做好准备——比特币 (BTC) 波动性预计将随着美国大选而飙升

比特币 (BTC) 本周攀升至接近 73,600 美元，在美国大选周之前小幅攀升至历史新高，这主要得益于交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的强劲流入。

Bitcoin price approached $73,600 this week as it headed toward record highs ahead of the U.S. election week, largely driven by strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, QCP Capital’s latest weekend report showed.

QCP Capital 最新的周末报告显示，比特币价格本周逼近 73,600 美元，在美国大选周之前创下历史新高，这主要是受到交易所交易基金 (ETF) 资金强劲流入的推动。

Brace Yourself—Bitcoin Volatility Set to Spike With U.S. Election

做好准备——比特币波动性将随着美国大选而飙升

In its weekend market analysis, QCP highlighted mixed signals from recent U.S. economic data. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—a key gauge for inflation—came in just above expectations at 2.7% year-over-year, higher than the 2.6% predicted.

QCP 在周末市场分析中强调了近期美国经济数据发出的混合信号。核心个人消费支出 (PCE) 指数（衡量通胀的关键指标）同比增长 2.7%，略高于预期，高于预期的 2.6%。

However, QCP analysts noted that the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report showed an unexpected decline, adding only 12,000 jobs compared to the 110,000 anticipated. Despite the surprising NFP numbers, the U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, leading to a surge in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November, now seen as having a 96.4% probability.

然而，QCP 分析师指出，非农就业 (NFP) 报告显示意外下降，仅增加 12,000 个就业岗位，而预期为 110,000 个。尽管非农就业数据令人惊讶，但美国失业率仍稳定在4.1%，导致市场对美联储11月降息的预期飙升，目前认为降息的可能性为96.4%。

The Fed is set to cut rates by a quarter point two days after the election. QCP analysts noted that despite these contrasting signals, U.S. equities ended Friday in the green, supported by strong earnings from Amazon.

美联储将在大选两天后降息四分之一个百分点。 QCP 分析师指出，尽管存在这些截然不同的信号，但在亚马逊强劲盈利的支撑下，美国股市周五收盘上涨。

Moreover, QCP showed how U.S. Treasury yields initially fell in response to the NFP report but quickly reversed, climbing to a four-month high.

此外，QCP 显示美国国债收益率最初因非农就业报告而下跌，但很快逆转，攀升至四个月高点。

In commodities, oil prices edged up higher amid rising geopolitical tensions, with reports of a possible Iranian response to Israel. Bitcoin (BTC) continued its ascent, inching closer to its all-time high, while ether (ETH) remained relatively muted. QCP analysts attributed bitcoin's recent performance to strong ETF inflows, with over $2.1 billion flowing into bitcoin ETFs during the week.

大宗商品方面，由于地缘政治紧张局势加剧，油价小幅走高，有报道称伊朗可能对以色列做出反应。比特币（BTC）继续上涨，接近历史高点，而以太币（ETH）则相对平静。 QCP 分析师将比特币近期的表现归因于 ETF 的强劲流入，本周有超过 21 亿美元流入比特币 ETF。

Blackrock's Ishares Bitcoin Trust saw a single-day inflow of $872 million, the largest since its launch this year. While BTC briefly dipped below $69,000 on Friday, QCP noted that interest remained, as open interest (OI) in BTC futures and options reached $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively—a 24.2% and 36.8% increase since early October.

贝莱德旗下的 Ishares 比特币信托单日流入额达 8.72 亿美元，为今年推出以来的最大单日流入量。尽管 BTC 周五短暂跌破 69,000 美元，但 QCP 指出，人们的兴趣依然存在，因为 BTC 期货和期权的未平仓合约 (OI) 分别达到 406.5 亿美元和 253 亿美元，自 10 月初以来增加了 24.2% 和 36.8%。

Ahead of the U.S. election week, QCP's market strategists noted that bitcoin volatility is expected to spike.

在美国大选周之前，QCP 的市场策略师指出，比特币波动性预计将飙升。

The options market currently prices BTC's seven-day implied volatility at 74.4%, a sharp increase compared to the realized volatility of 41.4% last week. This gap suggests a significant risk premium tied to the election's uncertain outcome.

期权市场目前将 BTC 的 7 天隐含波动率定价为 74.4%，与上周的实际波动率 41.4% 相比大幅上升。这一差距表明选举结果的不确定性带来了巨大的风险溢价。

QCP also noted that while Trump currently has a slight edge in betting markets, both candidates' standing have been shifting, indicating a possible “sell-the-news” response after the election, similar to past market trends.

QCP还指出，虽然特朗普目前在博彩市场上稍占优势，但两位候选人的立场都在发生变化，这表明大选后可能会出现“抛售新闻”的反应，类似于过去的市场趋势。