加密货币的大特朗普赌博

在拜登政府之后，该行业需要一位朋友。但本·席勒表示，与特朗普上床会带来很多风险。

CoinDesk’s managing editor of features and opinion unpacks crypto’s gamble on Trump and why the industry should be wary.

Coindesk的“功能和意见”的执行编辑打开了加密货币对特朗普的赌博以及为什么该行业应保持警惕的原因。

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own.

这是一篇观点文章。所表达的观点是作者自己的观点。

CoinDesk is an independently licensed news outlet that provides journalistic coverage of the cryptocurrency industry, without fear or favor. We adhere to the highest journalistic standards and follow strict editorial policies. CoinDesk journalists are not permitted to buy or sell cryptocurrencies.

CoinDesk 是一家独立授权的新闻媒体，无忧无虑地提供加密货币行业的新闻报道。我们坚持最高的新闻标准并遵循严格的编辑政策。 CoinDesk 记者不得买卖加密货币。

This year, crypto finally got its pol and it’s Donald J. Trump.

今年，加密货币终于得到了政治上的支持，而他就是唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)。

For years, this industry has struggled to find a voice in politics, someone who can channel its liberation ideology and bring its ideas to a wide audience. Now that guy is Trump.

多年来，这个行业一直在努力寻找在政治上发出声音的人，一个能够传达其解放意识形态并将其想法带给广大受众的人。现在那个人就是特朗普。

He stands on a stage at the Bitcoin Conference, in Nashville, and says how much he likes crypto people. He announces a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. He promises to free Ross Ulbricht. He hands out burgers at PubKey, in NYC. He even forms his own DeFi project, World Liberty Financial, complete with an insider-y governance model (what better way to signal one’s fidelity to crypto than that?)

他站在纳什维尔比特币会议的讲台上，表示他有多么喜欢加密货币人士。他宣布设立比特币战略储备。他承诺释放罗斯·乌布利希。他在纽约的 PubKey 分发汉堡。他甚至创建了自己的 DeFi 项目 World Liberty Financial，并采用内部治理模型（还有什么比这更好的方式来表明一个人对加密货币的忠诚度呢？）

Trump says and does all the things crypto wants to hear and he attracts millions in donations as a result. The loudmouths go to bat for him, culture warriors in performative hatred. He occupies political space that the Biden Administration and the Harris campaign could have occupied if they weren’t so craven to the Warren Wing.

特朗普所说和所做的都是加密货币希望听到的事情，因此他吸引了数百万美元的捐款。大声喧哗的人为他辩护，在表演性的仇恨中培养战士。如果拜登政府和哈里斯竞选团队对沃伦翼不是那么胆怯，他占据的政治空间本可以占据。

He says all the right things, because Trump is the master of saying what people want him to say. He fits perfectly with crypto’s goals, because his politics are adaptable to any situation and crypto was desperate for a friend.

他说的都是正确的话，因为特朗普是说出人们想让他说的话的大师。他非常适合加密的目标，因为他的政治适合任何情况，加密货币迫切希望成为朋友。

I’ll confess that all this makes me personally uncomfortable, not because I have any great love for Kamala Harris, but because Trump has a long track record of being a fair-weather friend. He could just as easily take an entirely opposite view of crypto, if it suits him, and he has. I’m worried about crypto’s embrace of Trump because I find it hard to believe that Trump shares principles that attracted me to crypto.

我承认，这一切让我个人感到不舒服，不是因为我非常喜欢卡马拉·哈里斯，而是因为特朗普长期以来一直是一个酒肉朋友。如果适合他的话，他也可以轻松地对加密货币持完全相反的看法，而他确实做到了。我担心加密货币对特朗普的接受，因为我很难相信特朗普分享了吸引我进入加密货币的原则。

Here, then, are three reasons why we, as an industry, should be wary, IMO.

那么，在我看来，以下是我们作为一个行业应该保持警惕的三个原因。

1) Trump May Not Follow Through on His Promises

1）特朗普可能不会兑现他的承诺

A host of White House officials from the first Trump presidency have spoken of his unprincipled nature. John Kelly, his former Chief of Staff, says he fits the definition of a fascist: someone willing to overturn Constitutional norms to meet his goals.

