这就是为什么比特币本月可能会让投资者感到惊讶的原因

比特币可能会在今年5月进入一个强大的阶段，这无视通常在传统市场上打击的季节性犹豫。

Bitcoin could be setting itself up for a strong month in May, surprising some who expect traditional seasonal trends to carry over from the stock market.

比特币可能会在5月的一个月内为自己设置一个月，这使一些希望传统季节性趋势从股市中延续下来的人感到惊讶。

Several macro and market-specific signals suggest that momentum may be rolling over, rather than continuing in a downward direction.

几个宏观和特定于市场的信号表明，势头可能正在逐渐发展，而不是继续向下方向。

Analysts have pointed to a growing connection between Bitcoin’s price and global money supply metrics like M2.

分析师指出，比特币的价格与M2等全球货币供应指标之间的联系不断增长。

This connection has been a topic of interest for several market participants, especially as major central banks continue cutting interest rates and expanding their balance sheets.

这种联系一直是几个市场参与者感兴趣的话题，尤其是当主要中央银行继续降低利率并扩大资产负债表时。

Rising Liquidity May Spark Further Bitcoin Gains

流动性上升可能会引发更多的比特币增长

The thinking goes that, as central banks increase liquidity—through rate cuts or asset purchases—Bitcoin tends to rise.

这种想法是，随着中央银行增加流动性（通过削减税率或资产的购买），Bitcoin往往会上升。

With expansionary policies taking hold in major economies, this trend may be repeating. Data from Kaduna shows that Bitcoin price action often trails M2 movements by roughly 90 days, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could continue moving higher in the coming weeks.

随着扩张性政策在主要经济体中持有，这种趋势可能会重复。卡杜纳（Kaduna）的数据表明，比特币价格行动通常会使M2的动作大约落后90天，这表明加密货币在接下来的几周内可能会继续移动更高。

This view is further supported by past performance. Over the last 12 years, Bitcoin has posted average May returns of nearly 8%, rendering it one of the best-performing months on average.

过去的性能进一步支持了这种观点。在过去的12年中，比特币的平均五月回报率近8％，使其平均是表现最好的月份之一。

While crypto price action is notoriously volatile and unpredictable in the short term, May has statistically clocked in with more bullish performance than bearish performance.

尽管众所周知，在短期内，加密货币价格动作却是不可预测的，但梅在统计学上的表现比看跌性能更高。

At the same time, institutional flows are also rolling over. Recent ETF data shows that investors are continuing to allocate capital to Bitcoin in droves.

同时，机构流也在翻滚。最近的ETF数据表明，投资者正在继续将资本分配给比特币。

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw a single day of net inflows totaling nearly $1 billion, pushing its total past $42 billion.

贝莱德（BlackRock）的iShares比特币信托基金（Ishares Bitcoin Trust）一日净流入总计近10亿美元，将其总计420亿美元推向了。

This surge in demand on a single day speaks to the confidence that investors have in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, which could fuel further price appreciation.

这一天的需求激增表明了投资者对比特币长期轨迹的信心，这可能会推动进一步的价格升值。

Bitcoin Price Action vs. Global Money Supply (M2) | Via Kaduna

比特币价格行动与全球货币供应（M2）|通过Kaduna

Moreover, Bitcoin is increasingly moving independently from equities.

此外，比特币越来越多地独立于股票移动。

Analysts have noted its divergence from major indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, interpreting it as a sign that crypto is no longer just a proxy for risk assets, but a maturing store of value with its own momentum.

分析师已经指出，它与标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克等主要索引的差异，将其解释为一个迹象表明，加密货币不再仅仅是风险资产的代理，而是具有自己动力的成熟价值。

Of course, economic updates—such as interest rate changes or inflation data—could create some turbulence in the market.

当然，经济更新（例如利率变化或通货膨胀数据）可能会在市场上造成一些动荡。

But the combination of rising liquidity, institutional adoption, and relative strength positions Bitcoin well for a potentially strong performance in the month ahead.

但是，在未来一个月的流动性，机构采用率和相对力量位置的增长相结合，比特币在未来的一个月内表现出色。