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對於新興的比特幣國庫公司來說,這個問題的答案也許是。
Is buying shares of a company that exists only to hoard Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) smarter than buying Bitcoin itself? To an emerging wave of Bitcoin treasury companies, the answer to that question is maybe.
購買僅購買比特幣本身的公司(Crypto:BTC)的股票是否智能?對於新興的比特幣國庫公司來說,這個問題的答案也許是。
Huge and consistent purchases of the coin by the leading business in the segment, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), are setting the example for others to follow, with its shares rising by 230% during the past 12 months, far above Bitcoin's return of 67%. That makes buying the treasury operators sound very appealing. But for investors, the picture is a bit more complicated, so let's dive in and evaluate whether these companies are smart investments or not.
領先業務在該細分市場(NASDAQ:MSTR)中對硬幣進行巨大而一致的購買,正在為其他人遵循的榜樣,在過去的12個月中其股票上漲了230%,遠高於比特幣的67%回報率。這使得購買財政運營商聽起來很吸引人。但是對於投資者而言,這張照片更加複雜,因此讓我們潛入並評估這些公司是否是聰明的投資。
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »
現在在哪裡投資1,000美元?我們的分析師團隊剛剛透露了他們認為現在要購買的10種最佳股票。繼續 ”
The advantages of this approach are undeniable
這種方法的優勢是不可否認的
First, let's clarify what Bitcoin treasury companies are and how they work so you'll understand them as a category.
首先,讓我們澄清比特幣國庫公司是什麼以及它們的工作方式,以便將其理解為類別。
In a nutshell, these businesses seek to issue debt and new shares of their stock to finance their purchases of Bitcoin, which they then retain. In Strategy's case, while it's nominally a software company, it has spent upward of $10 billion this year alone on buying Bitcoin as of May 8. Its total stockpile is worth more than $59 billion as a result of years of such purchasing, as well as the main pillar of the entire strategy, which is the price appreciation of Bitcoin over time.
簡而言之,這些企業試圖發行債務和股票的新股份,以資助購買比特幣,然後將其保留。在策略的情況下,雖然它是名義上的軟件公司,但僅今年5月8日,它就花費了超過100億美元購買比特幣。由於多年購買的數年以及整個策略的主要支柱,它的總庫存價值超過590億美元,這是對比特幣的價格欣賞。
It can easily continue to take out new loans, issue new debt, and mint more shares of its stock so long as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise. As the asset gains in value, the stock's price adjusts upward to match the company's overall higher value, which paves the way for issuing more shares and for the accumulated debt load to be overshadowed by the capital gains that could pay it off. For investors, buying the stock of such a company is thus very roughly equivalent to buying Bitcoin with leverage.
只要比特幣的價格繼續上漲,它很容易繼續獲得新的貸款,發行新的債務以及造幣廠的股票更多股份。隨著資產價值的增長,股票的價格會調整為與公司的總體價值相匹配,這為發行更多股票和累積的債務負擔鋪平了道路,這被可以償還的資本收益所掩蓋了。對於投資者而言,購買此類公司的股票非常大致相當於用槓桿購買比特幣。
And that's why Strategy's share price rose faster than the price of Bitcoin itself. The value of its Bitcoin holdings only account for 52% of its market cap.
這就是為什麼策略的股價上漲速度快於比特幣本身的價格。比特幣持有量的價值僅佔其市值的52%。
If you just buy and hold Bitcoin with cash, there's no leverage, so your return can never exceed that of the underlying asset. Likewise, you would have to manage your purchasing activity, rather than have specialists (the company's officers) handle it for you. Some emerging treasuries are also claiming to use tax advantages or "balance sheet engineering" to juice performance even further, though these claims lack proof as of yet.
如果您只用現金購買並持有比特幣,則沒有槓桿作用,因此您的退貨將永遠無法超過基礎資產的收益。同樣,您將必須管理您的購買活動,而不是為您提供專家(公司的官員)處理。一些新興的國庫也聲稱使用稅收優勢或“資產負債表工程”來進一步榨汁,儘管這些主張迄今仍缺乏證據。
So in theory there could be some value being added by Bitcoin treasury businesses beyond what's possible by buying the coin and holding it, either in your digital wallet or in your investment account via an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
因此,從理論上講,比特幣國庫企業可能會增加一些價值,超出購買硬幣並持有數字錢包或通過交易所交易貿易基金(ETF)中的投資帳戶中的可能性增加。
The disadvantages are also hard to argue with
缺點也很難爭論
The trouble with Bitcoin treasuries as investments is that they introduce a swath of risks that the underlying asset or ETFs holding it simply do not face.
比特幣國庫作為投資的麻煩在於,他們引入了一系列風險,持有它的基本資產或ETF根本不會面對。
The biggest catch is that using equity-based leverage magnifies losses when Bitcoin dips. Furthermore, when you hold your own coins, you cannot be forced into selling. When someone else holds coins as part of their business and you hold their stock, those coins that prop up the business's value can be sold without your consent for many different reasons that have nothing to do with the performance of Bitcoin. The less a company has going on outside of holding Bitcoin, the worse the impact to the share price will be.
最大的收穫是,基於股權的槓桿作用會在比特幣下降時放大損失。此外,當您拿著自己的硬幣時,就不能被迫銷售。當其他人將硬幣作為其業務的一部分而您持有股票時,在未經您同意的情況下,可以出售那些支撐業務價值的硬幣,這與比特幣的性能無關。公司在持有比特幣之外的情況越少,對股價的影響越高。
Another significant issue is that it is very unclear whether any Bitcoin treasury company has or can have a competitive advantage. Therefore it is difficult to even say which treasury business is worth investing in over others, as none have an economic moat with which to retain their share of investors' capital.
另一個重要的問題是,目前尚不清楚任何比特幣財政部公司是否具有或可以具有競爭優勢。因此,甚至很難說出哪些財政業務值得對他人進行投資,因為沒有一個經濟護城河可以保留其投資者資本的份額。
Finally, while there haven't been any major scandals as of yet, corporations are run by people, and people in leadership positions can sometimes fall from grace, harming the value of the businesses they lead. There is no such risk associated with buying Bitcoin directly or even with buying an ETF that holds it.
最後,儘管尚未有任何重大醜聞,但公司是由人經營的,領導職位的人們有時可能會脫離恩典,損害他們領導的企業的價值。直接購買比特幣,即使購買擁有它的ETF也沒有這種風險。
So, is it worth buying these Bitcoin treasury companies right now? Probably not. It's possible that some of the competitors will differentiate themselves for the better, but for now, the entire category is quite new, and their outperformance relative to Bitcoin could prove to be fragile.
那麼,現在值得購買這些比特幣國庫公司嗎?可能不是。某些競爭對手可能會使自己變得更好,但是目前,整個類別都是很新的,而相對於比特幣的表現超出表現可能是脆弱的。
Should you invest $1,000 in Bitcoin right now?
您現在應該在比特幣上投資1,000美元嗎?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
在您購買比特幣庫存之前,請考慮以下方式:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Motley Fool Stock Advisor分析師團隊剛剛確定了他們認為現在可以購買的10個最佳股票……而比特幣不是其中之一。裁員的10個股票可能會在未來幾年產生怪物回報。
Consider when Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) made this list on December 17, 2
考慮何時Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)在12月17日列出此列表
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