加密貨幣的大川普賭博

在拜登政府之後，該行業需要一位朋友。但本席勒表示，與川普上床會帶來許多風險。

CoinDesk’s managing editor of features and opinion unpacks crypto’s gamble on Trump and why the industry should be wary.

CoinDesk 的專題和觀點總編輯解析了加密貨幣對川普的賭博，以及為什麼該行業應該保持警惕。

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own.

這是一篇觀點文章。所表達的觀點是作者自己的觀點。

CoinDesk is an independently licensed news outlet that provides journalistic coverage of the cryptocurrency industry, without fear or favor. We adhere to the highest journalistic standards and follow strict editorial policies. CoinDesk journalists are not permitted to buy or sell cryptocurrencies.

CoinDesk 是一家獨立授​​權的新聞媒體，無憂無慮地提供加密貨幣產業的新聞報導。我們堅持最高的新聞標準並遵循嚴格的編輯政策。 CoinDesk 記者不得買賣加密貨幣。

This year, crypto finally got its pol and it’s Donald J. Trump.

今年，加密貨幣終於得到了政治上的支持，而他就是唐納德·J·川普(Donald J. Trump)。

For years, this industry has struggled to find a voice in politics, someone who can channel its liberation ideology and bring its ideas to a wide audience. Now that guy is Trump.

多年來，這個行業一直在努力尋找在政治上發出聲音的人，一個能夠傳達其解放意識形態並將其想法帶給廣大受眾的人。現在那個傢伙是川普。

He stands on a stage at the Bitcoin Conference, in Nashville, and says how much he likes crypto people. He announces a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. He promises to free Ross Ulbricht. He hands out burgers at PubKey, in NYC. He even forms his own DeFi project, World Liberty Financial, complete with an insider-y governance model (what better way to signal one’s fidelity to crypto than that?)

他站在納許維爾比特幣會議的講台上，表示他有多喜歡加密貨幣人士。他宣佈設立比特幣戰略儲備。他承諾釋放羅斯·烏布利希。他在紐約的 PubKey 分發漢堡。他甚至創建了自己的 DeFi 專案 World Liberty Financial，並採用內部治理模型（還有什麼比這更好的方式來表明一個人對加密貨幣的忠誠度？）

Trump says and does all the things crypto wants to hear and he attracts millions in donations as a result. The loudmouths go to bat for him, culture warriors in performative hatred. He occupies political space that the Biden Administration and the Harris campaign could have occupied if they weren’t so craven to the Warren Wing.

川普所說和所做的都是加密貨幣希望聽到的事情，因此他吸引了數百萬美元的捐款。大聲喧嘩的人為他辯護，在表演性的仇恨中培養戰士。如果拜登政府和哈里斯競選團隊對沃倫翼不是那麼膽怯，他佔據的政治空間本來可以佔據。

He says all the right things, because Trump is the master of saying what people want him to say. He fits perfectly with crypto’s goals, because his politics are adaptable to any situation and crypto was desperate for a friend.

他說的都是正確的話，因為川普是說出人們想讓他說的話的大師。他完全符合加密貨幣的目標，因為他的政治觀點可以適應任何情況，而加密貨幣迫切需要一個朋友。

I’ll confess that all this makes me personally uncomfortable, not because I have any great love for Kamala Harris, but because Trump has a long track record of being a fair-weather friend. He could just as easily take an entirely opposite view of crypto, if it suits him, and he has. I’m worried about crypto’s embrace of Trump because I find it hard to believe that Trump shares principles that attracted me to crypto.

我承認，這一切讓我個人感到不舒服，不是因為我非常喜歡卡馬拉·哈里斯，而是因為川普長期以來一直是個酒肉朋友。如果適合他的話，他也可以輕鬆地對加密貨幣持完全相反的看法，而他確實做到了。我擔心加密貨幣對川普的接受，因為我很難相信川普分享了吸引我進入加密貨幣的原則。

Here, then, are three reasons why we, as an industry, should be wary, IMO.

那麼，在我看來，以下是我們身為一個產業應該保持警覺的三個原因。

1) Trump May Not Follow Through on His Promises

1）川普可能不會兌現他的承諾

A host of White House officials from the first Trump presidency have spoken of his unprincipled nature. John Kelly, his former Chief of Staff, says he fits the definition of a fascist: someone willing to overturn Constitutional norms to meet his goals.

