Consensus 24 會議上的每個人都在談論拜登的加密貨幣觸發器。他是真的嗎？

與會者對明顯的監管和立法變化持謹慎樂觀態度，但並非所有人都相信。

Attendees are cautiously optimistic about apparent regulatory and legislative changes, though not everyone is convinced.

與會者對明顯的監管和立法變化持謹慎樂觀態度，但並非所有人都相信。

AUSTIN, Texas – The biggest news this year at Consensus seems to be the political sea change happening in the Democratic party over crypto.

德州奧斯汀—今年共識大會上最大的新聞似乎是民主黨在加密貨幣問題上發生的政治巨變。

While President Biden’s administration essentially carried over the same reluctant-to-the-point-of-being-nearly-hostile approach to crypto as its predecessor, ever since the bottoming out of the industry in 2022 (the year from crypto hell) it has been actively hostile. The easiest way to sum up Biden’s “whole of government” attempt to wrangle in the crypto industry is with the catchphrase Operation Choke Point 2.0, coined by VC Nic Carter to describe the apparent debanking of many crypto firms.

儘管拜登總統的政府基本上延續了與其前任相同的對加密貨幣的不情願甚至近乎敵對的態度，但自 2022 年（加密貨幣地獄的一年）該行業觸底以來，它已經一直積極敵對。總結拜登“整個政府”試圖在加密行業爭論的最簡單方法是用流行語“Operation Choke Point 2.0”，這是由風險投資人 Nic Carter 創造的，用於描述許多加密公司明顯的去銀行化。

But in a matter of weeks, this has changed. Beginning with the bipartisan vote in the House and Senate to repeal the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) much-maligned accounting bulletin (SAB121) and extending to yesterday’s reveal that the Biden administration is reportedly doing outreach to crypto firms in a late-stage attempt to hear what they have to say about what good crypto policy would look like, it has become (nearly) believable that brighter days are ahead on the political, regulatory and legislative fronts for the domestic crypto industry.

但幾週後，情況就改變了。從眾議院和參議院兩黨投票廢除美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 飽受詬病的會計公告 (SAB121) 開始，一直到昨天披露的拜登政府據報道正在後期對加密貨幣公司進行外展嘗試聽聽他們對良好的加密政策是什麼樣的看法，可以相信，國內加密產業的政治、監管和立法的光明日子即將到來。

The feeling is in the air, probably because everyone appears to be voicing it out loud. For instance, yesterday on the Consensus stage, NYSE President Lynn Martin said that she doesn’t think that crypto will remain a “partisan” issue much longer. In the same way that stock and bonds are mostly apolitical, it doesn’t really make much sense to view crypto as inherently political (in fact, crypto may have a better case for actually being apolitical, given the technical design of protocols like Bitcoin).

空氣中瀰漫著這種感覺，可能是因為每個人似乎都在大聲表達這種感覺。例如，昨天在共識舞台上，紐約證券交易所總裁林恩馬丁表示，她認為加密貨幣作為「黨派」問題不會持續太久。就像股票和債券大多是非政治性的一樣，將加密貨幣視為本質上的政治性並沒有多大意義（事實上，考慮到比特幣等協議的技術設計，加密貨幣可能有更好的理由實際上是非政治性的） 。

However, not everyone is in alignment here. For instance, a big name crypto lawyer who works for a red hot DeFi startup, who asked not to be named given the sensitivity of his work, said he doesn’t think Biden’s apparent change of heart is genuine. “He’ll likely revert back to course, if reelected,” he said. Asked whether he felt any weight off his shoulders at all, or whether his job has or will get any easier, under seemingly improving regulatory conditions, he said “absolutely not.” Today is the same as yesterday.

