比特幣的第五波似乎正在拉伸

每週的比特幣圖表突出了遵循埃利奧特（Elliott Wave）理論的經典衝動序列，但越來越清楚的是，第五波並未在直線上展開。

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price above the $94,000 mark has brought a wave of bullish momentum not only to BTC but also to the broader crypto market. However, this rally has yet to gain real traction above the $95,000 mark, making it clear that the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 is still in progress.

比特幣價格高達94,000美元的近期漲幅不僅為BTC而且帶來了更廣泛的加密貨幣市場。但是，這次集會尚未獲得超過95,000美元的真正吸引力，這清楚地表明，預期的比特幣的第5浪突破超過100,000美元仍在進行中。

This elusive behavior is part of a wider trend that has seen the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 remain elusive. Instead, the apex cryptocurrency has encountered difficulties in sustaining itself above the crucial psychological price point.

這種難以捉摸的行為是一種更廣泛的趨勢的一部分，它使預期的比特幣的第5次浪潮超過100,000美元仍然難以捉摸。取而代之的是，Apex加密貨幣在維持至關重要的心理價格點上遇到了困難。

Bitcoin’s 5th Wave Appears To Be Stretching

比特幣的第五波似乎正在拉伸

A glance at the weekly Bitcoin chart reveals a classic impulsive sequence unfolding according to Elliott Wave Theory, but it's becoming increasingly evident that the 5th wave isn't unfolding in a straight line.

根據埃利奧特（Elliott）波浪理論，一瞥每週的比特幣圖表揭示了一個經典的衝動序列，但越來越明顯的是，第五波不會直線展開。

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin entered into a 5th wave formation in the middle of 2024, precisely when it began its initial rally towards the $100,000 level. This 5th wave formation is the last of a series of Elliott waves that spans back to late 2022. However, the structure points toward an extended 5th wave, a phenomenon where the final upward leg stretches longer than typical, and is filled with its own sub-impulse waves. This extension has prevented the BTC price from continuing to trade above $100,000.

如下圖所示，比特幣在2024年中期進入了第五波的形成，正是當它開始朝著100,000美元的水平開始其初始集會時。這個第五波的形成是一系列埃利奧特波的最後一個，它跨越了2022年末。但是，該結構指向延長的第五波，這是一種現象，即最終的上腿伸展的時間比典型的長度更長，並且充滿了自己的子突擊波。這項擴展使BTC價格無法繼續超過100,000美元的交易。

Currently, Bitcoin is displaying its 3rd sub-impulse wave. If this extended wave plays out fully, it could align with the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle with a peak above $170,000. According to a crypto analyst that goes by the pseudonymous name Charting Guy on social media platform X, this extended 5th wave scenario could also have implications for altcoins.

當前，比特幣正在顯示其第三個子爆破波。如果這種擴展的浪潮充分發揮作用，則可以與傳統的四年比特幣週期保持一致，高於170,000美元。根據社交媒體平台X上的化名名稱繪製人物的加密分析師的說法，這種擴展的第五波場景也可能對altcoins產生影響。

"The later stages of this extended 5th wave usually bring in more significant altcoin rallies," the analyst stated.

分析師說：“這一擴展的第五波的後期通常會引起更重要的山寨幣集會。”

Multiple Price Targets Offer Clues About BTC’s Path Forward

多個價格目標提供有關BTC前進道路的線索

Apart from the extended 5th wave scenario, the analyst offered other optimistic projections for Bitcoin. The $95,000 price level has been met as a target for a relief rally with Bitcoin’s latest breakout. However, this time, Charting Guy believes that this time, "we want to see more upside follow-through and ideally, a close above this level to continue toward the next target."

除了擴展的第五波方案外，分析師還為比特幣提供了其他樂觀的預測。 $ 95,000的價格水平已成為與比特幣最新突破的救濟集會的目標。但是，這次繪製蓋伊（Guy）認為這次是：“我們希望看到更多的上行跟隨，理想情況下，超過此級別的接近，以繼續朝著下一個目標邁進。”

The next targets on his radar include a potential double top forming around $109,000 and a bullish Fibonacci extension move toward $128,000, corresponding to the 1.414 Fibonacci level. Above that, a continued rally could push BTC toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $173,000, although this upper target is more of an optimistic long-term projection at the peak of the extended 5th wave.

他的雷達上的下一個目標包括潛在的雙層高層，約為109,000美元，而看漲的斐波那契延長向相當於1.414 fibonacci級別的延長。除此之外，持續的集會可能會將BTC推向1.618 fibonacci擴展近173,000美元，儘管該上部目標更像是在延長的第五波高峰時更樂觀的長期投影。

Despite the impressive surge in price, momentum indicators are offering a more cautious backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe exhibits a pattern of lower highs, which may indicate a bearish divergence.

儘管價格上漲令人印象深刻，但動量指標仍提供更謹慎的背景。每週時間框架上的相對強度指數（RSI）表現出較低高點的模式，這可能表明看跌差異。

This divergence typically signals weakening internal strength within the uptrend, even though the price is managing to reach new highs. It does not necessarily invalidate the possibility of higher prices but rather increases the likelihood of corrective phases along the way, which is typical behavior of the extended 5th wave.

這種差異通常標誌著削弱上升趨勢內部強度的信號，即使價格正在達到新的高點。它不一定使價格更高的可能性無效，而是增加了沿途糾正階段的可能性，這是擴展第五波的典型行為。

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $94,686. On-chain data shows an impending supply squeeze due to the ongoing wave of Bitcoin outflows from crypto exchanges. As more coins are being withdrawn from exchanges, selling pressure is expected to decrease, paving the way for a potential price surge.

在撰寫本文時，BTC的交易價格為94,686美元。鏈上的數據顯示，由於加密交易所的比特幣流出持續的浪潮，即將進行的供應擠壓。隨著越來越多的硬幣從交流中撤回，預計銷售壓力將減少，為潛在的價格上漲鋪平了道路。