比特幣驗證了看漲情景

在最新的分析中，Ark Invest 的加密專家 Julian Falcioni、David Puell 和 Dan White 對比特幣市場進行了回顧

Ark Invest crypto specialists Julian Falcioni, David Puell, and Dan White offer an overview of Bitcoin price action and prospects in their latest analysis, highlighting the interplay of economic, technical, and policy-related factors that could shape the future of the pioneering digital currency.

Ark Invest 加密貨幣專家 Julian Falcioni、David Puell 和 Dan White 在最新分析中概述了比特幣價格走勢和前景，強調了可能塑造這一先鋒數字貨幣未來的經濟、技術和政策相關因素的相互作用。

Bitcoin Invalidates Bearish Scenario

比特幣使看跌情景失效

Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of over -25% from early June. More notably, BTC fell below its 200-day moving average on July 7 — a key technical level. According to Ark, the drop below the 200-day moving average was “a crucial bearish signal that often precedes further declines unless a strong recovery ensues.” However, Bitcoin showed remarkable strength in the last few days, and as Ark predicted, BTC staged a quick recovery above the 200-day EMA, invalidating the bearish outlook.

自 6 月初以來，比特幣經歷了超過 -25% 的大幅下跌。更值得注意的是，BTC 在 7 月 7 日跌破了 200 日移動均線——一個關鍵技術水平。 Ark 表示，跌破 200 日移動均線是「一個重要的看跌訊號，除非出現強勁復甦，否則通常會出現進一步下跌之前的訊號」。然而，比特幣在過去幾天表現出了驚人的強勢，正如 Ark 預測的那樣，比特幣在 200 日均線上方快速反彈，使看跌前景失效。

An interesting element in Bitcoin’s volatility during June was the German government’s aggressive sale of nearly 50,000 Bitcoins. These assets were seized from the illegal streaming site Movie2K and began being transferred to various exchanges for sale on June 19. “The influx of a large volume of bitcoins during a traditionally low liquidity period, around the July 4th holiday, significantly pressured the price downward,” the report noted. Notably, this selling is now complete.

6 月比特幣波動的一個有趣因素是德國政府大舉出售近 5 萬個比特幣。這些資產是從非法串流媒體網站Movie2K 中查獲的，並於6 月19 日開始轉移到各個交易所出售。進入，極大地壓低了價格”，報告指出。值得注意的是，此次出售現已完成。

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin managed to rally by over 17% in the last few days. Several indicators supported this reversal, according to Ark. The discrepancy between the decline in Bitcoin’s price and the lesser drop in US ETF holdings — 17.3% — suggested that Bitcoin was oversold. “This overselling is likely driven by external shocks rather than intrinsic market movements, pointing towards a mispricing that could correct in the medium term,” the specialists explained.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，比特幣在過去幾天還是成功上漲了 17% 以上。 Ark 表示，多項指標支持了這一逆轉。專家解釋說：“這種超賣可能是由外部衝擊而非內在市場走勢驅動的，這表明定價錯誤可能會在中期得到糾正。”

Furthermore, short-term holders, typically a more speculative segment, realized losses as indicated by the sell-side risk ratio. This ratio, calculated by dividing the sum of short-term holder profits and losses realized on-chain by their cost bases, showed more losses than profits, which usually precedes a short-term market correction.

此外，短期持有者（通常是投機性較強的群體）實現了損失，如賣方風險比率所示。該比率是透過將鏈上實現的短期持有者利潤和損失總和除以其成本基礎計算得出的，顯示損失多於利潤，這通常發生在短期市場調整之前。

June also saw significant activity from Bitcoin miners. “Miner outflows, which often prelude market adjustments, mirrored patterns observed around previous Bitcoin halving events, when the reward for mining a block is halved,” said Ark. Such events historically lead to a decreased supply and potential price increases as market dynamics adjust to the new supply level.

六月比特幣礦工也出現了重大活動。 Ark 表示：「礦工外流通常是市場調整的先兆，這反映了先前比特幣減半事件中觀察到的模式，即開採一個區塊的獎勵減半。」從歷史上看，隨著市場動態調整，此類事件會導致供應減少和潛在價格上漲。

On the macroeconomic front, the report noted that US economic data had consistently underperformed expectations, with the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index registering the most significant negative deviations in a decade. Despite this, the Federal Reserve maintained a surprisingly hawkish tone, which could influence investor sentiment and financial market stability.

宏觀經濟方面，報告指出，美國經濟數據持續不如預期，彭博美國經濟驚喜指數出現十年來最嚴重負偏差。儘管如此，聯準會仍保持出人意料的強硬基調，這可能會影響投資者情緒和金融市場穩定。

Corporate America also faced these challenges, with profit margins, which peaked in 2021, now declining as companies lose pricing power, Ark noted. This squeeze on profits is leading to price cuts across various sectors, further dampening the economic outlook.

阿克指出，美國企業界也面臨這些挑戰，利潤率在 2021 年達到頂峰，現在隨著企業失去定價權而下降。利潤的擠壓導致各行業的價格下調，進一步削弱了經濟前景。

In the equity markets, there has been a notable increase in market capitalization concentration, reaching levels not seen since the Great Depression. “This concentration in larger entities with significant cash reserves could be an early indicator of a shifting economic landscape, which historically sees a breakout in favor of smaller cap stocks,” the report stated.

在股票市場，市值集中度顯著上升，達到大蕭條以來的最高水準。報告稱：“這種對擁有大量現金儲備的大型實體的集中可能是經濟格局發生變化的早期指標，從歷史上看，經濟格局的突破有利於小盤股。”

At press time, BTC traded at $63,131.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 63,131 美元。