第一位特朗普总统职位的许多白宫官员都谈到了他的无非印象。他的前幕僚长约翰·凯利说，他符合法西斯的定义：愿意推翻宪法规范以实现其目标的人。

Here’s what a former Trump White House official said this morning:

以下是特朗普前白宫官员今天早上所说的话：

Seriously: Isn’t that something we should worry about? Isn’t it pretty strange to ally crypto’s cause of crypto with a person who, to put it mildly, is so unreliable? Isn’t it weird to join a personality cult when crypto is supposed to abhor single-points-of-failure.

认真：这不是我们应该担心的吗？对于盟友加密的原因而言，与一个温和的人是如此不可靠的人，这不是很奇怪吗？当加密货币应该谴责单点失败时，加入个性邪教并不奇怪。

Trump has to own the crypto issue in order to be crypto’s pol. Kamala Harris and team at times reached out to crypto in the last few months, showing they might play ball on the issue. The players in the Trump-Crypto dance this summer made it known that there was to be no dealing with Democrats. Why? Because Trump has to be the guy: he wasn’t going to share the issue with Democrats. It was like that in Nashville. Elon Musk was expected to speak with Trump at the Bitcoin Conference. But, according to one insider and CoinDesk’s tracking of Musk’s jet, he turned around when Trump wouldn’t share the stage. Trump needs to be the guy.

特朗普必须承认加密货币问题才能成为加密货币的政治领袖。卡马拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）和团队有时在过去几个月中与加密货币（Crypto）接触，表明他们可能会在这个问题上打球。今年夏天，特朗普 - 克里普托舞蹈中的球员们知道与民主党人没有打交道。为什么？因为特朗普必须是那个人：他不会与民主党分享这个问题。纳什维尔的情况就是这样。埃隆·马斯克预计将在比特币会议上与特朗普交谈。但是，据一位内部人士和科德斯克（Coindesk）对马斯克（Musk）喷气式飞机的追踪，当特朗普不分享舞台时，他转过身来。特朗普需要成为那个人。

To be sure, Dems gave up crypto all on their own. It started with mining, when, after the industry returned to the U.S., all the new plants went to red states. Democrats began outlawing bitcoin mining as environmentally hazardous while Texas and others embraced it as a part of their grid flexibility programs. Personally, I’m all in favor of mining being part of the electrical grid, and Democrats were stupid to outlaw mining and lose the industry.

可以肯定的是，民主党完全靠自己的力量放弃了加密货币。它始于采矿业，当该行业返回美国后，所有新工厂都去了红州。民主党人开始将比特币挖矿视为非法，因为它对环境有害，而德克萨斯州和其他州则将其视为其电网灵活性计划的一部分。就我个人而言，我完全赞成将采矿业纳入电网的一部分，民主党人愚蠢地禁止采矿业并失去了这个行业。

But the interesting question is how Trump might react if the Democrats did start supporting crypto in earnest.

但有趣的问题是，如果民主党真的开始认真支持加密货币，特朗普可能会作何反应。

2) Alienating People Outside the Party

2）疏远党外人士

In its search for power and relevance, crypto has allied itself with the Republican party. It often hasn’t said so publicly, but it has. The people running its campaign groups are Republicans. Its favored down-ballot candidates are largely Republicans. When groups like Stand With Crypto implore people to vote, you know they’re not talking about voting for Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

在寻求权力和相关性的过程中，加密货币与共和党结盟。它通常不会公开这么说，但确实如此。其竞选团体的运行者是共和党人。它青睐的下注候选人主要是共和党人。当像 Stand With Crypto 这样的团体恳求人们投票时，你知道他们并不是在谈论投票给参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦 (D-MA)。

These campaign groups aren’t always explicit in their preferences. But their allies are and the effect is often exclusionary. Here, for instance, is Ryan Selkis, once of Messari, discussing his feelings about liberal white women today.

这些活动团体并不总是明确表达自己的偏好。但他们的盟友是，而且其效果往往是排他性的。例如，曾经是梅萨里人的瑞恩·塞尔基斯(Ryan Selkis)在这里讨论了他对当今自由派白人女性的感受。

It’s a free country and Selkis can say what he wants. He might even believe he’s being brave making such statements. But,

这是一个自由的国家，塞尔基斯可以畅所欲言。他甚至可能相信自己发表这样的言论是勇敢的。但，