然而，並非所有人都同意這一點。例如，一位在一家炙手可熱的 DeFi 新創公司工作的知名加密貨幣律師表示，鑑於其工作的敏感性，他要求不透露姓名，他表示，他認為拜登明顯的改變並不是真實的。 「如果再次當選，他可能會回到正軌，」他說。當被問及在看似改善的監管條件下，他是否感到肩上的擔子減輕了，或者他的工作是否已經或將會變得更加輕鬆時，他說「絕對沒有」。今天和昨天一樣。

Austin Campbell, a Columbia University business lecturer who is plugged into the D.C. circuit, echoed this idea when noting that the seemingly parallel change in Congress is not likely permanent. In fact, if you look at how the voting on the landmark Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) happened, it largely broke down on age lines. Though this in itself could be a positive, given that younger members of Congress are more likely to “get it,” and despite the fact that U.S. politics is a gerontocracy, the dinosaurs won’t rule the world forever.

哥倫比亞大學商業講師奧斯汀·坎貝爾（Austin Campbell）也認同這一觀點，他指出國會看似平行的變化不太可能是永久性的。事實上，如果你看看具有里程碑意義的《21 世紀金融創新和技術法案》(FIT21) 的投票是如何進行的，你會發現它很大程度上是按照年齡界限進行的。儘管這本身可能是一個積極的因素，但考慮到年輕的國會議員更有可能“明白這一點”，而且儘管美國政治是老年政治，但恐龍不會永遠統治世界。

This morning, Messari founder Ryan Selkis, who recently spoke with former President Trump at Mar-a-Lago Club, and Uniswap Labs chief lawyer Marvin Ammori, a longtime Democratic operative, actually debated the recent political machinations afoot on the Main Stage. Selkis’ main argument was that any easing up on crypto by the Democrats is largely a result of Trump capturing the “single issue” crypto vote, and that it should be treated as suspect. While Ammori argued that political changes don’t flip like a switch, and that things like SAB121 and FIT21 were the result of real bipartisan collaboration and successful crypto lobbying.

今天早上，最近在海湖莊園俱樂部與前總統川普交談的Messari 創始人瑞安·塞爾基斯(Ryan Selkis) 和長期擔任民主黨工作人員的Uniswap Labs 首席律師馬文·阿莫里(Marvin Ammori ) 實際上在主舞台上就最近正在進行的政治陰謀進行了辯論。塞爾基斯的主要論點是，民主黨對加密貨幣的任何放鬆很大程度上都是川普獲得「單一問題」加密貨幣投票的結果，並且應該將其視為可疑的。儘管 Ammori 認為政治變革不會像開關一樣翻轉，但 SAB121 和 FIT21 等事情是真正的兩黨合作和成功的加密貨幣遊說的結果。

“My point is, we don't necessarily want to be partisan, because that will be a setback in the long term,” Ammori said. In other words, crypto should be wary of aligning itself with any one party or any one candidate – especially considering that campaign promises are rarely kept. For his part, Selkis wanted to step out of wishful thinking (i.e., that Democrats could be suddenly supportive of crypto after so many years) and into the realm of realpolitik (i.e., that if the theory of bipartisan support were true, it’d be because Dems’ needs have shifted).

「我的觀點是，我們不一定想有黨派之爭，因為從長遠來看這將是一個挫折，」阿莫里說。換句話說，加密貨幣應該警惕與任何一方或任何候選人結盟——特別是考慮到競選承諾很少被兌現。就塞爾基斯而言，他希望擺脫一廂情願的想法（即，民主黨人可能在這麼多年後突然支持加密貨幣），進入現實政治領域（即，如果兩黨支持的理論是正確的，那麼它就會成為現實政治的一部分）。

“Democrats right now are like a cheating spouse; we caught them with their pants down,” Selkis said. “To reward this Democrat, mainstream party at this point in time is not only foolish, but I think it shows a profound lack of self-respect – they need to do penance.”

「現在的民主黨人就像一個出軌的配偶；我們抓住了他們，他們脫下了褲子，」塞爾基斯說。 “此時此刻，主流政黨獎勵這位民主黨人不僅是愚蠢的，而且我認為這表明他們嚴重缺乏自尊——他們需要懺悔。”

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