比特币验证了看涨情景

在最新的分析中，Ark Invest 的加密专家 Julian Falcioni、David Puell 和 Dan White 对比特币市场进行了回顾

Ark Invest crypto specialists Julian Falcioni, David Puell, and Dan White offer an overview of Bitcoin price action and prospects in their latest analysis, highlighting the interplay of economic, technical, and policy-related factors that could shape the future of the pioneering digital currency.

Ark Invest 加密货币专家 Julian Falcioni、David Puell 和 Dan White 在最新分析中概述了比特币价格走势和前景，强调了可能塑造这一先锋数字货币未来的经济、技术和政策相关因素的相互作用。 。

Bitcoin Invalidates Bearish Scenario

比特币使看跌情景失效

Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of over -25% from early June. More notably, BTC fell below its 200-day moving average on July 7 — a key technical level. According to Ark, the drop below the 200-day moving average was “a crucial bearish signal that often precedes further declines unless a strong recovery ensues.” However, Bitcoin showed remarkable strength in the last few days, and as Ark predicted, BTC staged a quick recovery above the 200-day EMA, invalidating the bearish outlook.

自 6 月初以来，比特币经历了超过 -25% 的大幅下跌。更值得注意的是，BTC 在 7 月 7 日跌破了 200 日移动均线——一个关键技术水平。 Ark 表示，跌破 200 日移动均线是“一个重要的看跌信号，除非出现强劲复苏，否则通常会出现进一步下跌之前的信号”。然而，比特币在过去几天表现出了惊人的强势，正如 Ark 预测的那样，比特币在 200 日均线上方快速反弹，使看跌前景失效。

An interesting element in Bitcoin’s volatility during June was the German government’s aggressive sale of nearly 50,000 Bitcoins. These assets were seized from the illegal streaming site Movie2K and began being transferred to various exchanges for sale on June 19. “The influx of a large volume of bitcoins during a traditionally low liquidity period, around the July 4th holiday, significantly pressured the price downward,” the report noted. Notably, this selling is now complete.

6 月份比特币波动的一个有趣因素是德国政府大举出售近 50,000 个比特币。这些资产是从非法流媒体网站 Movie2K 中查获的，并于 6 月 19 日开始转移到各个交易所出售。“在传统的流动性较低的时期，即 7 月 4 日假期前后，大量比特币涌入，极大地压低了价格”，报告指出。值得注意的是，此次出售现已完成。

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin managed to rally by over 17% in the last few days. Several indicators supported this reversal, according to Ark. The discrepancy between the decline in Bitcoin’s price and the lesser drop in US ETF holdings — 17.3% — suggested that Bitcoin was oversold. “This overselling is likely driven by external shocks rather than intrinsic market movements, pointing towards a mispricing that could correct in the medium term,” the specialists explained.

尽管面临这些挑战，比特币在过去几天还是成功上涨了 17% 以上。 Ark 表示，多项指标支持了这一逆转。比特币价格下跌与美国 ETF 持有量较小跌幅（17.3%）之间的差异表明比特币已超卖。专家解释说：“这种超卖可能是由外部冲击而非内在市场走势驱动的，这表明定价错误可能会在中期得到纠正。”

Furthermore, short-term holders, typically a more speculative segment, realized losses as indicated by the sell-side risk ratio. This ratio, calculated by dividing the sum of short-term holder profits and losses realized on-chain by their cost bases, showed more losses than profits, which usually precedes a short-term market correction.

此外，短期持有者（通常是投机性较强的群体）实现了损失，如卖方风险比率所示。该比率是通过将链上实现的短期持有者利润和损失之和除以其成本基础计算得出的，显示损失多于利润，这通常发生在短期市场调整之前。

June also saw significant activity from Bitcoin miners. “Miner outflows, which often prelude market adjustments, mirrored patterns observed around previous Bitcoin halving events, when the reward for mining a block is halved,” said Ark. Such events historically lead to a decreased supply and potential price increases as market dynamics adjust to the new supply level.

六月比特币矿工也出现了重大活动。 Ark 表示：“矿工外流通常是市场调整的先兆，这反映了之前比特币减半事件中观察到的模式，即开采一个区块的奖励减半。”从历史上看，随着市场动态调整，此类事件会导致供应减少和潜在价格上涨。新的供应水平。

On the macroeconomic front, the report noted that US economic data had consistently underperformed expectations, with the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index registering the most significant negative deviations in a decade. Despite this, the Federal Reserve maintained a surprisingly hawkish tone, which could influence investor sentiment and financial market stability.

宏观经济方面，报告指出，美国经济数据持续不及预期，彭博美国经济惊喜指数出现十年来最严重负偏差。尽管如此，美联储仍保持出人意料的强硬基调，这可能会影响投资者情绪和金融市场稳定。

Corporate America also faced these challenges, with profit margins, which peaked in 2021, now declining as companies lose pricing power, Ark noted. This squeeze on profits is leading to price cuts across various sectors, further dampening the economic outlook.

阿克指出，美国企业界也面临着这些挑战，利润率在 2021 年达到顶峰，现在随着企业失去定价权而下降。利润的挤压导致各个行业的价格下调，进一步削弱了经济前景。

In the equity markets, there has been a notable increase in market capitalization concentration, reaching levels not seen since the Great Depression. “This concentration in larger entities with significant cash reserves could be an early indicator of a shifting economic landscape, which historically sees a breakout in favor of smaller cap stocks,” the report stated.

在股票市场，市值集中度显着上升，达到大萧条以来的最高水平。报告称：“这种对拥有大量现金储备的大型实体的集中可能是经济格局发生变化的早期指标，从历史上看，经济格局的突破有利于小盘股。”

At press time, BTC traded at $63,131.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 63,131 美元。