比特币的第五波似乎正在拉伸

每周的比特币图表突出了遵循埃利奥特（Elliott Wave）理论的经典冲动序列，但越来越清楚的是，第五波并未在直线上展开。

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price above the $94,000 mark has brought a wave of bullish momentum not only to BTC but also to the broader crypto market. However, this rally has yet to gain real traction above the $95,000 mark, making it clear that the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 is still in progress.

比特币价格高达94,000美元的近期涨幅不仅为BTC而且带来了更广泛的加密货币市场。但是，这次集会尚未获得超过95,000美元的真正吸引力，这清楚地表明，预期的比特币的第5浪突破超过100,000美元仍在进行中。

This elusive behavior is part of a wider trend that has seen the anticipated Bitcoin’s 5th wave breakout above $100,000 remain elusive. Instead, the apex cryptocurrency has encountered difficulties in sustaining itself above the crucial psychological price point.

这种难以捉摸的行为是一种更广泛的趋势的一部分，它使预期的比特币的第5次浪潮超过100,000美元仍然难以捉摸。取而代之的是，Apex加密货币在维持至关重要的心理价格点上遇到了困难。

Bitcoin’s 5th Wave Appears To Be Stretching

比特币的第五波似乎正在拉伸

A glance at the weekly Bitcoin chart reveals a classic impulsive sequence unfolding according to Elliott Wave Theory, but it's becoming increasingly evident that the 5th wave isn't unfolding in a straight line.

根据埃利奥特（Elliott）波浪理论，一瞥每周的比特币图表揭示了一个经典的冲动序列，但越来越明显的是，第五波不会直线展开。

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin entered into a 5th wave formation in the middle of 2024, precisely when it began its initial rally towards the $100,000 level. This 5th wave formation is the last of a series of Elliott waves that spans back to late 2022. However, the structure points toward an extended 5th wave, a phenomenon where the final upward leg stretches longer than typical, and is filled with its own sub-impulse waves. This extension has prevented the BTC price from continuing to trade above $100,000.

如下图所示，比特币在2024年中期进入了第五波的形成，正是当它开始朝着100,000美元的水平开始其初始集会时。这个第五波的形成是一系列埃利奥特波的最后一个，它跨越了2022年末。但是，该结构指向延长的第五波，这是一种现象，即最终的上腿伸展的时间比典型的长度更长，并且充满了自己的子突击波。这项扩展使BTC价格无法继续超过100,000美元的交易。

Currently, Bitcoin is displaying its 3rd sub-impulse wave. If this extended wave plays out fully, it could align with the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle with a peak above $170,000. According to a crypto analyst that goes by the pseudonymous name Charting Guy on social media platform X, this extended 5th wave scenario could also have implications for altcoins.

当前，比特币正在显示其第三个子爆破波。如果这种扩展的浪潮充分发挥作用，则可以与传统的四年比特币周期保持一致，高于170,000美元。根据社交媒体平台X上的化名名称绘制人物的加密分析师的说法，这种扩展的第五波场景也可能对altcoins产生影响。

"The later stages of this extended 5th wave usually bring in more significant altcoin rallies," the analyst stated.

分析师说：“这一扩展的第五波的后期通常会引起更重要的山寨币集会。”

Multiple Price Targets Offer Clues About BTC’s Path Forward

多个价格目标提供有关BTC前进道路的线索

Apart from the extended 5th wave scenario, the analyst offered other optimistic projections for Bitcoin. The $95,000 price level has been met as a target for a relief rally with Bitcoin’s latest breakout. However, this time, Charting Guy believes that this time, "we want to see more upside follow-through and ideally, a close above this level to continue toward the next target."

除了扩展的第五波方案外，分析师还为比特币提供了其他乐观的预测。 $ 95,000的价格水平已成为与比特币最新突破的救济集会的目标。但是，这次绘制盖伊（Guy）认为这次是：“我们希望看到更多的后续之后，理想情况下，超过此级别的接近，以继续朝着下一个目标迈进。”

The next targets on his radar include a potential double top forming around $109,000 and a bullish Fibonacci extension move toward $128,000, corresponding to the 1.414 Fibonacci level. Above that, a continued rally could push BTC toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $173,000, although this upper target is more of an optimistic long-term projection at the peak of the extended 5th wave.

他的雷达上的下一个目标包括潜在的双层高层，约为109,000美元，而看涨的斐波那契延长向相当于1.414 fibonacci级别的延长。除此之外，持续的集会可能会将BTC推向1.618 fibonacci扩展近173,000美元，尽管该上部目标更像是在延长的第五波高峰时更乐观的长期投影。

Despite the impressive surge in price, momentum indicators are offering a more cautious backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe exhibits a pattern of lower highs, which may indicate a bearish divergence.

尽管价格上涨令人印象深刻，但动量指标仍提供更谨慎的背景。每周时间框架上的相对强度指数（RSI）表现出较低高点的模式，这可能表明看跌差异。

This divergence typically signals weakening internal strength within the uptrend, even though the price is managing to reach new highs. It does not necessarily invalidate the possibility of higher prices but rather increases the likelihood of corrective phases along the way, which is typical behavior of the extended 5th wave.

这种差异通常标志着削弱上升趋势内部强度的信号，即使价格正在达到新的高点。它不一定使价格更高的可能性无效，而是增加了沿途纠正阶段的可能性，这是扩展第五波的典型行为。

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $94,686. On-chain data shows an impending supply squeeze due to the ongoing wave of Bitcoin outflows from crypto exchanges. As more coins are being withdrawn from exchanges, selling pressure is expected to decrease, paving the way for a potential price surge.

在撰写本文时，BTC的交易价格为94,686美元。链上的数据显示，由于加密交易所的比特币流出持续的浪潮，即将进行的供应挤压。随着越来越多的硬币从交流中撤回，预计销售压力将减少，为潜在的价格上涨铺平了道路。