比特币鲸鱼正在接管，这对每个人来说都是一个风险

(彭博社)——比特币交易所交易基金在美国取得了巨大成功，目前持有超过 100 万枚代币

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been such a smashing success in the US that they now hold more than 1 million of the tokens, or about 5% of what currently exists. That’s in the same ballpark as the amounts that have long been frozen in the wallet of the market’s original whale: The cryptocurrency’s anonymous and enigmatic creator known as Satoshi Nakamoto.

(彭博社)——比特币交易所交易基金在美国取得了巨大的成功，目前它们持有超过 100 万枚代币，约占现有总量的 5%。这与长期冻结在市场原始鲸鱼钱包中的金额大致相同：加密货币的匿名且神秘的创造者，即中本聪。

Another buyer of equal size potentially may arrive on the scene, as a Senate ally of Donald Trump’s pushes to pass a bill that would require the Federal Reserve to sell some of its gold in order to fund the purchase of 1 million Bitcoin for a US government stockpile. In the corporate world, Michael Saylor’s software company MicroStrategy is sitting on about $38 billion worth of the tokens and has been tapping capital markets to buy more.

另一个同等规模的买家可能会出现，唐纳德·特朗普的参议院盟友正在推动一项法案，该法案要求美联储出售部分黄金，以便为美国政府购买 100 万比特币提供资金储存。在企业界，Michael Saylor 的软件公司 MicroStrategy 坐拥价值约 380 亿美元的代币，并一直在利用资本市场购买更多代币。

All of these developments were unthinkable in Bitcoin’s early days not so long ago, when each token traded for pennies and the only people interested in it were young Libertarian techies seeking to create a subversive financial system immune to the influence of the government, Wall Street intermediaries and other big corporations. Oh, how times have changed. Now these same establishment institutions are taking over larger and larger swathes of the available Bitcoin.

所有这些发展在不久前的比特币早期都是不可想象的，当时每个代币的交易价格都很便宜，唯一对此感兴趣的人是年轻的自由主义技术人员，他们寻求创建一个不受政府、华尔街中介机构影响的颠覆性金融体系和其他大公司。噢，时代变了。现在，这些机构正在接管越来越多的可用比特币。

And the potential creation of a US national stockpile of the cryptocurrency could trigger more governments to buy up Bitcoin, said Mark Connors, founder and chief investment strategist at Risk Dimensions. It all adds up to what’s known as concentration risk.

Risk Dimensions 创始人兼首席投资策略师马克·康纳斯 (Mark Connors) 表示，美国可能建立加密货币国家储备，可能会促使更多政府购买比特币。所有这些加起来就构成了所谓的集中风险。

“Will this be a risk of being concentrated by existing G-10, G-20 countries or institutions like BlackRock?” Connors said. “This is a concern, especially for the purists.”

“这是否会带来被现有的G-10、G-20国家或贝莱德等机构集中的风险？”康纳斯说道。 “这是一个问题，尤其是对于纯粹主义者来说。”

Yet you won’t hear much complaining, even among the purists. One reason is simply that the overwhelming demand keeps sending the price higher and higher — at least for now — and hope is rampant that it continues to do so.

然而，即使在纯粹主义者中，你也不会听到太多抱怨。原因之一很简单，压倒性的需求不断推高价格——至少目前如此——人们普遍希望这种情况能继续下去。

Another reason is that, unlike the ownership of a company’s stock, the underlying programming of the Bitcoin blockchain prohibits even the biggest holders from exerting any control over the way it operates.

另一个原因是，与公司股票的所有权不同，比特币区块链的底层编程甚至禁止最大的持有者对其运营方式施加任何控制。

“The Bitcoin OGs no longer have control of the global crypto markets, even if they have made the highest profits,” said longtime crypto investor Michael Terpin. “Ownership of large amounts of Bitcoin is different from control of Bitcoin. Governments own a large portion of the world’s gold, but they don’t have control over its price or utility. The same will eventually be the case with Bitcoin.”

