Bitcoin's 5th Wave Appears To Be Stretching

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price above the $94,000 mark has brought a wave of bullish momentum not only to BTC but also to the broader crypto market. However, this rally has yet to gain real traction above the $95,000 mark, making it clear that the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 is still in progress.

This elusive behavior is part of a wider trend that has seen the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 remain elusive. Instead, the apex cryptocurrency has encountered difficulties in sustaining itself above the crucial psychological price point.

Bitcoin’s 5th Wave Appears To Be Stretching

A glance at the weekly Bitcoin chart reveals a classic impulsive sequence unfolding according to Elliott Wave Theory, but it's becoming increasingly evident that the 5th wave isn't unfolding in a straight line.

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin entered into a 5th wave formation in the middle of 2024, precisely when it began its initial rally towards the $100,000 level. This 5th wave formation is the last of a series of Elliott waves that spans back to late 2022. However, the structure points toward an extended 5th wave, a phenomenon where the final upward leg stretches longer than typical, and is filled with its own sub-impulse waves. This extension has prevented the BTC price from continuing to trade above $100,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is displaying its 3rd sub-impulse wave. If this extended wave plays out fully, it could align with the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle with a peak above $170,000. According to a crypto analyst that goes by the pseudonymous name Charting Guy on social media platform X, this extended 5th wave scenario could also have implications for altcoins.

"The later stages of this extended 5th wave usually bring in more significant altcoin rallies," the analyst stated.

Multiple Price Targets Offer Clues About BTC’s Path Forward

Apart from the extended 5th wave scenario, the analyst offered other optimistic projections for Bitcoin. The $95,000 price level has been met as a target for a relief rally with Bitcoin’s latest breakout. However, this time, Charting Guy believes that this time, "we want to see more upside follow-through and ideally, a close above this level to continue toward the next target."

The next targets on his radar include a potential double top forming around $109,000 and a bullish Fibonacci extension move toward $128,000, corresponding to the 1.414 Fibonacci level. Above that, a continued rally could push BTC toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $173,000, although this upper target is more of an optimistic long-term projection at the peak of the extended 5th wave.

Despite the impressive surge in price, momentum indicators are offering a more cautious backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe exhibits a pattern of lower highs, which may indicate a bearish divergence.

This divergence typically signals weakening internal strength within the uptrend, even though the price is managing to reach new highs. It does not necessarily invalidate the possibility of higher prices but rather increases the likelihood of corrective phases along the way, which is typical behavior of the extended 5th wave.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $94,686. On-chain data shows an impending supply squeeze due to the ongoing wave of Bitcoin outflows from crypto exchanges. As more coins are being withdrawn from exchanges, selling pressure is expected to decrease, paving the way for a potential price surge.