比特幣鯨魚正在接管，這對每個人來說都是一個風險

(彭博社)－比特幣交易所交易基金在美國取得了巨大成功，目前持有超過 100 萬枚代幣

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been such a smashing success in the US that they now hold more than 1 million of the tokens, or about 5% of what currently exists. That’s in the same ballpark as the amounts that have long been frozen in the wallet of the market’s original whale: The cryptocurrency’s anonymous and enigmatic creator known as Satoshi Nakamoto.

(彭博）—比特幣交易所交易基金在美國取得了巨大的成功，目前它們持有超過 100 萬枚代幣，約佔現有總量的 5%。這與長期凍結在市場原始鯨魚錢包的金額大致相同：加密貨幣的匿名且神秘的創造者，即中本聰。

Another buyer of equal size potentially may arrive on the scene, as a Senate ally of Donald Trump’s pushes to pass a bill that would require the Federal Reserve to sell some of its gold in order to fund the purchase of 1 million Bitcoin for a US government stockpile. In the corporate world, Michael Saylor’s software company MicroStrategy is sitting on about $38 billion worth of the tokens and has been tapping capital markets to buy more.

另一個同等規模的買家可能會出現，唐納德·川普的參議院盟友正在推動一項法案，該法案要求美聯儲出售部分黃金，以便為美國政府購買 100 萬比特幣提供資金儲存。在企業界，Michael Saylor 的軟體公司 MicroStrategy 坐擁價值約 380 億美元的代幣，並一直利用資本市場購買更多代幣。

All of these developments were unthinkable in Bitcoin’s early days not so long ago, when each token traded for pennies and the only people interested in it were young Libertarian techies seeking to create a subversive financial system immune to the influence of the government, Wall Street intermediaries and other big corporations. Oh, how times have changed. Now these same establishment institutions are taking over larger and larger swathes of the available Bitcoin.

所有這些發展在不久前的比特幣早期都是不可想像的，當時每個代幣的交易價格都很便宜，唯一對此感興趣的人是年輕的自由主義技術人員，他們尋求創建一個不受政府、華爾街中介機構影響的顛覆性金融體系和其他大企業。噢，時代變了。現在，這些機構正在接管越來越多的可用比特幣。

And the potential creation of a US national stockpile of the cryptocurrency could trigger more governments to buy up Bitcoin, said Mark Connors, founder and chief investment strategist at Risk Dimensions. It all adds up to what’s known as concentration risk.

Risk Dimensions 創辦人兼首席投資策略師 Mark Connors 表示，美國可能建立加密貨幣國家儲備，可能會促使更多政府購買比特幣。所有這些加起來就構成了所謂的集中風險。

“Will this be a risk of being concentrated by existing G-10, G-20 countries or institutions like BlackRock?” Connors said. “This is a concern, especially for the purists.”

「這是否會帶來被現有的G-10、G-20國或貝萊德等機構集中的風險？”康納斯說。 “這是一個問題，尤其是對於純粹主義者來說。”

Yet you won’t hear much complaining, even among the purists. One reason is simply that the overwhelming demand keeps sending the price higher and higher — at least for now — and hope is rampant that it continues to do so.

然而，即使在純粹主義者中，你也不會聽到太多抱怨。原因之一很簡單，壓倒性的需求不斷推高價格——至少目前如此——人們普遍希望這種情況能持續下去。

Another reason is that, unlike the ownership of a company’s stock, the underlying programming of the Bitcoin blockchain prohibits even the biggest holders from exerting any control over the way it operates.

另一個原因是，與公司股票的所有權不同，比特幣區塊鏈的底層程式設計甚至禁止最大的持有者對其營運方式施加任何控制。

“The Bitcoin OGs no longer have control of the global crypto markets, even if they have made the highest profits,” said longtime crypto investor Michael Terpin. “Ownership of large amounts of Bitcoin is different from control of Bitcoin. Governments own a large portion of the world’s gold, but they don’t have control over its price or utility. The same will eventually be the case with Bitcoin.”

