丹·塔皮埃罗（Dan Tapiero

宏观投资者兼基金经理丹·塔皮埃罗（Dan Tapiero）认为，如果美联储被迫降低利率，比特币（BTC）将进行重大集会

Macro investor and fund manager Dan Tapiero believes Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a significant rally if the Federal Reserve is forced to slash interest rates in response to weakening U.S. economic conditions.

宏观投资者兼基金经理丹·塔皮埃罗（Dan Tapiero）认为，如果美联储被迫削减利率削弱美国的经济状况，则对比特币（BTC）进行了重大集会。

In a new post on social media platform X, Tapiero said the growing economic uncertainty tied to escalating tariffs is already creating a “growth-dampening impact” on both the U.S. and China.

塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）在社交媒体平台X上的新帖子中说，与关税不断升级有关的经济不确定性日益严重，已经在对美国和中国都产生“增长阻尼的影响”。

According to Tapiero, this slowdown could pressure the Fed into initiating deep rate cuts—potentially as much as 250 basis points—a move he says would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin.

根据塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）的说法，这种放缓可能会给美联储（Fed）发起深度降低的速度（肯定要高达250个基点），他说这对比特币将是极其看涨的。

“If the U.S. slows hard, could the Fed get to 1.4%—250bps from here? Imagine how high Bitcoin would go in that scenario. $200,000+,” Tapiero wrote.

“如果美国急速减慢，美联储可以从这里获得1.4％-250bps？想象一下，在这种情况下，比特币会有多高。$ 200,000+，” Tapiero写道。

China Already Leading the Way on Rate Cuts

中国已经领先于削减税率

Tapiero’s prediction follows monetary easing steps already taken by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Earlier this week, the PBOC lowered its policy lending rate by 10 basis points, from 1.5% to 1.4%, and cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. That move is expected to inject roughly 1 trillion yuan (~$138.5 billion) into the Chinese financial system, increasing liquidity and encouraging lending.

Tapiero的预测是在中国人民银行（PBOC）已采取的货币缓和步骤之后。本周早些时候，PBOC将其政策贷款利率降低了10个基点，从1.5％降低到1.4％，并将储备金比率（RRR）降低50个基点。预计这一举动将向中国金融体系注入大约1万元人民币（约1,385亿美元），增加流动性并鼓励贷款。

These efforts reflect the Chinese government’s attempt to counteract slowing growth, which Tapiero views as a potential model for U.S. policy should similar conditions take hold domestically.

这些努力反映了中国政府试图抵消增长放缓的努力，塔皮埃罗认为这是美国政策的潜在模式，应该在国内占据类似的条件。

Consumer Sentiment at Crisis-Era Levels

危机时代的消费者情绪

Tapiero has also highlighted troubling data on U.S. consumer expectations, noting that they’ve fallen to levels last seen during the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis. He argues that this data reinforces the likelihood of a policy pivot from the Fed and an eventual weakening of the U.S. dollar—both of which could act as fuel for a Bitcoin breakout.

Tapiero还强调了有关美国消费者期望的令人不安的数据，并指出它们已经跌至2008 - 2009年全球金融危机期间的最后水平。他认为，这些数据加强了联邦政府的政策枢纽的可能性，最终削弱了美元的可能性，这两种都可以充当比特币突破的燃料。

“This is extreme data,” Tapiero wrote earlier this month. “Much lower rates and [a weaker] U.S. dollar [will be] needed to offset fiscal austerity. Fiat debasement equals +BTC.”

“这是极端数据，” Tapiero本月早些时候写道。 “要抵消财政紧缩的费率要低得多，（较弱的）美元。

BTC Outlook Hinges on Policy Shifts

BTC Outlook取决于政策变化

Tapiero’s thesis fits a broader narrative among macro investors: Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and aggressive monetary easing. Should the Fed follow China’s lead in lowering rates and loosening liquidity, Tapiero believes Bitcoin could surge past $200,000, more than doubling from current levels.

塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）的论文符合宏观投资者的更广泛的叙述：比特币是反对菲亚特（Fiat）贬低和侵略性货币宽松的对冲。如果美联储遵循中国在降低利率和放松流动性方面的领先优势，塔皮埃罗（Tapiero）认为比特币可能会超过200,000美元，而当前水平则增加了一倍以上。

With inflation, tariffs, and growth headwinds all converging, the coming quarters will determine whether Tapiero’s bold projection materializes.

随着通货膨胀，关税和增长逆风的所有融合，未来几个季度将决定塔皮埃罗的大胆投影是否实现。