並將儲備金比率（RRR）降低50個基點。預計這一舉動將向中國金融體系注入大約1萬元人民幣（約1,385億美元），增加流動性並鼓勵貸款。

These efforts reflect the Chinese government’s attempt to counteract slowing growth, which Tapiero views as a potential model for U.S. policy should similar conditions take hold domestically.

這些努力反映了中國政府試圖抵消增長放緩的努力，塔皮埃羅認為這是美國政策的潛在模式，應該在國內佔據類似的條件。

Consumer Sentiment at Crisis-Era Levels

危機時代的消費者情緒

Tapiero has also highlighted troubling data on U.S. consumer expectations, noting that they’ve fallen to levels last seen during the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis. He argues that this data reinforces the likelihood of a policy pivot from the Fed and an eventual weakening of the U.S. dollar—both of which could act as fuel for a Bitcoin breakout.

Tapiero還強調了有關美國消費者期望的令人不安的數據，並指出它們已經跌至2008 - 2009年全球金融危機期間的最後水平。他認為，這些數據加強了聯邦政府的政策樞紐的可能性，最終削弱了美元的可能性，這兩種都可以充當比特幣突破的燃料。

“This is extreme data,” Tapiero wrote earlier this month. “Much lower rates and [a weaker] U.S. dollar [will be] needed to offset fiscal austerity. Fiat debasement equals +BTC.”

“這是極端數據，” Tapiero本月早些時候寫道。 “要抵消財政緊縮的費率要低得多，（較弱的）美元。

BTC Outlook Hinges on Policy Shifts

BTC Outlook取決於政策變化

Tapiero’s thesis fits a broader narrative among macro investors: Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and aggressive monetary easing. Should the Fed follow China’s lead in lowering rates and loosening liquidity, Tapiero believes Bitcoin could surge past $200,000, more than doubling from current levels.

塔皮埃羅（Tapiero）的論文符合宏觀投資者的更廣泛的敘述：比特幣是反對菲亞特（Fiat）貶低和侵略性貨幣寬鬆的對沖。如果美聯儲遵循中國在降低利率和放鬆流動性方面的領先優勢，塔皮埃羅（Tapiero）認為比特幣可能會超過200,000美元，而當前水平則增加了一倍以上。

With inflation, tariffs, and growth headwinds all converging, the coming quarters will determine whether Tapiero’s bold projection materializes.

隨著通貨膨脹，關稅和增長逆風的所有融合，未來幾個季度將決定塔皮埃羅的大膽投影是否實現。