Dan Tapiero Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $200K If Fed Slashes Rates

Macro investor and fund manager Dan Tapiero believes Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a significant rally if the Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates

Macro investor and fund manager Dan Tapiero believes Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a significant rally if the Federal Reserve is forced to slash interest rates in response to weakening U.S. economic conditions.

In a new post on social media platform X, Tapiero said the growing economic uncertainty tied to escalating tariffs is already creating a “growth-dampening impact” on both the U.S. and China.

According to Tapiero, this slowdown could pressure the Fed into initiating deep rate cuts—potentially as much as 250 basis points—a move he says would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin.

“If the U.S. slows hard, could the Fed get to 1.4%—250bps from here? Imagine how high Bitcoin would go in that scenario. $200,000+,” Tapiero wrote.

China Already Leading the Way on Rate Cuts

Tapiero’s prediction follows monetary easing steps already taken by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Earlier this week, the PBOC lowered its policy lending rate by 10 basis points, from 1.5% to 1.4%, and cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. That move is expected to inject roughly 1 trillion yuan (~$138.5 billion) into the Chinese financial system, increasing liquidity and encouraging lending.

These efforts reflect the Chinese government’s attempt to counteract slowing growth, which Tapiero views as a potential model for U.S. policy should similar conditions take hold domestically.

Consumer Sentiment at Crisis-Era Levels

Tapiero has also highlighted troubling data on U.S. consumer expectations, noting that they’ve fallen to levels last seen during the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis. He argues that this data reinforces the likelihood of a policy pivot from the Fed and an eventual weakening of the U.S. dollar—both of which could act as fuel for a Bitcoin breakout.

“This is extreme data,” Tapiero wrote earlier this month. “Much lower rates and [a weaker] U.S. dollar [will be] needed to offset fiscal austerity. Fiat debasement equals +BTC.”

BTC Outlook Hinges on Policy Shifts

Tapiero’s thesis fits a broader narrative among macro investors: Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and aggressive monetary easing. Should the Fed follow China’s lead in lowering rates and loosening liquidity, Tapiero believes Bitcoin could surge past $200,000, more than doubling from current levels.

With inflation, tariffs, and growth headwinds all converging, the coming quarters will determine whether Tapiero’s bold projection materializes.