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对于新兴的比特币国库公司来说,这个问题的答案也许是。
Is buying shares of a company that exists only to hoard Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) smarter than buying Bitcoin itself? To an emerging wave of Bitcoin treasury companies, the answer to that question is maybe.
购买仅购买比特币本身的公司(Crypto:BTC)的股票是否智能?对于新兴的比特币国库公司来说,这个问题的答案也许是。
Huge and consistent purchases of the coin by the leading business in the segment, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), are setting the example for others to follow, with its shares rising by 230% during the past 12 months, far above Bitcoin's return of 67%. That makes buying the treasury operators sound very appealing. But for investors, the picture is a bit more complicated, so let's dive in and evaluate whether these companies are smart investments or not.
领先业务在该细分市场(NASDAQ:MSTR)中对硬币进行巨大而一致的购买,正在为其他人遵循的榜样,在过去的12个月中其股票上涨了230%,远高于比特币的67%回报率。这使得购买财政运营商听起来很吸引人。但是对于投资者而言,这张照片更加复杂,因此让我们潜入并评估这些公司是否是聪明的投资。
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »
现在在哪里投资1,000美元?我们的分析师团队刚刚透露了他们认为现在要购买的10种最佳股票。继续 ”
The advantages of this approach are undeniable
这种方法的优势是不可否认的
First, let's clarify what Bitcoin treasury companies are and how they work so you'll understand them as a category.
首先,让我们澄清比特币国库公司是什么以及它们的工作方式,以便将其理解为类别。
In a nutshell, these businesses seek to issue debt and new shares of their stock to finance their purchases of Bitcoin, which they then retain. In Strategy's case, while it's nominally a software company, it has spent upward of $10 billion this year alone on buying Bitcoin as of May 8. Its total stockpile is worth more than $59 billion as a result of years of such purchasing, as well as the main pillar of the entire strategy, which is the price appreciation of Bitcoin over time.
简而言之,这些企业试图发行债务和股票的新股份,以资助购买比特币,然后将其保留。在策略的情况下,虽然它是名义上的软件公司,但仅今年5月8日,它就花费了超过100亿美元购买比特币。由于多年购买的数年以及整个策略的主要支柱,它的总库存价值超过590亿美元,这是对比特币的价格欣赏。
It can easily continue to take out new loans, issue new debt, and mint more shares of its stock so long as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise. As the asset gains in value, the stock's price adjusts upward to match the company's overall higher value, which paves the way for issuing more shares and for the accumulated debt load to be overshadowed by the capital gains that could pay it off. For investors, buying the stock of such a company is thus very roughly equivalent to buying Bitcoin with leverage.
只要比特币的价格继续上涨,它很容易继续获得新的贷款,发行新的债务以及造币厂的股票更多股份。随着资产价值的增长,股票的价格会调整为与公司的总体价值相匹配,这为发行更多股票和累积的债务负担铺平了道路,这被可以偿还的资本收益所掩盖了。对于投资者而言,购买此类公司的股票非常大致相当于用杠杆购买比特币。
And that's why Strategy's share price rose faster than the price of Bitcoin itself. The value of its Bitcoin holdings only account for 52% of its market cap.
这就是为什么策略的股价上涨速度快于比特币本身的价格。比特币持有量的价值仅占其市值的52%。
If you just buy and hold Bitcoin with cash, there's no leverage, so your return can never exceed that of the underlying asset. Likewise, you would have to manage your purchasing activity, rather than have specialists (the company's officers) handle it for you. Some emerging treasuries are also claiming to use tax advantages or "balance sheet engineering" to juice performance even further, though these claims lack proof as of yet.
如果您只用现金购买并持有比特币,则没有杠杆作用,因此您的退货将永远无法超过基础资产的收益。同样,您将必须管理您的购买活动,而不是为您提供专家(公司的官员)处理。一些新兴的国库也声称使用税收优势或“资产负债表工程”来进一步榨汁,尽管这些主张迄今仍缺乏证据。
So in theory there could be some value being added by Bitcoin treasury businesses beyond what's possible by buying the coin and holding it, either in your digital wallet or in your investment account via an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
因此,从理论上讲,比特币国库企业可能会增加一些价值,超出购买硬币并持有数字钱包或通过交易所交易贸易基金(ETF)中的投资帐户中的可能性增加。
The disadvantages are also hard to argue with
缺点也很难争论
The trouble with Bitcoin treasuries as investments is that they introduce a swath of risks that the underlying asset or ETFs holding it simply do not face.
比特币国库作为投资的麻烦在于,他们引入了一系列风险,持有它的基本资产或ETF根本不会面对。
The biggest catch is that using equity-based leverage magnifies losses when Bitcoin dips. Furthermore, when you hold your own coins, you cannot be forced into selling. When someone else holds coins as part of their business and you hold their stock, those coins that prop up the business's value can be sold without your consent for many different reasons that have nothing to do with the performance of Bitcoin. The less a company has going on outside of holding Bitcoin, the worse the impact to the share price will be.
最大的收获是,基于股权的杠杆作用会在比特币下降时放大损失。此外,当您拿着自己的硬币时,就不能被迫销售。当其他人将硬币作为其业务的一部分而您持有股票时,在未经您同意的情况下,可以出售那些支撑业务价值的硬币,这与比特币的性能无关。公司在持有比特币之外的情况越少,对股价的影响越高。
Another significant issue is that it is very unclear whether any Bitcoin treasury company has or can have a competitive advantage. Therefore it is difficult to even say which treasury business is worth investing in over others, as none have an economic moat with which to retain their share of investors' capital.
另一个重要的问题是,目前尚不清楚任何比特币财政部公司是否具有或可以具有竞争优势。因此,甚至很难说出哪些财政业务值得对他人进行投资,因为没有一个经济护城河可以保留其投资者资本的份额。
Finally, while there haven't been any major scandals as of yet, corporations are run by people, and people in leadership positions can sometimes fall from grace, harming the value of the businesses they lead. There is no such risk associated with buying Bitcoin directly or even with buying an ETF that holds it.
最后,尽管尚未有任何重大丑闻,但公司是由人经营的,领导职位的人们有时可能会脱离恩典,损害他们领导的企业的价值。直接购买比特币,即使购买拥有它的ETF也没有这种风险。
So, is it worth buying these Bitcoin treasury companies right now? Probably not. It's possible that some of the competitors will differentiate themselves for the better, but for now, the entire category is quite new, and their outperformance relative to Bitcoin could prove to be fragile.
那么,现在值得购买这些比特币国库公司吗?可能不是。某些竞争对手可能会使自己变得更好,但是目前,整个类别都是很新的,而相对于比特币的表现超出表现可能是脆弱的。
Should you invest $1,000 in Bitcoin right now?
您现在应该在比特币上投资1,000美元吗?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
在您购买比特币库存之前,请考虑以下方式:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Motley Fool Stock Advisor分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在可以购买的10个最佳股票……而比特币不是其中之一。裁员的10个股票可能会在未来几年产生怪物回报。
Consider when Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) made this list on December 17, 2
考虑何时Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)在12月17日列出此列表
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