長期加密貨幣投資者 Michael Terpin 表示：“比特幣 OG 不再控制全球加密貨幣市場，即使他們獲得了最高的利潤。” 「擁有大量比特幣與控制比特幣不同。政府擁有世界上很大一部分黃金，但他們無法控制黃金的價格或效用。比特幣最終也會出現同樣的情況。

Still, with concentrated ownership of the cryptocurrency come risks for everyone involved with Bitcoin. Many of the Bitcoin ETFs’ individual owners aren’t so-called hodlers — determined not to sell Bitcoin through thick and thin. They may, instead, flee the market if and when the coin’s price crashes, and that could potentially exacerbate Bitcoin’s already highly volatile moves.

儘管如此，隨著加密貨幣所有權的集中化，每個參與比特幣的人都會面臨風險。許多比特幣 ETF 的個人所有者並不是所謂的持有者，他們決心不隨波逐流地出售比特幣。相反，如果比特幣價格暴跌，他們可能會逃離市場，這可能會加劇比特幣本已高度波動的趨勢。

The other potential new whale in the market is the US government itself, which is swinging from being one of the crypto industry’s biggest antagonists to one of its biggest cheerleaders as Trump prepares to return to the White House.

市場上另一個潛在的新鯨魚是美國政府本身，隨著川普準備重返白宮，美國政府正在從加密產業最大的對手之一轉變為最大的支持者之一。

A one-time crypto skeptic turned vocal promoter, Trump has promised to create a government stockpile, and it’s expected to be based on the more-than 200,000 Bitcoin that the government already holds following asset seizures. He has yet to endorse Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis’s bill to sell Fed gold certificates to buy 1 million Bitcoin to add to that stockpile, leaving many market observers on the edge of their seats for any hint that he will.

川普曾是加密貨幣懷疑論者，後來成為了直言不諱的推動者，他承諾建立政府儲備，預計該儲備將基於政府在資產扣押後已持有的超過 20 萬枚比特幣。他尚未支持懷俄明州參議員辛西婭·盧米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 出售美聯儲黃金憑證以購買 100 萬比特幣以增加儲備的法案，這讓許多市場觀察人士對他是否會支持的暗示感到緊張。

The tantalizing prospect of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve is already creating risk for investors chasing the token’s price higher and higher, as forecasts for it to reach $500,000 or even $1 million become more common.

美國戰略性比特幣儲備的誘人前景已經為追逐比特幣價格越來越高的投資者帶來了風險，因為對其達到 50 萬美元甚至 100 萬美元的預測變得越來越普遍。

On paper, the Fed has plenty of gold — about $690 billion worth at current market prices — to sell to purchase a proposed quantity of Bitcoin currently valued at almost $100 billion. Yet the numbers are bound to change dramatically should the Lummis bill start gaining support from Trump and Congress: Expected large sales of gold by the government would likely cause the precious metal’s price to drop, while telegraphed plans to buy large amounts of Bitcoin would likely cause its price to surge.

從表面上看，聯準會擁有大量黃金（以當前市場價格計算，價值約 6,900 億美元）可以出售，以購買目前價值近 1,000 億美元的比特幣。然而，如果魯米斯法案開始獲得川普和國會的支持，數字勢必會發生巨大變化：預計政府大量出售黃金可能會導致貴金屬價格下跌，而購買大量比特幣的電報計劃可能會導致貴金屬價格下跌。

However, there is no guarantee that Trump will succeed in creating the stockpile, let alone that there’s enough support in Congress to pass a bill to sell a precious metal that’s been an accepted store of wealth for millennia in order to buy a 15-year-old form of Internet money famous for its boom-and-bust price swings and reputation as the currency of choice for scam artists. Trading on the crypto-based predictions platform Polymarket implies only about a 28% chance a Bitcoin reserve is created in Trump’s first 100 days.

然而，並不能保證川普會成功建立庫存，更不用說國會有足夠的支持來通過一項法案，出售一種貴金屬，這種貴金屬幾千年來一直被認為是一種財富儲存手段，以便購買15 年期債券。在基於加密貨幣的預測平台 Polymarket 上進行交易意味著，在川普上任的前 100 天內創建比特幣儲備的可能性只有 28% 左右。

And should the reserve actually be created and further purchases funded, the risks may only

如果實際建立儲備並為進一步購買提供資金，風險可能只會