长期加密货币投资者 Michael Terpin 表示：“比特币 OG 不再控制全球加密货币市场，即使他们获得了最高的利润。” “拥有大量比特币与控制比特币不同。政府拥有世界上很大一部分黄金，但他们无法控制黄金的价格或效用。比特币最终也会出现同样的情况。”

Still, with concentrated ownership of the cryptocurrency come risks for everyone involved with Bitcoin. Many of the Bitcoin ETFs’ individual owners aren’t so-called hodlers — determined not to sell Bitcoin through thick and thin. They may, instead, flee the market if and when the coin’s price crashes, and that could potentially exacerbate Bitcoin’s already highly volatile moves.

尽管如此，随着加密货币所有权的集中化，每个参与比特币的人都会面临风险。许多比特币 ETF 的个人所有者并不是所谓的持有者，他们决心不随波逐流地出售比特币。相反，如果比特币价格暴跌，他们可能会逃离市场，这可能会加剧比特币本已高度波动的走势。

The other potential new whale in the market is the US government itself, which is swinging from being one of the crypto industry’s biggest antagonists to one of its biggest cheerleaders as Trump prepares to return to the White House.

市场上另一个潜在的新鲸鱼是美国政府本身，随着特朗普准备重返白宫，美国政府正在从加密行业最大的对手之一转变为最大的支持者之一。

A one-time crypto skeptic turned vocal promoter, Trump has promised to create a government stockpile, and it’s expected to be based on the more-than 200,000 Bitcoin that the government already holds following asset seizures. He has yet to endorse Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis’s bill to sell Fed gold certificates to buy 1 million Bitcoin to add to that stockpile, leaving many market observers on the edge of their seats for any hint that he will.

特朗普曾是一位加密货币怀疑论者，后来成为了直言不讳的推动者，他承诺建立政府储备，预计该储备将基于政府在资产扣押后已持有的超过 20 万枚比特币。他尚未支持怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 出售美联储黄金凭证以购买 100 万比特币以增加储备的法案，这让许多市场观察人士对他是否会支持的暗示感到紧张。

The tantalizing prospect of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve is already creating risk for investors chasing the token’s price higher and higher, as forecasts for it to reach $500,000 or even $1 million become more common.

美国战略性比特币储备的诱人前景已经给追逐比特币价格越来越高的投资者带来了风险，因为对其达到 50 万美元甚至 100 万美元的预测变得越来越普遍。

On paper, the Fed has plenty of gold — about $690 billion worth at current market prices — to sell to purchase a proposed quantity of Bitcoin currently valued at almost $100 billion. Yet the numbers are bound to change dramatically should the Lummis bill start gaining support from Trump and Congress: Expected large sales of gold by the government would likely cause the precious metal’s price to drop, while telegraphed plans to buy large amounts of Bitcoin would likely cause its price to surge.

从表面上看，美联储拥有大量黄金（按当前市场价格计算，价值约 6900 亿美元）可以出售，以购买目前价值近 1000 亿美元的比特币。然而，如果鲁米斯法案开始获得特朗普和国会的支持，数字势必会发生巨大变化：预计政府大量出售黄金可能会导致贵金属价格下跌，而购买大量比特币的电报计划可能会导致贵金属价格下跌。其价格飙升。

However, there is no guarantee that Trump will succeed in creating the stockpile, let alone that there’s enough support in Congress to pass a bill to sell a precious metal that’s been an accepted store of wealth for millennia in order to buy a 15-year-old form of Internet money famous for its boom-and-bust price swings and reputation as the currency of choice for scam artists. Trading on the crypto-based predictions platform Polymarket implies only about a 28% chance a Bitcoin reserve is created in Trump’s first 100 days.

然而，并不能保证特朗普会成功建立库存，更不用说国会有足够的支持来通过一项法案，出售一种贵金属，这种贵金属几千年来一直被认为是一种财富储存手段，以便购买 15 年期债券。旧形式的互联网货币以其繁荣和萧条的价格波动而闻名，并且被誉为诈骗者的首选货币。在基于加密货币的预测平台 Polymarket 上进行交易意味着，在特朗普上任的前 100 天内创建比特币储备的可能性只有 28% 左右。

And should the reserve actually be created and further purchases funded, the risks may only

如果实际建立储备并为进一步购买提供资金，风险可能只会