做好準備—比特幣 (BTC) 波動性預計將隨著美國大選而飆升

比特幣 (BTC) 本週攀升至接近 73,600 美元，在美國大選週之前小幅攀升至歷史新高，這主要得益於交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的強勁流入。

Bitcoin price approached $73,600 this week as it headed toward record highs ahead of the U.S. election week, largely driven by strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, QCP Capital’s latest weekend report showed.

QCP Capital 最新的周末報告顯示，比特幣價格本週逼近 73,600 美元，在美國大選週之前創下歷史新高，這主要是受到交易所交易基金 (ETF) 資金強勁流入的推動。

Brace Yourself—Bitcoin Volatility Set to Spike With U.S. Election

做好準備－比特幣波動性將隨著美國大選而飆升

In its weekend market analysis, QCP highlighted mixed signals from recent U.S. economic data. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—a key gauge for inflation—came in just above expectations at 2.7% year-over-year, higher than the 2.6% predicted.

QCP 在週末市場分析中強調了近期美國經濟數據發出的混合訊號。核心個人消費支出 (PCE) 指數（衡量通膨的關鍵指標）年增 2.7%，略高於預期，高於預期的 2.6%。

However, QCP analysts noted that the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report showed an unexpected decline, adding only 12,000 jobs compared to the 110,000 anticipated. Despite the surprising NFP numbers, the U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, leading to a surge in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November, now seen as having a 96.4% probability.

然而，QCP 分析師指出，非農業就業 (NFP) 報告顯示意外下降，僅增加 12,000 個就業崗位，而預期為 110,000 個。儘管非農業就業數據令人驚訝，但美國失業率仍穩定在4.1%，導致市場對聯準會11月降息的預期飆升，目前認為降息的可能性為96.4%。

The Fed is set to cut rates by a quarter point two days after the election. QCP analysts noted that despite these contrasting signals, U.S. equities ended Friday in the green, supported by strong earnings from Amazon.

聯準會將在大選兩天後降息四分之一個百分點。 QCP 分析師指出，儘管存在這些截然不同的訊號，但在亞馬遜強勁盈利的支撐下，美國股市週五收盤上漲。

Moreover, QCP showed how U.S. Treasury yields initially fell in response to the NFP report but quickly reversed, climbing to a four-month high.

此外，QCP 顯示美國公債殖利率最初因非農業就業報告而下跌，但很快就逆轉，攀升至四個月高點。

In commodities, oil prices edged up higher amid rising geopolitical tensions, with reports of a possible Iranian response to Israel. Bitcoin (BTC) continued its ascent, inching closer to its all-time high, while ether (ETH) remained relatively muted. QCP analysts attributed bitcoin's recent performance to strong ETF inflows, with over $2.1 billion flowing into bitcoin ETFs during the week.

大宗商品方面，由於地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，有報告指出伊朗可能對以色列做出反應，油價小幅走高。比特幣（BTC）繼續上漲，接近歷史高點，而以太幣（ETH）則相對平靜。 QCP 分析師將比特幣近期的表現歸因於 ETF 的強勁流入，本周有超過 21 億美元流入比特幣 ETF。

Blackrock's Ishares Bitcoin Trust saw a single-day inflow of $872 million, the largest since its launch this year. While BTC briefly dipped below $69,000 on Friday, QCP noted that interest remained, as open interest (OI) in BTC futures and options reached $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively—a 24.2% and 36.8% increase since early October.

貝萊德旗下的 Ishares 比特幣信託單日流入額達 8.72 億美元，為今年推出以來最大的單日流入量。儘管BTC 週五短暫跌破69,000 美元，但QCP 指出，人們的興趣依然存在，因為BTC 期貨和選擇權的未平倉合約(OI) 分別達到406.5 億美元和253 億美元，自10 月初以來增加了24.2 % 和36.8%。

Ahead of the U.S. election week, QCP's market strategists noted that bitcoin volatility is expected to spike.

在美國大選週之前，QCP 的市場策略師指出，比特幣波動性預計將飆升。

The options market currently prices BTC's seven-day implied volatility at 74.4%, a sharp increase compared to the realized volatility of 41.4% last week. This gap suggests a significant risk premium tied to the election's uncertain outcome.

期權市場目前將 BTC 的 7 天隱含波動率定價為 74.4%，與上週的實際波動率 41.4% 相比大幅上升。這一差距表明選舉結果的不確定性帶來了巨大的風險溢價。

QCP also noted that while Trump currently has a slight edge in betting markets, both candidates' standing have been shifting, indicating a possible “sell-the-news” response after the election, similar to past market trends.

QCP也指出，雖然川普目前在博彩市場上稍佔優勢，但兩位候選人的立場都在發生變化，這表明大選後可能會出現「拋售新聞」的反應，類似於過去的市場趨勢。