川普第一任總統的許多白宮官員都談到了他無原則的本性。他的前幕僚長約翰凱利說，他符合法西斯的定義：願意推翻憲法規範以實現其目標的人。

Here’s what a former Trump White House official said this morning:

以下是川普前白宮官員今天早上所說的話：

Seriously: Isn’t that something we should worry about? Isn’t it pretty strange to ally crypto’s cause of crypto with a person who, to put it mildly, is so unreliable? Isn’t it weird to join a personality cult when crypto is supposed to abhor single-points-of-failure.

說真的：這不是我們該擔心的事情嗎？將加密貨幣的事業與一個（溫和地說）如此不可靠的人聯繫在一起，這不是很奇怪嗎？當加密貨幣被認為厭惡單點故障時，加入個人崇拜不是很奇怪嗎？

Trump has to own the crypto issue in order to be crypto’s pol. Kamala Harris and team at times reached out to crypto in the last few months, showing they might play ball on the issue. The players in the Trump-Crypto dance this summer made it known that there was to be no dealing with Democrats. Why? Because Trump has to be the guy: he wasn’t going to share the issue with Democrats. It was like that in Nashville. Elon Musk was expected to speak with Trump at the Bitcoin Conference. But, according to one insider and CoinDesk’s tracking of Musk’s jet, he turned around when Trump wouldn’t share the stage. Trump needs to be the guy.

川普必須承認加密貨幣問題才能成為加密貨幣的政治領袖。卡馬拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）和團隊在過去幾個月中有時會接觸加密貨幣，表明他們可能會在這個問題上合作。今年夏天川普與加密貨幣之舞的參與者讓人們知道，不會與民主黨打交道。為什麼？因為川普必須是那個人：他不會與民主黨分享這個問題。納許維爾的情況就是這樣。伊隆馬斯克預計將在比特幣會議上與川普交談。但是，根據一位內部人士和 CoinDesk 對馬斯克飛機的追踪，當川普不肯上台時，他就會轉過身來。川普需要成為那個人。

To be sure, Dems gave up crypto all on their own. It started with mining, when, after the industry returned to the U.S., all the new plants went to red states. Democrats began outlawing bitcoin mining as environmentally hazardous while Texas and others embraced it as a part of their grid flexibility programs. Personally, I’m all in favor of mining being part of the electrical grid, and Democrats were stupid to outlaw mining and lose the industry.

可以肯定的是，民主黨完全靠自己的力量放棄了加密貨幣。它始於採礦業，當該行業返回美國後，所有新工廠都去了紅州。民主黨人開始將比特幣挖礦視為非法，因為它對環境有害，而德克薩斯州和其他州則將其視為其電網靈活性計劃的一部分。就我個人而言，我完全贊成將採礦業納入電網的一部分，民主黨人愚蠢地禁止採礦業並失去了這個行業。

But the interesting question is how Trump might react if the Democrats did start supporting crypto in earnest.

但有趣的問題是，如果民主黨真的開始認真支持加密貨幣，川普可能會如何反應。

2) Alienating People Outside the Party

2）疏遠黨外人士

In its search for power and relevance, crypto has allied itself with the Republican party. It often hasn’t said so publicly, but it has. The people running its campaign groups are Republicans. Its favored down-ballot candidates are largely Republicans. When groups like Stand With Crypto implore people to vote, you know they’re not talking about voting for Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

在尋求權力和相關性的過程中，加密貨幣與共和黨結盟。它通常不會公開這麼說，但確實如此。其競選團體的運作者是共和黨人。它青睞的下注候選人主要是共和黨人。當像 Stand With Crypto 這樣的團體懇求人們投票時，你知道他們並不是在談論投票給參議員伊麗莎白沃倫 (D-MA)。

These campaign groups aren’t always explicit in their preferences. But their allies are and the effect is often exclusionary. Here, for instance, is Ryan Selkis, once of Messari, discussing his feelings about liberal white women today.

這些活動團體並不總是明確表達自己的偏好。但他們的盟友是，而且效果往往是排他性的。例如，曾經是梅薩里人的瑞恩·塞爾基斯（Ryan Selkis）在這裡討論了他對當今自由派白人女性的感受。

It’s a free country and Selkis can say what he wants. He might even believe he’s being brave making such statements. But,

這是一個自由的國家，塞爾基斯可以暢所欲言。他甚至可能相信自己發表這樣的言論是勇敢的。但，